It’s Week 14 and once again we have a handful of interesting questions to consider. Should we be buying into the Packers hype? How will things shape out in the NFC East? And what are the matchups to watch this weekend?
Our team of Kevin Sayer, William Lane, and Jack Brentnall are back to answer this and more.
The Packers surprised everyone last week with an upset over the heavily favoured Chiefs. Do you think this team is legit? How far do you think they can go this season?
Kev: I think it’s interesting how long a month is in the NFL. Five or six weeks ago the Green Bay offense looked disorganised and lacking “something”. Call it leadership or organisation – something appeared off. Receivers were running the wrong routes and there was a complete lack of firepower.
Fast forward to today and you could argue no quarterback has shown more positive progress than Jordan Love. In the past five weeks his 11-2 touchdown to interception ratio is up there with the best in the league. Christian Watson is looking like the threat he was last season and Jayden Reed is realising his potential and providing the offense with something they’ve not had since peak Randall Cobb.
There’s always a team that comes from the back of the pack and peaks at the right time. How far they progress will depend on both sides of the line and how they can compete against the heavyweights of San Francisco and Philadelphia. I think progress for this young team is a postseason win. This sets them up to build on this impressive crop of youngsters (on both sides of the ball) into the offseason and the next stage of the LaFleur coaching tenure.
William: Not too long ago we were talking about how Green Bay was an absolute mess of a roster. Guys were running the wrong routes and were not seeing eye-to-eye. Yet here we are today and this team is hitting its stride at just the right time. Jordan Love has led some impressive victories against guys like Justin Herbert, Jared Goff, and even Patrick Mahomes.
Limiting mistakes has been the name of the game and it is getting them some quality wins against good teams. There has been the re-emergence of Christian Watson, which has paved the way for other guys to find their feet, with Jayden Reed looking like a hit as a rookie.
As for how far they go, I don’t see this team getting much further than perhaps one playoff win. This feels like a solid roster with a fringe top 10 defense, but I am not sure they have the pieces to compete with the best of the NFC. Teams like the 49ers, Eagles, and Cowboys are still miles ahead of the rest of the conference. This has been a pleasant turnaround for Matt LaFleur and Joe Barry, who looked to be on shaky ground only a few weeks ago.
Jack: As a Packers fan I am trying not to get too carried away with their current run of form, but you have to be impressed by what they have put on tape. The mistakes and miscommunications on offense have started to disappear. Jordan Love is playing with more confidence and poise. Even Joe Barry’s defense is starting to look fairly competent!
Since their Week 6 bye, the Packers offense sits seventh in EPA per play and 11th in success rate. On defense they are 19th and 17th respectively. Let’s not forget that they have done this despite suffering some really bad injury luck and as the youngest roster in football.
As for how far they can go, I think this is clearly a team that can contend for a wildcard spot in a wide open NFC. Per FTN they have the second easiest remaining schedule behind the Saints. I’m not going to kid myself with illusions of postseason contention, but they are clearly capable of making some noise.
This weekend sees a matchup between the Eagles and Cowboys that could decide the fate of the NFC East. Who do you think gets the win and do you think that they go on to take the division crown?
Kev: This weekend is huge. The Eagles won’t be panicking after last Sunday’s 49ers loss. It felt inevitable with the way they were doing just enough to win games in recent weeks. The defeat should sharpen the focus and what better way to do that against a hated divisional rival who is playing as well as anyone.
Over the past three weeks Dallas leads the league in points per game, points per play and first downs per game. With Dak Prescott on top form, an A1 receiver in CeeDee Lamb, and the run game keeping opposition teams honest, they’re in the best possible place to face their division-leading rivals.
Opposing coordinators yet to face the Eagles will comb over the 49ers loss to get the special ingredients for success. The middle of the field has been a weakness for some time now but there are few opposing teams with the creativity of Kyle Shanahan at the helm.
The trenches remain their strength and AJ Brown and Devonta Smith are a tough matchup for opposing secondaries. I’ll take the home team to pip this, but I’m not sure I ever trust the Cowboys to see it through and can still see the Eagles winning the division.
William: After getting demolished by the San Francisco 49ers, Philly will enter this game seeking blood. Despite their record, I still feel like Philadelphia has yet to peak this season, and are due a big game very soon. That game could come this weekend, but it won’t be easy going up against a red-hot Dallas Cowboys team.
Dak Prescott has been dialed in and is a betting favorite for the MVP award. I sometimes have a hard time trusting Dallas in big games like this, but I find myself leaning towards them. Philadelphia will have to head to Jerry World and Dallas will look to stand on business as they have been for weeks.
I think Dallas have what it takes to slow this Eagles offense down. AJ Brown will have to contend with Stephon Gilmore who, even late into his career, is still a very physical cornerback. He certainly won’t make things easy. I think Dallas has the ability to wreak havoc against that Philadelphia offensive line as well. Give me Dallas on this one as they just feel like the hotter team, and I am riding the momentum with them.
Jack: I can’t wait for this one. It really is a must-win game for both teams. The Eagles will want to prove their doubters wrong after an ugly loss to the 49ers last week. The Cowboys on the other hand will want to show that they can really hang with the best teams in the NFC after playing the easiest schedule in football through 13 weeks.
I think that the Cowboys will edge out the win. Dak Prescott is finally getting the recognition that he deserves and is playing at an MVP level. Since their bye the Cowboys lead the NFL in EPA per play on offense. They sit second in success rate. When you add that to an already formidable defense you have to be excited for what this team can do.
