It’s the offseason, and that means that it is time for rankings. Inspired by the brilliant The Athletic Football Show, we decided to do our inaugural quarterback draft. The rules for this are simple. We took turns to draft current NFL starters on the basis of who we would want to lead a franchise for the next three seasons. To make things a little more interesting, we also factored their contracts into the situation.
Our team of five writers (Lee Wakefield, Kieran Horne, Willie Lane, Tyler Schickert, and Jack Brentnall) sat down for the four-round, 20-pick draft.
1. Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs
Jack: Even with a sizeable contract that will see him earn an average of $45 million over the next three years there really isn’t another option here. Mahomes is in a tier of his own when it comes to playing the quarterback position and he showed as much last season, winning his second MVP and second Super Bowl in just five years as a starter. For my money he is on track to become the best ever.
2. Jalen Hurts, Philadelphia Eagles
Willie: Jalen Hurts received a new contract recently and despite this being on the larger end of the scale he’s my pick. Hurts is a proven leader who practically was the Eagles’ offense in 2022. He is one of the most versatile quarterbacks in the league currently and is coming off a year where they made the Super Bowl. This might be a bit of a risky pick as his success has been extremely sudden, but it’s one I’m willing to take.
3. Joe Burrow, Cincinnati Bengals
Kieran: Even if Joe Burrow is handed the biggest contract in the league, he would still be underpaid. It’s not often a franchise quarterback does what Burrow has done in Cincinnati. He changed the feel of the entire city. Bengals fans were loyal but tired, and Burrow changed that. Record ticket sales, record jersey sales and most importantly, wins. Burrow continues to improve as a quarterback and gets better and better every year. He is arguably in the conversation as a top three signal caller in the league.
4. Lamar Jackson, Baltimore Ravens
Tyler: Lamar Jackson is on a brand new contract and in my opinion the most athletic quarterback in the NFL. He has already rushed for over 1,000 yards twice in his career and if healthy would be a threat to do so every single season. Give him a good offensive line and more pass catchers and he could be a super bowl caliber quarterback.
5. Justin Herbert, Los Angeles Chargers
Lee: So I’m closing out the first round of the draft by selecting the quarterback who I have as the best human quarterback in the league. You cannot, and will not, convince me that Patrick Mahomes is not an extraterrestrial, so he doesn’t count. This might seem like a super-homerish statement, but I don’t think it’s without merit, and either way, allowing Herbert to fall to five is ludicrous from my colleagues.
Aside from the alien and perhaps Josh Allen, #10 is the passer who can make the most outrageous throws in the league. He can do it in the clutch moments and only shines brighter in prime time. I also think Herbert has untapped potential as a runner – Please let him run it, just a little bit, Kellen – and he’s got a supercomputer processor to go with all the physical gifts. Don’t let recency bias cloud your judgment – Herbert was injured for most of last year and had Joe Lambardi as OC! Sheldon High School’s fishing club president is among the elite of the elite.
6. Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills
Jack: If I’d had the No. 2 overall pick in this draft I’d probably have taken Allen there. It’s safe to say that I’m over the moon about getting him at No. 6! I do understand some of the concerns. Like Mahomes, he’s on a chunky contract, with a $43 million AAV. He is also still developing some of the nuances of the position. With that said, Allen has all of the tools you could want. He is one of those rare players who is capable of single-handedly taking over a game. He showed as much last season, when he was often the Bills’ entire offense. It is crazy to think that a player with a whopping 130 touchdowns is still scratching the surface of his potential, but it is the truth.
7. Trevor Lawrence, Jacksonville Jaguars
Willie: Entering 2022 there were plenty of questions regarding Trevor Lawrence. The “generational talent” had shown he’s only human during a less than stellar performance in 2021. But many of these questions were put aside after what Lawrence accomplished this past season. The Clemson quarterback finished the season on a tear. After a 21-17 loss to the Broncos he would go on to throw 15 touchdowns and just two interceptions to conclude the regular season. This, plus an impressive 27-point comeback against the Chargers (and their quarterback who was taken two picks earlier in this draft), wrapped up a bounce back 2022 campaign. I’m confident the sky is the limit for Sunshine.
8. Kirk Cousins, Minnesota Vikings
Kieran: The contract for Cousins is a little high but for all the hate in the media he is a good quarterback. Cousins won’t ever dazzle you but he’ll move the ball and make smart choices to help a team win. I think a strong and experienced veteran player like Cousins is the perfect player to start a franchise with who can help elevate and teach the guys around him.
9. Deshaun Watson, Cleveland Browns
Tyler: Given the level of talent that is still somewhat young, I’m going with Watson who turns 28 in September and who has the proven ability of three Pro Bowl selections. He is certainly a risk after dealing with rust after a lot of time away from the game. However, if he returns to form from his earlier days in Houston, he’s a steal at the ninth quarterback spot for the next three years.
10. Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys
Lee: Each time a top-tier quarterback receives a market resetting contract, fans around the league fawn over the bump in value that the Patrick Mahomes contract receives. It is amazing in a couple of senses, both in the foresight with which Kansas City operated and also that no other team has copied, yet.
The question I want to raise is, that for second tier quarterbacks, is Dak Prescott’s contract, at $40m APY, receiving a similar bump now that the middle class of quarterback is moving towards being paid a similar amount? I believe Dak is the seventh to ninth best quarterback in the league, so great value here. An elite processor, an orchestrator at the line of scrimmage and a passer who can do it all. Super happy to grab him at 10th overall.
