After several forgettable seasons the Jaguars finally turned a corner in 2022. The arrival of Doug Pederson was a catalyst for an offensive transformation and Trevor Lawrence firmly established himself as one of the most exciting young quarterbacks in football. They finished 9-8, winning the AFC South for the second time in their history and making it to the divisional round.
Roster changes
Most of the Jaguars’ most notable offseason roster work actually came in re-signing existing players. They gave extensions to both Davon Hamilton and Roy Robertson-Harris whilst also tying Evan Engram down to a three-year $41.25 million deal. The most expensive outside free agent that they brought in was former Broncos kicker Brandon McManus who will earn just $2 million APY.
Departures were, perhaps unsurprisingly, a little more noteworthy. The biggest was right tackle Jawaan Taylor who earned a big money deal with the Chiefs. There were no other big name starters, although the loss of Arden Key, Shaquill Griffin, and Marvin Jones will be felt. Key finished second on the team with 44 pressures last season behind Josh Allen.
Coaching situation
2023 will mark the second season of the Doug Pederson era in Jacksonville and after a very promising debut season it is no surprise to see continuity from a coaching perspective. Press Taylor and Mike Caldwell will both return to their positions as offensive and defensive coordinator respectively. The only real change is the arrival of Chad Hall as their new wide receiver coach. Hall joins from Buffalo to replace Chris Jackson, who departed to become the passing game coordinator for the Texas Longhorns.
2023 NFL Draft
| Pick | Player |
| 1.27 | Anton Harrison – OT, Oklahoma |
| 2.61 | Brenton Strange – TE, Penn State |
| 3.88 | Tank Bigsby – RB, Auburn |
| 4.121 | Ventrell Miller – LB, Florida |
| 4.130 | Tyler Lacy – EDGE, Oklahoma |
| 5.136 | Yasir Abdullah – EDGE, Louisville |
| 5.160 | Antonio Johnson – S, Texas A&M |
| 6.185 | Parker Washington – WR, Penn State |
| 6.202 | Christian Braswell – CB, Rutger |
| 6.208 | Erick Hallett II – S, Pittsburgh |
| 7.226 | Cooper Hodges – OT, Appalachian State |
| 7.227 | Raymond Vohasek – IDL, North Carolina |
| 7.240 | Derek Parish – FB, Houston |
Trent Baalke’s tendency to draft differently continued this year with a class that whilst talented, was often a little surprising. The selection of Anton Harrison in the first round felt a little rich based on his college tape, but there is certainly some upside there. The surprises continued, but it feels like their offense is getting a handful of players who can contribute from the outset in Brenton Strange, Tank Bigsby, and Parker Washington.
Offense
The question facing the Jaguars last season was whether they had really landed their franchise star in Trevor Lawrence. The answer one year later is an emphatic “yes”. He flourished in Doug Pederson’s offense and finished the season ninth in EPA per dropback. He held his own against the NFL’s best defenses and the 27-point comeback he helmed against the Chargers in the playoffs are a promising sign of what is to come.
The Jaguars have also managed to rapidly overhaul the receiving corps that Pederson inherited and their trio of Calvin Ridley, Christian Kirk, and Evan Engram is amongst the league’s most exciting. Kirk and Engram combined for 1,872 yards last season and whilst Ridley hasn’t played in almost two years, he led the Falcons with 1,374 yards and earned an All-Pro nod in his last full season. Add in a vibrant young backfield duo in Travis Etienne and Tank Bigsby and it’s easy to get very excited about the ceiling of this unit.
If there is one thing that could hold them back it is the offensive line. They have a new starter at left tackle, with 2021 second round pick stepping in for the suspended Cam Robinson. They are also set to start rookie Anton Harrison at right tackle, replacing the departed Jawaan Taylor. When you factor in that their interior unit often looked shaky in pass protection last season this is a very real worry.
Defense
There was plenty of excitement around what the Jaguars’ defense could look like under Mike Caldwell in 2022, but the results were disappointing to say the least. Their pair of rookie first round picks Travon Walker and Devin Lloyd did not live up to expectation and the unit as a whole ranked way down at 26th in DVOA and in drive success rate.
What is even more concerning is that in spite of this poor performance, Jacksonville barely made any additions to this group in the offseason. Their only free agency moves were two backup interior defensive linemen on veteran minimum deals. None of their defensive draft picks came inside the top three rounds and as things stand they are not projected to have any new starters.
If you are wanting to take a more optimistic approach, there are certainly reasons for hope. Last year was the first in a new system and things could improve now that the adjustment period has worn off. There is also the fact that this is still a young unit – they had the seventh lowest snap-weighted age in 2022. If a number of those players can take a leap then maybe this can be an above average unit.
Prediction
The Jaguars’ offense has understandably been the talk of the town this offseason. They have a tremendous talent at quarterback and have surrounded him with a bevy of weapons. Their success this season will however hinge on whether a disappointing defensive unit can take a leap in 2023. With no additions of note, that feels like a big ask.
