Some draft picks are steals. Some represent outstanding value. Others are simply the perfect match between the prospect and their new team’s scheme. These four players are just that and project to be amongst the most exciting rookies to watch when the 2023 season rolls around.
Bijan Robinson to the Atlanta Falcons
There’s plenty of debate to be had around whether taking a running back in the top ten is wise, but purely from the perspective of scheme fit and entertainment, Robinson is a slam dunk. He is easily the best running back prospect I’ve ever scouted and is coming off a season that saw him set a college football record with a ridiculous 104 forced missed tackles.
Not only does he fit Arthur Smith’s run-heavy offense like a glove. His ability to be a plus contributor as a pass catcher also enhances a roster that is already trending towards positionless football. The Falcons can field Bijan along with Drake London, Kyle Pitts, Jonnu Smith, and Cordarrelle Patterson. If you are an opposing defense, how do you even begin to categorise that personnel grouping? You can bet that Atlanta is going to be giving opposing coaches sleepless nights next season.
CJ Stroud to the Houston Texans
This one is perfect. The Texans landed their quarterback of the future and frankly they couldn’t have landed a player better suited to their new offensive scheme. New head coach DeMeco Ryans is bringing along former 49ers passing game coordinator Bobby Slowik to be the Texans’ offensive coordinator and we can expect some variation of the Shanahan offensive to take root in Houston.
That scheme is built around some key principles, namely rhythm-based passing that seeks to attack opposing defenses over the middle of the field. Stroud is the best in structure thrower in this draft class and his ability to consistently hit the right read at the right time and throw with precision and placement is exactly what this Texans team needs.
Zay Flowers to the Baltimore Ravens
Times are changing in Baltimore. With Greg Roman out and Todd Monken in at offensive coordinator, the offense that we are likely to see in 2023 will be very different. The days of heavy personnel and a run-first offense are in the rearview mirror. Instead, Monken brings a wide open passing attack that looks to spread the field horizontally whilst also taking chances downfield.
All of this makes Flowers the perfect fit. He gives Lamar Jackson a dynamic YAC weapon that can cause all sorts of issues on drags, sweeps, and crossing routes. He also has the straight line speed to be a three level threat and give the Ravens’ receiving corps an added dimension. This is the kind of versatile receiving threat that Todd Monken can make use of.
Dalton Kincaid to the Buffalo Bills
This might not have been the flashiest pick, but Kincaid could quite plausibly be the most impactful rookie pass catcher in 2023. It became apparent down the stretch last season that the Bills needed more receiving options behind Stefon Diggs. They also made a concerted effort to embrace heavier personnel groupings as a means of improving their running game.
Kincaid gives them that pass catching prowess, with just two drops on 128 career catchable targets. He also allows the Bills to get creative with their personnel, providing the opportunity for two tight end sets with Dawson Knox. This expands opportunities in the run game but does so without sacrificing any of the passing game potency that has characterised this offense through recent seasons.
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