It’s Week 15 and once again we have a handful of interesting questions to consider. Who is the best of the 7-6 AFC teams? Is it time to hit the panic button about Detroit? What should we make of the Tommy DeVito-led Giants?
Our team of Kevin Sayer, William Lane, and Jack Brentnall are back to answer this and more.
The AFC is now home to six 7-6 teams, all of whom are pushing for a playoff spot. Who is the best of the bunch?
Kev: If we’re making the assumption the Dolphins take the AFC East then I don’t think any team would be happy about facing the Bills on Wildcard weekend. Whilst they’ve been very up and down all season they are the most dangerous. The Josh Allen “X factor” always makes anything possible with them offensively.
The Broncos are an interesting discussion point. It feels so long ago when they were mocked for their loss to the Dolphins. It really shows how long an NFL season is and how much can change. Defensively they can be a problem, but I’m not sure how much you can trust them on offense. This is a unit that has topped 30 points just twice this season. I’d certainly trust Payton’s experience in playoff football and their ability to keep games close.
William: The Bills have been underperformers all year, but they are still the best team in this group. That said, I do think that they will miss the playoffs thanks to a very tough upcoming schedule. After Buffalo I think that the Broncos are the next best in this group. Their defensive turnaround has been incredible, now the offense needs to do its part.
After Denver, give me the Texans. Houston may have had an abysmal game against the Jets on Sunday, but this just feels like a minor setback. That Jets defense currently ranks third in DVOA and has caused problems for good teams all seasons. If this Texans roster can get healthy again I really like them. The Stroud-Collins connection is enough to keep the offense afloat.
Personally I am completely out on both the Steelers and the Colts. I don’t think that they have the firepower to make it into the playoffs in such a tough group. The Bengals on the other hand do, though they have been digging themselves out of the hole they dug early on in the season. Their playoff chances will simply be based on what goes on around them, and I don’t see them catching Cleveland.
Jack: I think the Bills are comfortably the best of the bunch. The offense has been elite all season and currently sits third in DVOA, behind only the 49ers and Dolphins. Even their defense, which has struggled at times this year, has been about league average despite a raft of injuries at key positions.
The Steelers and Colts have real quarterback question marks that I think preclude them from this conversation. That is also true of the Bengals to a lesser extent. The Texans are now without their two top pass catchers and it is difficult to overlook just how poor they looked last week against a Zach Wilson-led Jets team.
The only other team I’d consider is the Broncos. The defense has been outstanding and they have earned some impressive wins. I’m just not sure I trust this offense enough to step up against the best in big moments.
The Lions face a hot Broncos team this weekend after a bad loss to the Bears in Week 14. How worried are you about this Detroit team?
Kev: I think defensively it’s a big concern. Losing Alim McNeil in the middle of the defensive line is a problem. He was tied with Aidan Hutchinson for the most run stops on the team and had five sacks and six tackles for loss. Outside of Hutchinson there seems very little to concern you as an opposing offensive coordinator. James Houston, last year’s surprise package, is also still a few weeks away from fitness further compounding the problem.
Earlier on in the season this defense was forcing turnovers, but they’ve now dried up. It feels like Detroit will probably limp to the NFC North title but it’s difficult to see any postseason success, especially if teams are going to continually rack up 30+ points on them.
You never know – the joy of finally getting over the hump and claiming a divisional title may lift the team’s confidence. Think of the 2021 Bengals who lost three of their last six regular season games before going on to appear in the Super Bowl after years of drought.
William: I won’t lie, I am a lot more concerned now than I was a couple of weeks ago. This defense is becoming a legitimate issue. Games now feel completely reliant on their offense. I love this offense, don’t get me wrong, but we saw on Sunday what happens when it sputters. The play calling against Chicago was far from the level that it has been all season and it led to an unlikely upset.
Another reason for concern is the lack of turnovers. The Lions have forced just 14 turnovers on the year. Their turnover differential is currently -6, with Jared Goff having 11 on the year. He is going to have to play safer football if they are to make it out of the first round of the playoffs.
As it currently stands they feel like a lock for the NFC North title, but I am concerned with how they fare against top dogs. Dallas, Philly, and San Fran all feel like they are miles ahead of this team. They are more complete of a team than Detroit, and for the most part, flaunt a better offense. I think that Detroit should beat Denver, but the momentum is currently not in their favor.
Jack: I don’t want to be that guy, but three weeks ago I mentioned that I had legitimate concerns about the Lions defense and I thought they could lose to the Packers on Thanksgiving. Fast forward to Week 15 and they have lost two of their last three and allowed 26+ points in five straight games.
