2022 was a major disappointment for the Browns. This was a team with legitimate playoff ambitions after the acquisition of Deshaun Watson, but if anything the offense looked worse with him under center than they did starting Jacoby Brissett. With issues on defense too, they slumped to 7-10 and last place in the AFC North. 2023 feels like it could be a make or break year for this team as a result.
Roster changes
If there was any doubt that the Browns want to win right now that was put to bed by their activity in free agency. They brought in defensive tackle Dalvin Tomlinson on a four-year $57 million deal to fix their run defense, whilst also signing former Chiefs safety Juan Thornhill to a three-year $21 million deal. They added some juice at edge rusher too, bringing in Ogbonnia Okoronkwo and ZaDarius Smith to draw some attention away from Myles Garrett.
As for their departures, none of these will lead to any lost sleep in Cleveland. The team said goodbye to Jadeveon Clowney and Kareem Hunt, both of whom hit free agency. They also cut safety John Johnson after a couple of underwhelming seasons with the team.
Coaching situation
Kevin Stefanski is entering his fourth season as the Browns’ head coach after going 26-24 over his first three seasons. There is plenty of continuity on the offensive coaching staff, with Alex Van Pelt also returning for his fourth season as offensive coordinator. The one noteworthy addition is Bill Musgrave, who joins as senior offensive assistant after being the offensive coordinator at Cal.
On defense, Joe Woods was given his marching orders after the defense failed to live up to expectation in 2022. In his place comes long-time NFL defensive coordinator and former head coach, Jim Schwartz. There was also the promotion of former assistant coaches Ben Bloom and Brandon Lynch to defensive line and cornerbacks coach respectively.
2023 NFL Draft
| Pick | Player |
| 3.74 | Cedric Tillman – WR, Tennessee |
| 3.98 | Siaki Ika – IDL, Baylor |
| 4.111 | Dawand Jones – OT, Ohio State |
| 4.126 | Isaiah McGuire – EDGE, Missouri |
| 5.140 | Dorian Thompson-Robinson – QB, UCLA |
| 5.142 | Cameron Mitchell – CB, Northwestern |
| 6.190 | Luke Wypler – IOL, Ohio State |
The Deshaun Watson trade left the Browns without any picks in the first two rounds for the second consecutive year. Despite working with limited assets, it is fair to say that this class rivals what some teams managed with much more draft capital. Tillman gives them a prototypical X receiver who would have gone far earlier had injuries not impacted his 2022 season. In Ika they get the run-stuffing nose tackle that they so desperately lacked last season, and a potential tackle of the future in Dawand Jones.
Offense
On paper, there aren’t many offenses that look as exciting as the Browns. As always, the reasons for optimism begin with their offensive line. The talent is self evident at every spot and is a big reason why their rushing attack has been so potent in recent years. The other obvious factor in that is Nick Chubb, who continues to be the best pure runner in football. Chubb’s 0.66 rush yards over expected (RYOE) leads the NFL since he was drafted in 2018.
They also have an incredibly deep receiving corps, which is a huge change from this time last year. Amari Cooper was excellent in 2022 and they now have Elijah Moore and Cedric Tillman, both players who could have an immediate impact. They also have another dependable duo in Donovan Peoples-Jones and David Njoku, who combined for 119 catches for 1,467 yards in 2022.
The lingering question is whether Deshaun Watson can recapture the form that he showed at Houston. It is not a stretch to say that when he was on the field in 2022, he looked like one of the worst quarterbacks in football. This offense had looked far better with Jacoby Brissett at the helm and dropped from sixth to 24th in EPA per play with Watson under center. Was this simply an adjustment period after not stepping on a football field in almost two years? The Browns will be hoping so, not least because they made him the highest paid player in NFL history.
Defense
After a thoroughly underwhelming season for the Browns defense in 2022 it was clear that a change needed to be made. Jim Schwartz comes in for Joe Woods and he will oversee a switch to his famous even front scheme, a marked change from what we saw under Woods. Schwartz’s use of wide-nine alignments ensures that his best pass rushers regularly get one-on-ones. This explains why over his final three seasons in Philadelphia his team ranked an average of 26th in blitz rate but eighth in pressure rate.
That bodes well for this Browns defensive line, which looks like one of the very best the NFL has to offer. Everyone knows about Myles Garrett, who is arguably the best edge defender in football and who led the league in pass rush win rate last season. What’s exciting for 2023 is the talent around him. Dalvin Tomlinson is a force to be reckoned with on the interior and in ZaDarius Smith and Ogbonnia Okoronkwo the Browns have two other excellent edge rushers. That should help Garrett to flourish even more.
The talent doesn’t stop there and it is genuinely tough to find a weak link in this defense. They have an outstanding young trio of corners in Denzel Ward, Greg Newsome, and Martin Emerson. Their safety duo of Juan Thornhill and Grant Delpit is also excellent, with both allowing a sub-85 passer rating last season. Linebacker is probably their weakest spot, but even there they have the electric Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah. If there is a question it is how quickly everyone can adapt to Jim Schwartz’ scheme. If it’s quickly, the rest of the NFL should watch out.
Prediction
The range of outcomes for the Browns feels huge. Whilst their defense should rank amongst the best in the NFL, their offense is a total unknown quantity thanks to their quarterback. If Watson can get anywhere close to recapturing the form that saw him go to three Pro Bowls in Houston then they are legitimate contenders in the AFC. If he’s anything like he was in 2022, they will struggle to hold their own in a strong division and conference.