The Eagles should keep it close, but with Jalen Hurts banged up and a defense that has struggled this year it feels like they may be outmatched. As for the division race, I think the Eagles hold on to top spot, purely based on remaining schedule. Dallas has one of the toughest run-ins in football, whilst the Eagles have two games against the hapless Giants to look forward to.
We can’t talk about Week 14 without mentioning the scintillating matchup between the Chiefs and Bills. What are you going to be looking out for in this one?
Kev: It seems strange to see these two teams lower in the pecking order in the AFC playoff standings. You’d be forgiven for thinking at the start of the season that this game could be pivotal to deciding the No. 1 seed and home field advantage. For the Chiefs it feels more and more each week as if Patrick Mahomes has to be flawless to overcome all other offensive deficiencies. He’s shouldering the blame and being a good teammate but the frustration must be bubbling under the surface with yet more poorly executed route running and drops/
As for the Bills, how can they stop other teams racking up points and keeping up with their offense? Since Week 5 seven of their eight games have been within six points. They’re just not pulling away from teams like they were in the early season games and like you expect a Josh Allen led offense to do. This week I’d like to see them frustrate and stifle the Chiefs. We’ve seen the blueprint in recent weeks of other teams doing this and they’ve more than enough high calibre players on offense to trouble the Chiefs if they’re not at their best defensively.
We know about the Bills defensive injuries but a loss this week could be the final nail in their season. They lose out on so many AFC tiebreakers with crucial head to heads and conference record and it’s gonna get real loud in Arrowhead!
William: The Buffalo Bills need to be playing like their backs are against the walls on Sunday. As weird as it may sound this late into the season, Buffalo is on the brink of missing the playoffs. The offense has been overly reliant on Josh Allen week in and week out, as we saw against the Eagles in Week 12.
They are really going to have their work cut out for them this weekend though. This is one of the better Chiefs defenses that we have seen in years. The Bills offense is built around its passing game, but the Chiefs have allowed just 183 passing yards per game this season, the sixth fewest in the NFL.
I don’t think the Bills will be able to beat the Chiefs on the ground either, meaning they will need to get creative. But for this one, give me the Buffalo Bills overcoming all of the obstacles and just barely escaping Arrowhead alive.
Jack: I want to see whether there is any life left in this Chiefs passing attack. Mahomes is obviously still a superstar, but this team has had real issues moving the ball this season. Over the past six weeks they sit 22nd in dropback EPA, behind the likes of Pittsburgh and Washington.
Since Week 8, Mahomes is 28th in yards per attempt, tied with Tyson Bagent and Gardner Minshew. He is 22nd in passer rating and has just 79 deep passing yards across those five games. The lack of difference makers at receiver and the team’s over-reliance on a 34-year old Travis Kelce is starkly apparent.
They have a good chance to rectify this against the Bills. Buffalo’s defense is banged up and has been struggling this season. They have been noticeably susceptible to the deep ball too, logging the fourth worst DVOA against throws of 20+ yards. If the Chiefs are to have a chance at defending their title, they need to show an offensive spark in games like this.
Are there any particular matchups, be it coaches, players, or teams, that you are excited about in Week 14?
Kev: The chase for the AFC No. 1 seed has some intrigue to it. This week the Ravens come back from their much-needed bye week to host the Rams. The Rams are on a nice three win streak. These may have come against moderate opposition, but success and wins breed confidence.
The Rams themselves are chasing a postseason berth which gives this matchup plenty of meaning. I’m interested to see the McVay ‘mojo’ back and how they’ll try and slow down a speedy Ravens linebacker and secondary unit.
On the Ravens side will they continue to make strides offensively and will Lamar Jackson continue his seemingly quiet MVP run? Both offensive lines are ones to watch in this game. The Rams are settled here following last season’s turmoil and it clearly shows in their recent success. The Ravens on the other hand are starting to leak pressures from both veteran tackles Ronnie Stanley & Morgan Moses. Can Baltimore keep up their momentum and see it through for the final five weeks?
William: Honestly, my favorite matchup this week is seeing how some of these teams fair against the weather. Last weekend we saw the Pittsburgh Steelers get thwarted by the weather. This weekend the East Coast is once again expecting very poor football conditions.
As it stands they are predicting wind gusts of over 20+ mph. This could cause some issues for teams like Houston who have been very pass heavy this season. They may be facing the Zach Wilson-led Jets, but if it comes down to the run game I am concerned. Breece Hall has looked as good as one can when everybody knows you will be running it. The Texans on the other hand have struggled to find rhythm on the ground. It has me wondering if this may be a trap game for Houston.
Meanwhile Baltimore should be better equipped for these conditions. Lamar has struggled with the deep ball, so I expect them to keep things close to the line of scrimmage. If it comes down to beating the Rams with their legs, I am confident they can do that too. It will be fun to see how these coordinators get creative and find ways to get the ball into their playmakers’ hands!
Jack: I want to see how Geno Smith looks against the 49ers defense. Things haven’t been great for Seattle recently. They have now lost three straight games, with one of those coming against San Francisco in Week 12. They did an excellent job of holding Smith in check last time, limiting him to 180 yards and no touchdowns.
The 49ers defense has been one of the best coverage units in football this season, sitting third in passing DVOA. This is obviously a big test for a Seattle team who are firmly in the NFC playoff race. Can Geno turn things around and get the better of the 49ers this time? Or do we see another underwhelming performance? This game will tell us a lot about this Seahawks team.