11. Aaron Rodgers, New York Jets
Jack: Yes, I know. Rodgers isn’t exactly young and he is certainly not cheap. He’s also been pretty public about the fact that he has flirted with retirement, which isn’t ideal when picking a player to lead your franchise for the next three years. Nevertheless, we shouldn’t forget that this is the guy who won two MVPs in the last three years. Even in a 2022 campaign widely regarded as a down season he led a Packers team lacking any real receiving talent to an 11th ranked offense in terms of DVOA. He did all of that whilst playing with a broken thumb. I have my doubts about whether Rodgers has three seasons left in the tank, but his ceiling means that is a risk worth taking.
12. Jared Goff, Detroit Lions
Willie: Goff is coming off of a polarizing 2022, where at points he seemed like he was on top of the world. He displays solid ball security as well as the ability to place the ball wherever he wants. Goff might only have two years left on his deal, but I’m confident no matter where he lands he can continue the success he’s having in Detroit. He led one of the most prominent offenses with the 2018 LA Rams and will continue to find playing time on almost any roster in the league. Goff is only 28 as well and hasn’t shown any signs of slowing down yet.
13. Tua Tagovailoa, Miami Dolphins
Kieran: Despite the serious concussions sustained during the 2022 NFL season, Tua is still looking to bounce back as a top quarterback and has shown he can play at a high level when healthy. He showed out big time for the Phins early on last season and has all the tools and ability to cement himself as a top quarterback in the league.
14. Jordan Love, Green Bay Packers
Tyler: Jordan Love is entering his first season as a starting quarterback, however he has spent the past three seasons learning under a top five all-time quarterback in Aaron Rodgers. Love has all of the physical traits you want in a quarterback – size, mobility and a cannon arm. He is also younger than Lions 2023 quarterback selection Hendon Hooker and just one year older than Titans quarterback selection Will Levis. So in addition to three years of seeing how the NFL works, Love also has the youth that some players drafted this season possess.
15. Anthony Richardson, Indianapolis Colts
Lee: First off, I have to apologise to Jack as I know I’ve at least partially sniped him here. Jack was huge on Richardson with the former Gator having the honour of being QB1 for him. He was not my QB1, that was Bryce Young, so why have I made this pick?
Firstly, I didn’t think he’d have made it until the end of the draft and I feel Young, and maybe even CJ Stroud could be coming up in the next few picks, so I had to act, and I feel I can probably pick a veteran with the end of the draft. Secondly, given the exercise is for the next three years, I feel I’ve got to grab Richardson purely for the ceiling he possesses. If he hits and is a top eight quarterback in three years, I’ll look like a genius. Which is what we’re all here for, right?
16. Kyler Murray, Arizona Cardinals
Jack: Lee shattered my dreams of taking Richardson at this spot, but it also made my choice slightly easier. This is my chance to get on a podium and call for the Kyler slander to stop. Let’s not forgot that he was a leading candidate for MVP in 2021 before missing time with injuries. He’s also spent the first four years of his NFL career on a terribly constructed roster and operating Kliff Kingsbury’s dire scheme.
Kyler is obviously not perfect – far from it. The work ethic concerns are real, as is the gargantuan contract. But you need a dynamic playmaker at the quarterback position, and Kyler is the only player left available who has flashed that kind of elite play. I’m willing to take a chance.
17. Mac Jones, New England Patriots
Willie: I’m rolling the dice on Mac Jones here and I’m not looking back. The former Alabama quarterback is coming off of a year he would probably like to forget, but at the end of the day we can’t ignore how successful he was as a passer in his rookie campaign working with very little.
Jones has been surrounded with average talent thus far in his NFL career, an argument that can also be made with a guy like Justin Fields from the same class. But Jones is a much more prominent passer and when the confidence is there he looks like a seasoned veteran. Jones has two seasons remaining on his rookie deal, as well as a fifth-year option. I believe we have yet to see his ceiling and fans have forgotten just how good Mac Jones can be.
18. Geno Smith, Seattle Seahawks
Kieran: Despite his age, Geno has shown he can lead a team and consistently make plays in the NFL. His contract is also very reasonable ($25 million AAV) and his wealth of knowledge makes him a better option than a lot of younger players in the league.
19. Bryce Young, Carolina Panthers
Tyler: At this point I’m looking at veterans on contracts I don’t like (Stafford, Wilson), journeymen (Carr, Garoppolo) or a few young guys (Young, Stroud, Levis, Ridder). I’ll take Bryce Young, this year’s #1 overall pick and ride with him for a few years.
20. Derek Carr, New Orleans Saints
Lee: To wrap things up here I’m taking Derek Carr. I believe Carr, at his best, is better than a couple of quarterbacks who have been taken before him. Carr is more of a sure thing than the rookies by virtue of having a respectful NFL career vs. having not taken an NFL snap yet. Despite being 32 and fairly expensive, my choice here is down to Carr or Daniel Jones, and I feel pretty comfortable with my choice.
Derek Carr is a league-average quarterback at worst. He’s a cheeseburger from McDonald’s – There are better burgers available and better fast food places, but a cheeseburger is a cheeseburger, you know what you’re getting.