As fans, we often expect rookies to hit the ground running in the NFL. In reality, it often takes a season or two for them to hit their stride. In 2018 we saw Patrick Mahomes named as the MVP in his second year, with Lamar Jackson doing the same in 2019. Whilst we may not get an MVP performance from any of the names on this list, they all look set for a breakout season and a big jump in production. Here is a name to watch at every position in 2021.
Quarterback – Tua Tagovailoa, Miami Dolphins
Tua certainly blew hot and cold during his rookie season, but he wasn’t helped by Miami’s offense. Chan Gailey ran an outdated scheme that was not suited to his skillset, whilst his receivers struggled with drops all year. 8.8 per cent of Tua’s catchable passes were dropped last season, the fifth highest rate in the NFL. That shouldn’t be a problem in 2021 and the Dolphins have made a concerted effort to build around their young quarterback. In addition to two new offensive coordinators, they have added Will Fuller and Jaylen Waddle, two receivers who fit well with Tua’s skillset. Everything is in place for him to improve and silence his doubters in 2021.
Running Back – Zack Moss, Buffalo Bills
Those calling for the Bills to take a running back in the 2021 Draft had seemingly forgotten that they have Zack Moss on their roster. Buffalo’s backfield committee limited his opportunities in 2020, but he began to take on a leading role down the stretch and looked very promising. He averaged 4.3 yards per carry and forced 27 missed tackles on his 130 touches. An impressive 67.7 per cent of his yardage came after contact too. For context, this is higher than the likes of Dalvin Cook and Aaron Jones. With an improved offensive line to run behind, Moss should put up some solid numbers in 2021.
Wide Receiver – Darnell Mooney, Chicago Bears
Mooney had an encouraging rookie season in Chicago. He quickly became their WR2 behind Allen Robinson and finished the year with 631 yards on his 61 catches. Mooney’s 4.38 speed makes him a real deep threat, but neither Nick Foles nor Mitchell Trubisky were able to maximise his talent. He had 23 deep targets as a rookie, but only four of them were catchable. That should change with Justin Fields under center. Fields’ 59.4 per cent adjusted completion percentage on deep passes was the seventh highest in college football last season. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Mooney break the 1,000 yard barrier in 2021.
Tight End – Adam Trautman, New Orleans Saints
I really liked Trautman coming out of Dayton last year and he showed promise as a rookie. Opportunities were limited behind Jared Cook, but he still managed 15 catches for 171 yards and a touchdown. Trautman has great hands and was the only rookie tight end who didn’t register a single drop on double digit targets. He was also the highest graded run blocking tight end in the NFL, per PFF. With Cook now in Los Angeles, Trautman is the presumptive TE1 for the Saints entering 2021. The quarterback situation may not be ideal, but Trautman should take a big leap in production regardless.
Offensive Tackle – Andrew Thomas, New York Giants
Thomas was the first tackle off the board in last year’s draft but he didn’t live up to the lofty expectations. His 57 pressures allowed were the second most in the NFL and he allowed a league-high 10 sacks. Giants fans will be expecting more quality in 2021 and Thomas’ form down the stretch hinted it may be on the way. After allowing an astonishing 44 pressures through his first 10 starts, Thomas allowed just 13 pressures through his last six games. With a full offseason to work on his technique, we might start to see the return of the tackle who was so dominant in college football.
Interior Offensive Line – Kevin Dotson, Pittsburgh Steelers
Dotson isn’t a name that will be familiar to most fans, but he is certainly one to watch as we head into 2021. The Steelers’ offensive line has taken a significant step back this offseason and their lone shining light is Dotson. Despite suffering a number of injuries and contracting COVID-19, he managed to impress in limited outings last season. Dotson played 358 snaps across eight games for the Steelers as a rookie. In that time he allowed a single pressure on his 219 pass blocking snaps. His 87.2 PFF pass blocking grade ranked second amongst all interior offensive linemen last season.
Interior Defensive Line – Javon Kinlaw, San Francisco 49ers
The 49ers took Kinlaw at No. 12 overall in last year’s draft, but he didn’t have much of an impact as a rookie. This didn’t come as a huge surprise. He relied almost entirely on his physical dominance to produce in college and a COVID-hit training camp and preseason limited opportunities for development. He still managed to put up some solid numbers though and finished the year with 19 pressures on his 341 pass rushing snaps. With Nick Bosa returning from injury, the 49ers’ defensive line should be much better in 2021. Expect Kinlaw to be a direct beneficiary of the added attention that Bosa will draw.
Edge – Alex Highsmith, Pittsburgh Steelers
Highsmith was definitely a name that went under the radar last season. He filled in for an injured Bud Dupree down the stretch and his numbers were excellent. In his five games as a starter from Week 13, Highsmith racked up 17 pressures on just 158 pass rushing snaps. This ranked 10th across the NFL over that period. He finished the year with a 16.5 per cent pass rush win rate, easily the best amongst rookies and almost four percentage points higher than Chase Young. With Dupree now in Tennessee, Highsmith looks to be the starter opposite T.J. Watt this season and should get plenty more opportunity to impress.
Linebacker – Willie Gay, Kansas City Chiefs
Gay was one of my favourite linebackers in the 2020 class and I had a first round grade on him at the time. He slipped to the second round but showed his talent in limited outings for the Chiefs last season. His biggest strength is his coverage ability. Gay allowed just 111 yards on his 18 targets, whilst also chipping in with three pass breakups, the most of any rookie linebacker. This is all the more impressive when considering it came on just 92 coverage snaps. With another offseason under his belt to learn Steve Spagnuolo’s complex defense and a clear path to the field, he is a name to watch closely in 2021.
Cornerback – Bryce Hall, New York Jets
The Jets’ defense was a disaster under Gregg Williams and Hall had a tough start to his NFL career. New head coach Robert Saleh will be installing a new scheme and Hall looks set to be a direct beneficiary. Saleh likes to run a press-heavy Cover 3 scheme and Hall is the perfect player for that system. He offers great length and physicality to disrupt receivers off the line of scrimmage and pairs this with excellent ball skills. Hall showed some promise last season and now looks set to be a full-time starter. It will be interesting to see how he fares in 2021.
Safety – Xavier McKinney, New York Giants
McKinney was the first safety off the board last year, but a foot fracture limited him in his rookie season. He didn’t play until Week 12 and only started his first game in Week 14. There was a lot to like though, and over the next four games McKinney hinted at bigger things to come. He logged just one missed tackle on 24 attempts and was fantastic in coverage. He gave up just 47 yards on 10 targets and allowed a passer rating of 40.4. The Giants’ defense is looking very promising in 2021 and McKinney could well be a vital part of their secondary.
Tua is very underestimated nationally. Last year, his o-line was bad and receivers were backups. Plus, he was coming off a major injury with no regular offseason. Waddle, Will Fuller, and a decent O-line? Tua should be very, very good.