2022 was a tale of two halves for the Dolphins. Through the first half of the season, Miami’s offense was the talk of the town and they led the NFL in offensive DVOA. Defenses started to adjust down the stretch though, and that, coupled with a raft of injuries at quarterback saw them finish with a 9-8 record. The Dolphins did still make the playoffs for the first time since 2016, but lost to the Bills in the wild card round.
Roster changes
The headline move of the Dolphins’ offseason was of course their decision to trade for star cornerback Jalen Ramsey. The three-time All-Pro is still just 28 years old and cost just a 2023 third round pick to acquire. The Dolphins also picked up former Titans linebacker David Long on a two-year, $10 million deal. Whilst Long has had some issues with staying healthy, he’s a legitimate All-Pro calibre player when he is on the field and this could be a real bargain signing.
The Dolphins did a good job of keeping hold of their best players and only lost a handful of contributors. None of these were particularly notable names, with perhaps the biggest being last season’s starting right tackle Brandon Shell. They also said goodbye to tight end Mike Gesicki and backup offensive lineman Greg Little.
Coaching situation
Mike McDaniel is in his second season as the Dolphins’ head coach after what was a hugely promising debut campaign in 2022. The biggest change comes on defense, where the decision was made to let defensive coordinator Josh Boyer walk. He has been replaced by former Broncos head coach Vic Fangio, whom the Dolphins made the highest paid coordinator in football.
Fangio brought with him a number of new assistant coaches to help with the scheme shift, including Kenny Baker and Steve Donatell. The other noteworthy addition is on offense, where Miami has hired Butch Barry to coach their offensive line. Barry previously worked with McDaniel in San Francisco during the latter’s time as offensive coordinator.
2023 NFL Draft
| Pick | Player |
| 2.51 | Cam Smith – CB, South Carolina |
| 3.84 | Devon Achane – RB, Texas A&M |
| 6.197 | Elijah Higgins – TE, Stanford |
| 7.238 | Ryan Hayes – OT, Michigan |
For the second straight season, the Dolphins were working with little in the way of draft capital. Their four player haul was the smallest of any team, but they picked up some interesting prospects. Smith is an undersized yet feisty corner with legitimate ball skills. The selection of Achane was a particularly exciting one, adding yet more speed to an offense full of track-level athletes.
Offense
After several seasons mired in mediocrity on offense, Mike McDaniel turned this unit around in 2022. The arrival of Tyreek Hill proved to be a catalyst and they jumped from 24th in DVOA in 2021 to seventh in 2022. He led the league with a scarcely believable 3.2 yards per route run. For context, that is the third highest figure since charting began in 2006. This also opened up more opportunities for Jaylen Waddle, who ranked third in that same metric, behind only Hill and Justin Jefferson.
This new offense also worked wonders for Tua Tagovailoa, who had comfortably the best season of his career so far. Whilst there are questions about Tua’s ceiling and he did show signs of regression down the stretch, there is little doubt that he is a very effective operator of McDaniel’s offense when healthy. This is evident by the fact that he led the NFL with an impressive 0.472 points earned per play on RPOs in 2022.
The lingering concern surrounds the Dolphins’ ability to lean on their running game when it really matters. They have assembled a backfield of lightning fast jitterbugs, but their inability to move the pile when they need to showed up time and time again last season. This became even more of a problem when opposing defenses managed to stifle the passing game down the stretch. Miami were incapable of pivoting to their ground game, and they need to remedy that this season if they want to trouble the rest of the AFC.
Defense
With Josh Boyer gone and Vic Fangio now in at defensive coordinator, you can certainly expect a major shift in defensive identity from Miami. The Dolphins played more one-high coverages than anyone in 2022. They also played a tonne of man coverage, as they had under Brian Flores. That couldn’t be further from what we will see from Fangio, who is known for his reliance on split safety coverages and more passive style of defense.
You need a talented defense to run the kind of scheme that Fangio wants to bring, and when you look at the Dolphins’ starting lineup that shouldn’t be an issue. They truly have talent at every level, whether it’s a defensive line that is home to Christian Wilkins, Jaelan Phillips and Bradley Chubb, a linebacker room with the perenially underrated David Long, or the secondary. Even with Jalen Ramsey injured they can call upon the likes of Xavien Howard and Jevon Holland.
If there is a weakness with this unit, it is their lack of depth. Once you get past the first names on the team sheet, their backups and rotational options don’t fill you with a tonne of confidence. This is particularly true at edge, where their backups ranked 67th and 139th in PFF’s pass rush productivity metric in 2022. If everyone stays healthy they should be fine, but when we are talking about a 17-game NFL season that’s a very big if.
Prediction
With a potent offense, bags of talent on defense, and two of the smartest minds in football on either side of the ball, there is no reason that the Dolphins can’t be in contention for the AFC East if their stars stay healthy. That is easier said than done though, and their lack of depth could prevent them from making a serious postseason push in 2023.
