It’s Week 16 and we have a bunch of interesting questions to consider. Who deserves to be Coach of the Year? Who will come out on top in the 49ers-Ravens matchup? And what should we make of this Baker Mayfield renaissance?
Our team of Kevin Sayer, William Lane, Tayyib Abu, and Jack Brentnall are back to answer this and more.
We aren’t at the end of the season just yet but debate about award winners is heating up. One of the most fascinating races is for Coach of the Year. Who would be your pick and why?
Kev: The best coach award should obviously go to the best coach. That’s Kyle Shanahan. The offensive masterclass being displayed each and every week has at times been unstoppable. NFL owners and GMs will no doubt be using the Shanahan coaching tree as an endorsement for their next head coach hire.
Everyone is looking for the next Shanahan. Yes he’s got a great roster, which he’s had a significant hand in creating. He’s also had quarterback adversity (granted not this season) which has been a significant theme in the NFL this year. Yet every week the game plan and play calling is nothing short of astounding. This iteration of the 49ers is on pace to outscore any previous in franchise history. Opposing teams simply cannot stop them.
The Coach of The Year so rarely goes to the best team’s coach. Whilst you could shout out DeMeco Ryans or Shane Steichen on the great job they’ve done through injuries (especially the latter), cast your mind back 12 months and Brian Daboll is being anointed Coach Of The Year. It’s a yearly award I get it, but Shanahan is simply the best around right now.
Tayyib: I would vote for Kevin Stefanski. It is almost staggering that the Browns have nine wins despite all the issues and injuries they have experienced. Nearly 27% of Cleveland’s allotted salary cap is on injured reserve. Nick Chubb, Jack Conklin, and Jedrick Wills were massive losses. Moreover, the Browns have had weekly injury concerns to Amari Cooper, Denzel Ward and Grant Delpit.
Add that to the chaos of the quarterback situation and how Stefanski has kept this locker room united, and fighting is a miracle. Contrast Cleveland’s situation to the Jets, and it underlines how well Stefanski has done.
And lastly, Stefanski must be credited with hiring veteran coach Jim Schwartz. Hiring the right coordinators is a critical skill for any head coach, and Stefanski has hit a home run bringing in Schwartz. The Browns now have an 88% chance of making the playoffs and will challenge for the AFC’s fourth seed.
William: There are two candidates that really stand out to me for Coach of The Year. Kevin Stefanski of the Cleveland Browns, and Kyle Shanahan of the San Francisco 49ers. Both of them have an impressive resume that makes them both very deserving of this award. But in my mind there are a couple of boxes that need to be checked off in order to win that award.
For starters, something that I find very important is a coach’s ability to overcome. And nobody has had to overcome more than Kevin Stefanski this season. He is currently on his fourth different quarterback of the season and is still winning meaningful games.
Speaking of wins, quality wins is another factor. Whilst the 49ers boast a handful of impressive wins over very good teams, the Browns have a win over them. Cleveland’s defense held this 49ers offense to just 17 points and walked away with a huge upset victory with PJ Walker at quarterback. That is why Kevin Stefanski is my pick. His ability to improvise and overcome adversity in a competitive AFC speaks volumes.
Jack: I think that there are a bunch of deserving candidates but Kyle Shanahan would be my pick. What he has been able to build in San Francisco is incredible. People will harp on about the talent on that roster, but let’s not forget that he is doing this with Mr Irrelevant at quarterback and, outside of Trent Williams, a no-name offensive line.
This 49ers offense is setting a historic pace. They lead the league in dropback EPA and are currently on course for the best mark of any offense in the last decade. Add in a stellar defense and an 11-3 record and I think you have everything you need to crown Shanahan Coach of the Year.
The clash between the 49ers and Ravens looks set to be the game of the week. Who do you think comes out victorious, and why?
Kev: Firstly what a stunning Christmas treat of a game – it’s definitely better than watching the Vikings get thumped by the Saints a few years ago. Time will tell if this is a preview for a Super Bowl repeat – there’s lots of twists and turns to come before February. What plan will the Ravens deploy to stop Purdy and McCaffrey?
Pro Bowl candidate Justin Madubuike needs to continue his run of form by providing pressure up the middle. The linebackers Queen and Smith don’t lack speed, with Smith almost certainly being tasked with filling the rushing lanes to cover McCaffrey. The 49ers receiving corps boasts three of the top thirty in the NFL in receiving yards. The Ravens lead the league in sacks but where do you concentrate your efforts against the plethora of attacking options?