Make no mistake – this is a problem entirely of the defense’s making. Since their bye in Week 9, the Lions rank 29th in EPA per play on defense. They are also allowing the second highest dropback success rate in the NFL, behind only the Arizona Cardinals.
Whilst this is an offensive-driven league, that only goes so far. At some point you have to show a degree of competency on defense. I still think they walk away with the NFC North title, but if they don’t turn things around just a little on defense I can’t see them having any sort of success in the postseason.
Tommy DeVito and the Giants are quietly on a three game winning run and face the Saints this weekend. What do you make of this team?
Kev: This season has had many backup quarterback stories. Tommy DeVito has become a real character and it is fun to see the fans embrace it. In some ways it has hidden the muddle that the Giants find themselves in after paying Daniel Jones. Whether last season’s playoff victory over the Vikings was the final confirmation the top brass needed to pay Jones or not I’m not sure.
It must be concerning to see an undrafted rookie who’s mother makes his evening meals and does his washing, playing better than your franchise quarterback who will take up $47 million of your cap space next season.
I’d like to see them attack the draft with a plan of getting some offensive firepower. At this point you have basically made your bed with the quarterback situation – the least you can do is put some decorative pillows on it!
William: Tommy DeVito has been an incredibly fun story for the Giants, but to me that is all this amounts to. This team just doesn’t have the talent to do much more. In a weak NFC, some say that the 5-8 Giants may have a chance to sneak into the playoffs. I can’t agree with that though, not least because their upcoming schedule does them absolutely zero favors.
DeVito’s final drive against Green Bay was impressive, but honestly Green Bay beat themselves in that game. It was a contest where they made plenty of mistakes and just didn’t look like the same team from weeks prior. If the Saints limit the mistakes and turnovers then this one shouldn’t be close.
I wouldn’t entirely rule out an upset though. This is a Saints team that feels like a bit of an underperformer on offense, with Derek Carr not looking great and being banged up. New York has a chance!
Jack: I think we will learn a lot over the last four weeks of the season, not least because the Giants have to play the Eagles twice. Based on what we have seen so far though, there is definitely something there. DeVito’s rise is obviously a fun (and often entertaining) story, but he isn’t just a gimmick.
Through the past three weeks he has five touchdowns and no interceptions. He is second in adjusted completion rate and passer rating. He is ninth in EPA+CPOE composite, a metric that measures the value of a play and how much the quarterback is responsible for that value. DeVito is also 16th in success rate, ahead of the likes of Jalen Hurts and CJ Stroud.
All of this is bound to regress a little – the question is how far. The Giants have played themselves out of the Caleb Williams/Drake Maye sweepstakes with these recent wins. Can DeVito do enough to start conversations about 2024? We know how much the New York market loves a big story. I wouldn’t be totally surprised if talk of a quarterback controversy started brewing in New York over the offseason.
Are there any particular matchups, be it coaches, players, or teams, that you are excited about in Week 15?
Kev: I’m interested to see which Packers team turns up this weekend against the Buccaneers. Was last week’s loss against the Giants a blip and can Jordan Love continue to lead this young offense? The Packers could very well win out and challenge a stuttering Detroit team. After Tampa Bay they have winnable contests against Carolina, Minnesota and finishing with Chicago at home.
The Bucs on the other hand sit in a three-way losing record tie in the miserable NFC South. They do however control their own destiny to make the postseason. Rachaad White has given the team a competitive ground game after struggling to move the ball earlier in the season. It could be a frigid day on Sunday and whilst I’m not expecting any wild scoring it’s an interesting matchup for both teams due to their current circumstances.
William: I am excited for the matchup that will be taking place in Detroit this Saturday as two of the league’s best will line up across from each other. Amon-Ra St. Brown will have his work cut out for him against possibly the best young cornerback the league has to offer in Patrick Surtain II.
One thing that is for certain is that Surtain knows how to limit any extra yardage. He has held his opponents to just 169 yards after the catch this season, meaning that St. Brown may struggle to find big plays. On the other hand, slowing down Amon-Ra is no easy feat. He is currently sixth among receivers with 410 yards after the catch, so it should be interesting to see who wins out in this battle.
Jack: It might not be the most meaningful game, but I want to see how Justin Fields fares against the Browns defense. Cleveland has had one of the best units in football this season, leading the NFL in a boatload of meaningful defensive statistics. They have had their way with some of the game’s best offenses.
Fields has looked better through recent weeks, although the question remains as to whether he has done enough to prevent the Bears from drafting his replacement in April. Games like this will help to answer that question. A big performance here could help to move the needle in his favour. If the Browns force him into mistakes early and often, expect the quarterback discourse to reach new heights.