The New England Patriots aren’t used to losing, so 2022 must have been a tough season to endure. The team finished 8-9, a record that would have been far worse were it not for their defense bailing them out on several occasions. Their decision to hand over the offense to Matt Patricia and Joe Judge was an unmitigated disaster, finishing 24th in offensive DVOA. With the rest of the AFC East on the rise, the Patriots face an uncertain future heading into 2023.
Roster changes
The Patriots didn’t make a tonne of moves in free agency and focused primarily on replacing those players that had departed in free agency. They brought in JuJu Smith-Schuster on a three-year $25.5 million deal to head up their receiving corps and fill in for the now-departed Jakobi Meyers. They also picked up former Dolphins tight end Mike Gesicki to replace Jonnu Smith.
As for their departures, most of these came on the offensive side of the ball. By far the most notable was their receiving yards leader from 2022 in Jakobi Meyers, who left to join Josh McDaniels in Las Vegas. The likes of Nelson Agholor, Isaiah Winn, and Damien Harris also hit free agency and will play in pastures new for 2023. The most notable departure defensively was the retirement of long time safety Devin McCourty.
Coaching situation
Bill Belichick is part of the New England furniture at this point. He is entering his 24th season as the Patriots’ head coach, making him the longest tenured head coach in the NFL and the fourth-longest tenured coach in NFL history.
The rest of the staff remains very stable, with the exception of offensive coordinator. After one very poor season of experimenting with Matt Patricia and Joe Judge as co-offensive coordinators, Belichick has made a switch and hired Bill O’Brien to helm the Patriots’ offense in 2023. O’Brien was the Patriots’ offensive coordinator in 2011 where they went 13-3 before losing to the Giants in the Super Bowl.
2023 NFL Draft
| Pick | Player |
| 1.17 | Christian Gonzalez – CB, Oregon |
| 2.46 | Keion White – EDGE, Georgia Tech |
| 3.76 | Marte Mapu – S, Sacramento State |
| 4.107 | Jake Andrews – IOL, Troy |
| 4.112 | Chad Ryland – K, Maryland |
| 4.117 | Sidy Sow – IOL, Eastern Washington |
| 5.144 | Atonio Mafi – IOL, UCLA |
| 6.187 | Kayshon Boutte – WR, LSU |
| 6.192 | Bryce Baringer – P, Michigan State |
| 6.210 | Demario Douglas – WR, Liberty |
| 6.214 | Ameer Speed – CB, Michigan State |
| 7.245 | Isaiah Bolden – CB, Jacksonville State |
Whilst many expected the Patriots to improve their offense through the draft, they elected instead to bolster an already strong defensive unit that was getting up there in age. Their class was headlined by Oregon cornerback Christian Gonzalez, a player that few expected to be available at No. 17 overall. This was followed up by the picks of Georgia Tech’s defensive end Keion White and Sacramento State’s linebacker Marte Mapu. Both have the potential to contribute as rookies.
Offense
The change in coordinator will mark a shift in the Patriots’ offensive identity, but you can bet that this is an offense that will still want to run the ball. Rhamondre Stevenson was very impressive in 2022, taking over the backfield and finishing with 1,041 yards on his 210 carries. His 3.81 yards after contact per attempt ranked third in the NFL. Behind him there is second-year back Pierre Strong, who had an impressive showing against the Cardinals last season, rushing for 70 yards and a touchdown on just five carries.
Outside of that there are a bunch of question marks. It all starts at the quarterback position as this has the potential to make or break this offense. It is no secret that Belichick failed to commit to Mac Jones last season, switching back and forth between the former first rounder and rookie Bailey Zappe. Jones finished 26th in EPA per play, below the likes of Andy Dalton and Russell Wilson.
This offense also still lacks a bonafide receiving threat, even after bringing in guys like Juju Smith-Schuster and Mike Gesicki. These two moves were to replace the losses of Jakobi Meyers and Jonnu Smith, and whilst both could be upgrades, they don’t really move the needle much. It is tough to see this Patriots passing game scaring many opposing defenses.
Defense
The Patriots don’t do bad defense, and in 2022 Bill Belichick showed that he’s still got it. He pivoted this unit to a much more zone-heavy defense, and it paid off. They were tied for second with 30 turnovers last season and allowed the fourth fewest points per drive. The good news is that much of this group returns in 2023. In reality, it might even have gotten better.
The addition of Christian Gonzalez is huge and gives New England a true lockdown corner on the outside. Gonzalez allowed just 156 yards in man coverage through 12 games at Oregon. They can also call upon Jonathan Jones, who played very well last season, allowing a passer rating of just 77.0 on his 87 targets. The talent in the secondary continues at safety, with the likes of Jalen Mills, Kyle Dugger, Adrian Phillips, and Jabrill Peppers providing possibly the most stacked safety room in the league.
The Patriots can also call upon a very solid defensive front. Matthew Judon has been excellent throughout his time in New England and ranked 10th in pass rush productivity in 2022. They also have Josh Uche and Deatrich Wise, both of whom finished the season with 56 pressures. New England was the only defense in football to boast three players who topped 50 pressures. There is definitely plenty for Patriots fans to get excited about.
Prediction
The Patriots are in a tough division and for perhaps the first time in decades they look the most likely to finish fourth. This team won’t be a pushover though thanks to their exceptional defense. The height of their ceiling will come down to which version of Mac Jones we see under center. If things click then this could very plausibly be a playoff team.
