One of the big surprises of the 2023 season so far has been the success of the Cleveland Browns’ defense. Many (myself included) had high hopes for their potential under Jim Schwartz, but even their staunchest supporters were unlikely to have predicted this kind of start.
The relentless nature of this defense, summed up in their dominant win against a seemingly unstoppable 49ers offense last weekend, has led to many asking the question – just how good are the 2023 Browns? And how does this unit compare to some other historically great units?
Cleveland’s performance so far
A quick look at the Browns’ numbers, both in terms of box score numbers and advanced metrics, are revealing.
Through five games they have allowed just 1,002 yards. That is the fewest any team has allowed since the 1971 Colts, who allowed 836 yards. The Browns have also allowed the lowest yards per drive in the NFL with 16.93. The gap between them and the second placed Saints is as wide as the gap between the Saints and the 20th placed Panthers.
Cleveland is also forcing three-and-outs on an astonishing 42% of drives. For context, no other team is higher than 29%. The gap between the Browns and second placed 49ers is as wide as the gap between 49ers and 29th placed Commanders.
To top all of this off, Cleveland also leads the NFL in both EPA per play and success rate on defense. What makes this even more impressive is their consistency week-to-week, as evidenced by the table below showing the best single game performances in terms of success rate this season.
| Team | Game | Success rate allowed |
| Browns | Week 1 vs Bengals | 22.2% |
| Saints | Week 5 vs Patriots | 22.2% |
| Browns | Week 3 vs Titans | 27.7% |
| Browns | Week 2 vs Steelers | 28% |
| Patriots | Week 3 vs Jets | 29% |
How does this compare to other great starts?
All of that shows that the Browns are clearly a cut above the rest of the NFL in 2023. Their start to the season has been phenomenal. But how does it compare to some other recent great starts?
One of the best ways to measure defensive performance is DVOA. It helps remove some of the noise that you get by looking at box scores and it gives a much more comprehensive understanding of how defenses are performing relative to the rest of the league.
The table below shows where the Browns rank compared to other defenses since 2010 through Week 6.
| Team | Season | DVOA |
| Patriots | 2019 | -47.2% |
| 49ers | 2019 | -39.9% |
| Lions | 2014 | -31.7% |
| Bears | 2012 | -30.8% |
| Jets | 2015 | -30.6% |
| Bills | 2021 | -30.2% |
| Vikings | 2016 | -29.7% |
| Broncos | 2015 | -29.4% |
| Browns | 2023 | -29.3% |
| Ravens | 2011 | -28.8% |
It goes without saying that having the ninth best start on defense over the last 13 seasons is obviously hugely impressive. It is also worth noting that the gap between the Browns and the fourth placed 2012 Bears defense is just 1.5%.
It’s also incredibly encouraging when you look at what those teams went on to do over the rest of their respective seasons. Six of the nine other teams in that top ten made the playoffs. Two of them went on to win their conference championship games, and one (the 2015 Denver Broncos) won the Super Bowl.
The combined record of these other nine teams in these seasons was 99-46. All but one of the teams (the 2016 Vikings) finished with at least 10 wins.
Importantly, most of these teams also did a great job of sustaining their defensive form throughout the season. When looking at end of season DVOA numbers in comparison to historic seasons dating back to 1983, six of the nine teams rank in the 96th percentile or above 1983.
How do the Browns compare to the all-time greats?
That provides a good indication of how the Browns look compared to other historic starts through Week 6. But what if they keep up their current level of performance? Where would this rank amongst the pantheon of all-time great defenses?
Comparing across eras is always challenging, not least because the amount of statistical data available now far exceeds what we had decades ago. Nevertheless, if you look at a range of key metrics you can get a good feel of how this units stacks up against some other great defenses. The data for most of these metrics stretch back to at least 1993 – for some, it goes back to 1983.
When you look at the list of teams that tend to rank highly in these categories, it is littered with noteworthy defenses. The Buddy Ryan Bears teams of the 1980s; the Ravens teams at the turn of the millenium; the 2000 AFC Championship winning Titans; and the 1991 Eagles defense led by Reggie White and Jerome Brown.
The table below shows how the 2023 Browns defense at its current level of performance compares to other defenses throughout recent decades.
| Metric | 2023 Browns historical rank |
| Defensive DVOA * | 4th |
| Pass defense DVOA * | 6th |
| Run defense DVOA * | 51st |
| Yards per drive † | 1st |
| Points per drive † | 11th |
| Three and out rate † | 1st |
| Drive success rate † | 1st |
† 1993-2023
Those numbers speak volumes, especially when you consider that many of the other defenses the Browns rank amongst were playing in a much less offense-friendly era.
It’s admittedly still early in the season and there is plenty of football still left to play. That said, if the Browns keep up anything close to their current level of form they deserve to be considered as one of the greatest single season defenses the NFL has seen.
