Every year dynasty football players will find themselves in love with certain prospects. The hype surrounding these rookies has a habit of spiralling out of control, often skewing their value massively during the offseason. It gets to a point where production is seemingly overlooked in favour of projection. Here are five rookies that fit that bill this offseason.
Drake London – WR, Atlanta Falcons
ADP: 46
Positional rank: WR13
London is easily the biggest example of rookies getting overhyped this offseason. I was a big fan of him coming out of USC, but as things stand I wouldn’t touch him in a dynasty startup. Whilst I don’t think anyone will disagree that he should produce solid numbers as a rookie, his current ADP is massively inflated. London is currently going as the 13th wide receiver off the board. This is putting him ahead of proven fantasy producers like Diontae Johnson and Michael Pittman.
Expecting this level of production from a rookie wide receiver is just bad process. Since 2017, only three rookies have finished as top 15 receivers. Only two have logged WR1 finishes (Justin Jefferson and Ja’Marr Chase). London is a good player, but he certainly isn’t in the same bucket as those players. He is also working with noticeably less talent at quarterback, with Marcus Mariota or Desmond Ridder as the options under center. Add in the fact that he will be competing with Kyle Pitts for targets and it is difficult to get on board with his current ADP.
Kenneth Walker III – RB, Seattle Seahawks
ADP: 53
Positional rank: RB16
Walker’s ADP of 53 puts him as the second highest drafted rookie running back in dynasty football this season, behind only Breece Hall at 24. There are some important differences between the two though – for starters, Hall is stepping into a team where he will be the clear RB1 from the outset. Walker on the other hand enters a crowded backfield and a team that recently paid Rashaad Penny good money to remain with the team into 2022.
The other, and perhaps more important difference for fantasy football is Walker’s lacklustre receiving ability. Walker had just 18 receptions for 129 yards and a touchdown in his entire collegiate career. He could certainly develop this area of his game, but it is almost impossible to get close to an RB1 finish without any real pass catching prowess. When you then account for the fact he is going ahead of legitimate RB1 candidates like Aaron Jones and Leonard Fournette it becomes more difficult to justify.
James Cook – RB, Buffalo Bills
ADP: 88
Positional rank: RB26
There might not be a rookie that is more divisive in fantasy circles than James Cook. For some he has landed in an average backfield in one of the league’s most explosive offenses. They will point to the fact that the Bills’ backs saw 92 targets in the passing game last season and that Cook is the prime candidate to hoover the majority of those up this year. They will also point to his draft capital, with the Bills taking him at the back end of the second round.
All of this sounds intriguing, but it is only half of the picture. For starters, the Bills have shown no interest in running anything other than a committee backfield. They haven’t had a back log more than 200 carries since LeSean McCoy managed it in Sean McDermott’s first season with the team in 2017. There’s also the fact that Josh Allen will vulture plenty of red zone touches (he had 29.1% of the team’s red zone carries in 2021). To top it all off there is Cook’s size. For all of his dynamism as a receiver, he is a limited runner by virtue of weighing just 190 lbs. With all of this uncertainty there are plenty of names below him who should significantly exceed his production.
Dameon Pierce – RB, Houston Texans
ADP: 112
Positional rank: RB32
I should start this off by saying that I was a far bigger fan than most of Pierce as a draft prospect. In my pre-draft rankings I had him as the third best back in the class, behind only Breece Hall and Kenneth Walker. He also benefitted from a solid landing spot from a fantasy perspective, with a clear path to being the lead back in that offense. I hoovered him up in every rookie draft that I could and snagged him in the later rounds of a few startup drafts too.
The preseason has seen his stock skyrocket though, to a point where it is getting out of control. Pierce is now being drafted in the 11th and 12th rounds of dynasty startups. That puts him ahead of the likes of Chase Edmonds, a proven NFL runner who will be the clear lead back in Miami this season. Pierce is also being traded for future first round picks and routinely going in the top five picks in rookie startups. As much as I like the player and see a path to NFL success, this feels a little too rich at this point.
Christian Watson – WR, Green Bay Packers
ADP: 98
Positional rank: WR38
As soon as the Packers traded up for Watson in the draft, the hype train started moving. To an extent this level of optimism is understandable. Watson enters a receiver room without Davante Adams, whose 166 targets from last season have to go somewhere. He’s also hardly sitting amongst a talented crop of receiving talent. As things stand, he will be competing with Allen Lazard and Sammy Watkins for starting reps.
In reality it is time to temper these expectations. Watson might be in a good situation, but he is still a very raw player with a lot of work to do to become a team’s leading receiver. Don’t forget that this is a player who averaged 26 catches for 535 yards in his four seasons in college. There’s also the fact that Rodgers is well known for being choosy with his receivers and making them earn their targets. He has already spoken about how he prioritises production over projection at the position. With his combination of size and speed Watson is likely to replace Marquez Valdes-Scantling as the team’s designated deep threat, and that isn’t a role that guarantees consistent production.
