The Bills were once again one of the NFL’s most exciting teams to watch last year. They finished the season 13-3 and won the AFC East for the third consecutive season. That marks the first time they have done so since the early 1990s. They ultimately fell short in the playoffs though, exiting in the divisional round for the second straight season, this time with a loss to the Bengals.
Roster changes
The Bills were pretty active this offseason. In addition to handing Ed Oliver a huge extension, they also signed Conor McGovern to a three-year $22.4 million deal to be their starting guard. They added some extra pass rush potential too, bringing in veteran edge rusher Leonard Floyd on a one-year $7 million deal. Deonte Harty and Damien Harris were two cheap offensive additions but both could make an impact in 2023.
Whilst they made some nice additions, there were a few key departures. Former first round pick Tremaine Edmunds departed in free agency, signing with Chicago on a massive four-year $72 million deal. Rodger Saffold left after one season with the team that saw him start 16 games at left guard. They also saw Devin Singletary leave for Houston after leading the team in carries in each of the last three seasons.
Coaching situation
Sean McDermott is entering his seventh season at the helm for the Bills. With the departure of defensive coordinator Leslie Frazer, McDermott has also made the decision to take on the defensive play calling role himself for the 2023 season. Al Holcomb, who worked with McDermott in Carolina, has joined the team as a senior defensive assistant.
The offensive side of the ball has seen a few new faces too. Adam Henry has joined the team to serve as wide receiver coach, whilst Austin Gund has moved from a quality control role to become the new offensive line coach.
2023 NFL Draft
| Pick | Player |
| 1.25 | Dalton Kincaid – TE, Utah |
| 2.59 | O’Cyrus Torrence – IOL, Florida |
| 3.91 | Dorian Williams – LB, Tulane |
| 5.150 | Justin Shorter – WR, Florida |
| 7.230 | Nick Broeker – IOL, |
| 7.252 | Alex Austin – CB, Oregon State |
The Bills addressed their dire need for a secondary pass catcher with the selection of Dalton Kincaid. Whilst he might be a tight end in name, Kincaid had a case for being the best pure pass catcher in the entire draft and he will give the Bills more versatility in how they deploy their personnel. The next two picks were smart too. Torrence is a mauler that will beef up Buffalo’s run game, whilst Dorian Williams is a long, athletic linebacker who can fill the void left by Tremaine Edmunds.
Offense
The Bills offense continues to be one of the most potent in the NFL. On their day they are almost unstoppable, especially through the air. Last season they ranked second in offensive DVOA, behind only the Super Bowl champion Chiefs. Josh Allen led the NFL with an absurd 7.4% big-time throw rate in 2022. For context, the gap between Allen and second place was as large as the gap from second to 11th.
The acquisition of Dalton Kincaid in the draft should also fill Bills fans with excitement. Not only is he an excellent pass catcher, but he opens up new possibilities. Buffalo was overly reliant on 11 personnel in 2022. Their 3.7% 12 personnel rate ranked 32nd in the NFL and far below the league average of 18.1%. With Kincaid onboard, they can now utilise multiple tight end sets without sacrificing any potency in the passing game. This creates all sorts of matchup issues for opposing defenses in terms of personnel and should help unlock the next stage of this offense.
The one pause for concern is still their running game. Their inability to consistently lean on their ground game, outside of Josh Allen’s scrambling ability, has made them rather one-dimensional when compared to other top offenses. Whilst they will be hoping that their investment at guard will solve the problem, there is a lot of projection involved there. There are also worries about whether James Cook can sustain a heavy workload. Cook has not had a single season in the NFL or in college where he has averaged more than eight carries per game.
Defense
Over recent years the Bills have established a reputation for one of the most reliable defensive units in football. In each of the past two seasons they have finished inside the top five in both DVOA and points per drive. They are comfortable against the pass and stopping the run, which is even more impressive when you consider that they played two-high shells on 47.2% of dropbacks last season, the second highest rate in the NFL.
There’s reason for optimism looking ahead to 2023 too, and that primarily centres on their pass rush. In particular, it will be having a healthy Von Miller. He acted as a force multiplier for this defense when he was on the field. Before his injury in Week 12, the Bills ranked eighth in pressures. From Week 13, they dropped to 24th. They will also have high expectations for third year edge Gregory Rousseau, whose 22% win rate on true pass sets ranked 13th at the position.
If there is a reason for concern outside of the departure of defensive coordinator Leslie Frazier, it is the cornerback room. Tre’Davious White is definitely a dependable starter on the boundary, but last year’s first round pick Kaiir Elam struggled as a rookie. He allowed a passer rating of 143.9 in man coverage, the sixth highest figure amongst all NFL cornerbacks. Meanwhile, slot cornerback Taron Johnson allowed seven touchdowns, the second most in the NFL last season. Both will need to improve for this defense to hit its ceiling.
Prediction
When you have Josh Allen as your quarterback it is difficult to be anything other than a very good team. The Bills should win another AFC East title and will be a force to be reckoned with in the playoffs. Their ability to take the next step will be entirely dependent on their ability to employ multiplicity on offense and show that they can win in different ways.
