After a 2021 quarterback class led by a generational talent in Trevor Lawrence, 2022 was always going to feel like a bit of a downgrade. That said, there is still plenty of talent in this year’s crop and a number of names who already look set to be first rounders next April. Here are my top five draft-eligible quarterbacks ahead of the 2021 college football season.
1. Spencer Rattler – Oklahoma (6-1, 205, rs-Sophomore)
After redshirting in his freshman season, Rattler took up the reins for Oklahoma in 2020. After a rocky start that saw him briefly benched against Texas in Week 6, he went from strength to strength. Rattler’s final numbers compared favourably to the very best in college football, throwing for 3,031 yards, with 28 touchdowns and just seven picks. Rattler has the ideal combination of arm talent and athletic ability and thrives when playing outside of structure. All of the tools are there to be the No. 1 overall pick and the numbers prove it. His 9.4 per cent big-time throw rate ranked third amongst Power Five quarterbacks in 2020 and he ranked 11th with his 78.3 per cent adjusted completion rate. He needs to improve on his pocket presence and footwork, but right now he looks like the clear QB1 in 2022.
2. Sam Howell – North Carolina (6-1, 220, Junior)
After an impressive freshman season in 2019, Howell took the next step as a sophomore. He finished the year with 3,555 passing yards, 30 touchdowns and seven interceptions on his way to Second Team All-ACC honours. It is easy to see why so many scouts are high on Howell. He displays fantastic arm strength and pairs it with pinpoint accuracy at every level of the field. Howell takes great care of the football too, with just a 2.2 per cent turnover-worthy play rate in 2020. His pocket presence is superb and he does a great job of standing in and making plays under pressure. There will be concerns about whether Howell’s success in UNC’s simplistic RPO offense can translate to the NFL level, but he has the traits to succeed.
3. Malik Willis – Liberty (6-1, 215, rs-Senior)
It took Willis four years to get a starting job in college football. It is safe to say that it was worth the wait. Willis offers some of the rarest physical traits you will see at the quarterback position. He has arguably the strongest arm in class, with a quick and compact release. He also looks like the most dynamic running threat at the position since Lamar Jackson. Willis accounted for 34 all-purpose touchdowns in 2020 and was the only quarterback in college football to hit 1,000 rushing yards. He surpassed 100 rushing yards in six games, averaging 8.1 yards per carry. He is elusive in the open field too, and led college football with 0.55 forced missed tackles per carry. If he can improve on his footwork and ball placement he may challenge for a top ten pick next April.
4. Carson Strong – Nevada (6-4, 215, rs-Junior)
After an underwhelming freshman season that saw him throw 11 touchdowns and seven picks, Strong exploded onto the scene last year. He finished 2020 with 27 touchdowns and just four interceptions on his way to being voted Mountain West OPOY. Strong is a prototypical pocket passer, with excellent arm strength and accuracy. His 80.2 per cent adjusted completion rate ranks third amongst returning quarterbacks. He showed a noticeable improvement in his decision making last year too, with a 1.7 per cent turnover-worthy play rate that ranked second in the FBS. Strong is a limited athlete and needs to improve his pocket presence, but in the right scheme he can be a good starter at the NFL level.
5. Kedon Slovis – USC (6-3, 215, Junior)
Slovis was thrown in at the deep end in his freshman year. A former three-star recruit, he ended up taking over from an injured JT Daniels in Week 1. He looked great out of the gate and never gave the job back. Where Slovis wins is with his accuracy. His mechanics and ball placement are excellent and his 79.7 per cent adjusted completion rate ranks fourth amongst returning quarterbacks. He isn’t the most athletic prospect, but he is excellent at navigating pressure in the pocket and keeping plays alive. The big question mark at this point will be his decision making. He took a noticeable step back in this department last season and it remains to be seen whether this was a one-off or a sign of a more worrying trend.
