Matt Rhule’s second season in Carolina felt in many ways like a carbon copy of his first. The team lacked a reliable quarterback, had a poor offensive line, and spent most of the season without Christian McCaffrey. They won just five games, a total they have not exceeded since 2018. This season will be huge for Rhule, who has to show some progression in order to keep his job.
Offseason additions and losses
The biggest move made by Carolina this offseason was their decision to trade for Baker Mayfield. Whilst the former No. 1 overall pick is certainly an upgrade over Sam Darnold, it remains to be seen whether he’s good enough to elevate this offense above mediocrity. They also made a point of addressing their weakness at offensive line with the additions of Austin Corbett and Bradley Bozeman along the interior. Matt Ioannidis joins on a one-year, £5.9 million deal to bolster the defensive line, with Xavier Woods joining on a three-year, $15 million deal to be their starting safety.
The Panthers weren’t without losses this offseason though. Haason Reddick left after just one season in Carolina, joining the Eagles on a marquee deal. Stephon Gilmore also departed, with Carolina failing to match the two-year, $23 million deal he got from Indianapolis. They also lost starting linebacker Jermaine Carter, who played the second most snaps of any defender in Carolina last season.
2022 NFL Draft
| Pick | Player |
| 1.6 | Ikem Ekwonu – OT, NC State |
| 3.94 | Matt Corral – QB, Ole Miss |
| 4.120 | Brandon Smith – LB, Penn State |
| 6.189 | Amaré Barno – EDGE, Virginia Tech |
| 6.199 | Cade Mays – IOL, Tennessee |
| 7.242 | Kalon Barnes – CB, Baylor |
Offensive line was a big problem for the Panthers in 2021 so the decision to take Ikem Ekwonu with their first pick was a no-brainer. Ekwonu was one of the best tackles in college football last season and should reliably protect the blindside of whichever quarterback is under center. The selection of Matt Corral was certainly interesting, particularly given the fact they traded up to do it. In light of the Mayfield trade he’s likely the QB3 for the foreseeable future. The other pick to note was that of Amaré Barno. Barno is a raw prospect, but he boasts elite athletic traits, running a 4.36 40-yard dash at 246 lbs.
Offense
You can’t argue with the talent that Carolina have at skill positions. Christian McCaffrey is arguably the best running back in football when healthy, with the ability to beat the defense as a runner or a receiver. In D.J. Moore they have a legitimate WR1 who has quietly put together over 4,000 yards in his first four seasons, despite consistently poor quarterback play. With Robbie Anderson and an exciting second year prospect in Terrace Marshall behind him they have a truly talented trio.
One of the problems with this team last season was the offensive line, which certain looks better for 2022. The addition of Ikem Ekwonu gives them a good left tackle to start opposite Taylor Moton. Whilst Austin Corbett and Bradley Bozeman aren’t elite by any stretch, they are both competent starters, something the Panthers lacked throughout much of last season. It is difficult to see this being a dominant offensive line, but it should be an improvement on a unit that ranked sixth in adjusted sack rate last season.
There are still concerns though, most notably at quarterback. Baker Mayfield is no doubt an improvement on Sam Darnold, but he wasn’t good when we last saw him play. Even prior to 2021 he looked at best like an average quarterback, and that just isn’t enough for the Panthers to compete with their division rivals. Matt Rhule also made the questionable decision to fire innovative play caller Joe Brady and replace him with Ben McAdoo. McAdoo spent four years with the Giants as either offensive coordinator or head coach and the offense got progressively worse every season, dropping from 15th in DVOA in 2014 to 23rd in 2017.
Defense
Carolina’s defense has transformed under their defensive coordinator Phil Snow. After taking over in 2020, the team really started to click last season, jumping from 24th to seventh in EPA per play in 2021. Snow is the master of multiplicity and runs a diverse front that keeps opponents guessing. He runs a lot of 3-3 stack fronts that you normally see in college football, whilst mixing in healthy amounts of 4-1 and 2-3 fronts amongst others. When you add in the coverage disguises and exotic blitz packages you have the recipe for success.
The team also has some nice young talent to build around. Brian Burns didn’t take the next step that some were expecting in 2021 to put himself in the top tier of edge defenders, but he remains consistently productive as a pass rusher. In the secondary they have safety Jeremy Chinn, a swiss army knife who can play anywhere from free safety to the defensive line. They will also be getting 2021 first round cornerback Jaycee Horn back from injury after he played just three games as a rookie.
The concern facing this unit in 2022 is where the pass rush will be coming from. A big reason for their defensive turnaround last season was the addition of Haason Reddick, giving opposing offenses two legitimate edge rushers to worry about. Their interior linemen aren’t particularly impactful against the pass, leaving Brian Burns to shoulder the load alongside 2020 second round pick Yetur Gross-Matos. Carolina desperately need Gross-Matos to step up in 2022 if they are to maintain their reputation as a stout defensive unit.
Prediction
There’s talent dotted around this Panthers team, but it is difficult to see how they really improved over the offseason. Baker Mayfield feels like a largely sideways step at quarterback and Ben McAdoo is not a good play caller. On the other side of the ball they lost some key pieces that were never replaced. Don’t be surprised if they repeat their 5-12 performance from 2021.