The Ravens boast an offense that can score quickly and achieve explosive gains, but they have suffered major setbacks in running back injuries. I wonder if we’ll see an increase in designed quarterback runs for Lamar Jackson? I think the 49ers will have enough to get this done and will eventually build a comfortable lead in the second half of the game. At the moment they seem unstoppable.
Tayyib: Home advantage might tip this to San Francisco. This is a fascinating game, and I am excited to see what answers Kyle Shanahan finds for Mike Macdonald’s defense. The Ravens are the best defense at simulating pressures, disguising coverages and manipulating matchups. Kyle Hamilton and Roquan Smith are enjoying Pro Bowl seasons.
But the Niners’ offense is the best in the NFL. They have so many options and so many ways of winning games. If it’s not Deebo Samuel, it’s Brandon Aiyuk; if it’s not Aiyuk, it’s Christian McCaffrey. I think the Niners will try to get their quick passing game and outstanding screen game going. Those quick hitters could yield significant gains against an aggressive defense. Kyle Juszczyk could play a pivotal role as well. The 49ers love using Juszczyk and his ability at blocking, while being a legitimate carrying threat could be the joker in the pack.
William: Santa did not hold back this holiday season when it comes to giving us an incredible matchup for Christmas. This is potentially a Super Bowl preview as the top dawgs of their respective conferences are set to face off. But this shouldn’t phase Kyle Shanahan and his red hot 49ers team one bit. They have thumped some of the best teams in the NFC, like Dallas and Philadelphia, and are ready for a new challenger.
But if anybody could take down the 49ers it would be Baltimore. Lamar Jackson’s effectiveness as both a runner, as well as under center could cause problems for this 49ers defense. My one concern is how much help that he will be getting from his receivers. While Odell has looked much improved, we still have yet to really see any consistency from others. That 49ers defense absolutely dominates over the middle of the field, meaning Baltimore will have to get creative finding opportunities for Isaiah Likely.
Their defense is strong though. Baltimore currently leads the league in sacks. They are also second in yards per game, allowing an average of just 261. If they can find a way to limit this explosive 49ers offense then I’d say to just go ahead and give them the win. They are my pick for what should be a very fun game for Christmas.
Jack: I think this will be a fascinating contest. I feel comfortable saying that these are the two best teams in the NFL and they would be my picks for a Super Bowl matchup if the season ended today.
If I am picking a winner though I am leaning towards the 49ers. The Ravens have been outstanding all season but I am starting to worry about attrition on their roster. Last week they lost dynamic rookie back Keaton Mitchell. They have already lost Mark Andrews for the season and both Ronnie Stanley and Odell Beckham Jr are listed as questionable for this matchup.
When you’re trying to keep pace with this 49ers offense and have to put up points on their impressive defense, I think that makes it a pretty tough ask.
We haven’t talked about the Buccaneers much this season but Baker Mayfield is coming off a great showing last week against the Packers. He has a good test this weekend against the Jaguars. What do you make of his season so far and do you think he’s the franchise starter moving forward?
Kev: I wonder if the top brass in Tampa are equally as surprised. We know Tampa had some book balancing to do following their Super Bowl success and repeat attempts. Mayfield brings experience, a certain attitude and moxy to the Bucs and they’ve certainly overachieved on pre season expectations.
I don’t think anyone will be getting ahead of themselves. Their record is average and they’ve benefitted hugely from a poor uncompetitive division. Mayfield’s contract voids next year but I certainly feel he’s earned an extension giving the roster some stability whilst they can get younger on offense and eventually find the long term replacement.
Tayyib: He’s the starter for next season! Is Baker the franchise quarterback and long-term building block? I am still unsure. It still feels like his performances are too volatile. The highs are incredible, but the lows are frustrating. His QBR high is 91.6; the lowest is 22.6. And the other question is if Baker is the long-term answer, how does that fit in with Mike Evans and Chris Godwin’s career trajectories?
However, Baker has matured and is now much more consistent and calm mentally. He has led the Bucs through some tricky moments and demonstrated exemplary leadership. That is a tick in his favour.
William: Baker Mayfield and the Bucs have been a fun story to keep up with. It hasn’t always been sunshine and rainbows though as there have been tons of ups and downs. They currently boast an average record and are beneficiaries of a weak division. But one man’s trash is another man’s treasure, and that is what I think Baker Mayfield will be.
