Things started well for the Jets in 2022. They were in the playoff hunt by Week 12, sitting at 7-4 with one of the fiercest defenses in football. They unravelled quickly from there though. Their issues at quarterback finally caught up with them as the offense cratered down the stretch. Through their final six games they averaged just 11 points and they finished at the foot of the AFC East for the fifth time in six seasons.
Roster changes
After years of frustration at quarterback the Jets will be hopeful that their search for a franchise-defining talent is over with the acquisition of Aaron Rodgers. The Packers legend and four-time NFL MVP has been joined in New York by a handful of former Green Bay teammates, including Allen Lazard, Randall Cobb, and Adrian Amos. The Jets also brought in former Ravens safety Chuck Clark and Chiefs receiver Mecole Hardman.
The team might have not lost any big names, but there were several contributors who made their way out of New York this season. The most surprising of these was Elijah Moore, who was traded away to the Browns. They also lost starters in guard Nate Herbig, tackle George Fant, defensive tackle Sheldon Rankins, and safety Lamarcus Joyner.
Coaching situation
2023 will mark Robert Saleh’s third year as the head coach of the Jets and it feels like a crucial year for this coaching staff. The urgency to turn things around was clear when the team parted ways with offensive coordinator Mike LaFleur, offensive line coach John Benton, and wide receiver coach Miles Austin. The Jets then hired Nathaniel Hackett as their new offensive coordinator, a position he held in Green Bay for three years until 2021.
On the defensive side of the ball things are, by contrast, very much the same. Jeff Ulbrich returns for his third season as the defensive coordinator and the rest of his staff from last season all remain in post.
2023 NFL Draft
| Pick | Player |
| 1.15 | Will McDonald IV – EDGE, Iowa State |
| 2.43 | Joe Tippmann – IOL, Wisconsin |
| 4.120 | Carter Warren – OT, Pittsburgh |
| 5.143 | Israel Abanikanda – RB, Pittsburgh |
| 6.184 | Zaire Barnes – LB, Western Michigan |
| 6.204 | Jarrick Bernard-Converse – CB, LSU |
| 6.220 | Zack Kuntz – TE, Old Dominion |
The Jets raised some eyebrows with their first pick. Whilst McDonald has the measurables and pass rushing profile of a first round pick, his play strength and major inconsistencies in run defense present legitimate concerns when projecting to the NFL. As for the rest of the class, it felt solid without ever being spectacular. More than anything it felt noticeably short on immediate contributors, which is all the more perplexing given the arrival of Aaron Rodgers.
Offense
You can’t talk about the Jets’ offense without mentioning the acquisition of future Hall of Famer Aaron Rodgers. Whilst the deal took its time and wasn’t cheap, it marks a massive upgrade at quarterback. The Jets often fell short in 2022 because of a wholly inadequate quarterback situation, and that shouldn’t be a problem this season. Even if Rodgers is no longer at his peak, he is still just two seasons removed from back-to-back MVP awards.
There’s some promising weapons at his disposal too. Garrett Wilson flashed elite potential as a rookie, racking up 1,103 yards on his 83 catches, despite a revolving door at quarterback. If he can quickly establish a connection with Rodgers we could see something very special. Their running back room, helmed by the excellent Breece Hall, is also a very promising group with a handful of players who can be plus contributors. The rest of the receiving corps is a little less inspiring, but the Jets will hope that Rodgers can act as a rising tide that lifts all boats.
The big question will be whether the offensive line can hold up, particularly at tackle. Duane Brown is 37 and coming off a season where he missed five games. Mekhi Becton on the other hand has played in just one game over the past two seasons. We have seen the impact that poor pass protection can have on aging quarterbacks. If the Jets are forced to go to their backups then it could be tough to meet expectations on offense.
Defense
After a rough start in 2021, the Jets’ defense finally found their feet in Robert Saleh’s second season. They finished fifth in DVOA in 2022, despite having the hardest schedule in the NFL per Football Outsiders. A big reason for their success and for optimism in 2023 is their talent in the trenches. Quinnen Williams has developed into one of the very best interior rushers in the NFL. At edge they have John Franklin-Myers and Carl Lawson who combined for 100 pressures in 2022, as well as two first round picks, Jermaine Johnson and Will McDonald as backups. In Bryce Huff they also have one of the best designated pass rushers in football.
The talent doesn’t stop there. With the arrival of new talent in Sauce Gardner and DJ Reed and a shift in coverage identity, the secondary took a major leap in 2022. After ranking 22nd in split safety coverages in 2021, the Jets jumped to fifth and the results followed. The team ranked 32nd in dropback EPA in 2021, before jumping to sixth in 2022. With the arrival of Adrian Amos those numbers could get even better in 2023.
The one worry is the lack of depth on the interior defensive line. Whilst Sheldon Rankins and Nathan Shepherd might not be household names, their departure leaves little outside of Quinnen Williams. They combined for 33 run stops in 2022 and their ability to occupy blockers on the interior was also a key reason that the Jets were able to generate the third highest rate of pressures whilst logging a league-low 14.9% blitz rate. Whether they can continue to play this way without them remains to be seen.
Prediction
With the talent at their disposal, the Jets’ defense should once again rank in the upper echelons of the NFL in 2023. The question is going to be which version of Aaron Rodgers we see. Will we see the 2021 MVP version, or did 2022 mark the start of a decline? The reality is probably somewhere in between and this should be a team pushing for a wildcard spot at the very least.
