Whether you are taking part in a start-up draft or revamping your roster for next season, there is plenty of work to do in dynasty fantasy football. Finding value and getting ahead of the market is the key to success in this format, and this list should help you do just that. These four running backs all have an ADP below 120, yet each have the potential to be impact starters for your team in 2022 and beyond. Here are four running backs to buy low ahead of the 2022 season.
Scoring is PPR and ADP data is sourced from Sleeper unless stated otherwise.
Rhamondre Stevenson – New England Patriots
ADP: 124
2021 RB rank: #47
Stevenson’s ADP of 124 only just puts him just outside the first ten rounds in a start-up 12 team league, but I’d consider him slightly earlier. New England’s backfield has always been difficult to judge from a fantasy perspective, but there is real reason to get behind Stevenson this offseason. For starters, there is his impressive production when called upon as a rookie. There’s also the fact that Damien Harris will hit free agency next summer, leaving Stevenson as the presumptive starter entering 2023.
This would obviously present plenty of opportunity as Harris accounted for 49% of New England’s running back carries and played 42% of the snaps. Most importantly it would vacate a tonne of red zone usage and touchdown opportunities, with Harris accounting for 15 of the team’s 24 rushing touchdowns last season. Stevenson showed promise as a rookie, and it wouldn’t be surprising to see him begin his takeover of this backfield during his second season.
Chase Edmonds – Miami Dolphins
ADP: 139.3
2021 RB rank: #34
There is definitely some commonality between the Patriots’ backfield and the Dolphins’. Mike McDaniel comes from a scheme that causes fantasy headaches thanks to employing multiple backs. That said, this argument has become a little overblown at this point. In McDaniel’s one season as offensive coordinator with the 49ers, the team pivoted to employing a true RB1 in the form of Elijah Mitchell, who accounted for 59% of the team’s running back carries.
He will no doubt use a variety of backs in Miami, but there should still be a default RB1 and there’s every reason to believe that is Chase Edmonds. For starters he is a natural fit in McDaniel’s wide zone scheme. There’s also the fact that his competition is a 30 year old Raheem Mostert coming off a knee injury and Sony Michel, who is on his third team in three years. Edmonds no doubt carries some risk, but that means you can get him cheap. The potential payoff for the investment makes the move worthwhile.
Khalil Herbert – Chicago Bears
ADP: 172.7
2021 RB rank: #62
Herbert was one of my favourite running back prospects in last year’s class and he delivered the goods when he was on the field as a rookie. In a four-game stretch as the team’s starter from Weeks 5-8, Herbert averaged 4.4 yards per carry and 13.5 fantasy points per game. This production and any optimism surrounding Herbert’s fantasy value was immediately cut short after David Montgomery made his return. Matt Nagy stuck with Montgomery, despite Herbert outproducing him on a per carry basis. Herbert ended up with just 22 carries across the final nine games.
This might lead to a little hesitation when considering him for 2022 and beyond, but there are plenty of reasons to invest in him. Firstly, there is a new coaching staff in Chicago. The Bears’ new offensive coordinator Luke Getsy comes over from a Packers team that had a tonne of success with the one-two punch of Aaron Jones and A.J. Dillon, both of whom finished as top 25 fantasy running backs last season. There is a very real chance he takes a similar approach with Montgomery and Herbert in 2022. With Montgomery hitting free agency next summer, there is also the possibility that Herbert could be the team’s lead back this time next year.
Hassan Haskins – Tennessee Titans
ADP: 175
2021 RB rank: N/A
The lone rookie on this list, Haskins is a guy I’m acquiring everywhere that I can. People will naturally shy away from him by virtue of the fact he sits behind the behemoth that is Derrick Henry on the depth chart. That will no doubt limit his impact in 2022, but the long-term outlook is significantly more optimistic. Henry turned 28 this offseason, which is typically when running back production begins to decline. Since 2017 there have been just two running backs to average 15 fantasy points per game aged 28 or older.
Henry also started to show signs of wear and tear last season, and it wouldn’t be surprising for him to miss time again in 2022. Looking beyond this year, Henry will carry a $15.5 million cap hit in 2023, with only $3 million of that guaranteed. There is therefore a very realistic possibility that the Titans will have moved on from him this time next year, opening up a big opportunity for Haskins, who is currently the RB2 on Tennessee’s depth chart. With a similar profile and skillset to Henry, Haskins could conceivably take over as the team’s lead back in the near future.