For starters, Todd Bowles stinks – he doesn’t bring anything to this team. In my mind this team has got to move on from him while there are still plenty of replacements available. As for Mayfield, I think that they should keep him. If you are to move on from your head coach then you will need a guy for the team to rally behind. Baker Mayfield is that guy.
His competitive aura shows week in and week out and it will always keep him rostered. The Buccaneers should go ahead and ink him in for another 2-3 years and ride it out. He has proven that he can lead a team to the playoffs. It is hard to say where it all went wrong in Cleveland, but he has the chance to make Tampa Bay a long term home.
Jack: I think that he will be. It is tough to move on from him after the performances he has put in this season. I was a big doubter of Baker and this Bucs offense before the season but it has been a pleasant surprise to see him prove me (and plenty of others) wrong.
The interesting question here is what kind of deal they would have to sign him to. Having him on a one-year $4 million contract has been an absolute bargain, but he will obviously want much more in the summer. Will he demand Daniel Jones level money? If so, I’m not sure I could stomach that.
If I was running the Bucs I’d take a similar approach to the one I think the Giants should have taken with Jones last summer. Sign Baker to the transition tag and see if he can replicate this level of performance again in 2024. If he can then I would be more than comfortable committing to a long term deal.
Are there any particular matchups, be it coaches, players, or teams, that you are excited about in Week 16?
Kev: I highlighted the Packers-Buccaneers game last week that had potential playoff implications for both teams. I see something similar in this week’s Falcons-Colts matchup. The Colts staff have done a tremendous job keeping them in the race for the AFC South (what is it with the Southern divisions this season?!?!).
The Falcons probably need to win out to get a playoff berth, yet is there any team that has done so little with so much offensively? They were one of the best rushing teams in the league last season. They added talent in the offseason yet have regressed hugely. Pass catching talents Drake London and Kyle Pitts have to do so much with so few targets. News appears to be that they’ll make another quarterback change benching Ridder again. They’ve been a huge disappointment for me.
The Colts seem to be playing with a freedom of zero expectation. Whilst the Falcons are one point favourites they seem to be on a slide right now and this final home game could really be the final nail in the coffin and giving the people of Georgia a dismal Christmas. One final thought as Black Monday approaches – is Arthur Smith really as safe as everyone is saying?
Tayyib: I cannot wait to see how the Eagles respond following their Monday night loss. Philly could be 0-5 in their last five. A Valdez-Scantling drop and a crazy game in the rain against Buffalo could have easily gone against them.
Philly’s third down defense is one of the worst in the league, and I doubt Matt Patricia can change much quickly. Their pass rush has also underperformed in recent weeks and divisional games are always challenging. Washington took Philly to overtime. While the Giants are not a great team, Brian Daboll will have his team fired up and ready to cause an upset. That alone makes this a fascinating game. The pressure is sky-high in Philadelphia. They must win. All teams lose games; the best teams don’t endure losing streaks. The Eagles are.
William: Despite hating their guts, I am excited to keep my eyes on the Buffalo Bills. Even if they are playing a Chargers team that feels like a cruel joke, I can’t help but watch and see if they slip up. As it currently stands they are 8-6 and on the outside looking in on the playoffs.
Another loss could seal their season and I wouldn’t be surprised as that is how good this AFC is. And where many feel like there is zero way they lose to Los Angeles, keep in mind they will have the interim coach boost. Never underestimate a team that has absolutely nothing to lose, especially when they have some of the weapons to do it.
If the Chargers are to upset the Buffalo Bills, it’ll be because of their disruptive defense. They currently rank sixth in sacks, and that Buffalo offensive line hasn’t been good this year. I could be making a mountain out of a molehill, but I can’t help but feel a little excited. Maybe it is the thought of Buffalo missing the playoffs that excites me this much, so I will keep an eye out for this to happen.
Jack: There’s a degree of morbid curiosity to this one, but I want to see what Bryce Young and the Carolina Panthers can do against this Packers defense. Green Bay was embarrassed against the Bucs last week, with Baker Mayfield putting up a perfect passer rating at Lambeau Field.
The past week has seen mounting calls for Packers defensive coordinator Joe Barry to lose his job and even Packers players have taken to social media to decry the situation. This feels like a make-or-break game for Green Bay in more ways then one, but if the defense finds a way to embarrass themselves against a dire Panthers offense it may be time for Barry to go.