The 2022 season has sprung its fair share of surprises so far, with a handful of upsets that have made betting against the spread even more challenging than usual. The good news is that there are lots of close lines this weekend, with only one game wider than seven points. Here are my picks for all 16 games.
2022 Against the spread record: 24-24
2022 Straight up record: 30-17-1
Miami Dolphins at Cincinnati Bengals (-4)
I’m not sure anyone other than Dolphins die-hard fans would have expected this, but Miami are unbeaten through three games. Their offense has ascended to the next level under Mike McDaniel, ranking second in the NFL in DVOA and drive success rate. The Bengals on the other hand have failed to click offensively and in contrast to last season they rank dead last in offensive DVOA. I do have some concerns about Miami’s offense and Tua’s injuries, but I still think they can beat the spread.
Pick: Dolphins +4
Minnesota Vikings at New Orleans Saints (+2.5)
I’m still not entirely sure what to make of these two teams through three weeks. The Vikings exploded out of the gate in Week 1 but have been less than convincing since. The Saints on the other hand boast an elite defense (fourth in drive success rate) but their offense is amongst the league’s worst. You can then add in the wildcard factor that is playing in London. This one just comes down to which team I have fewer doubts about, and that is the Vikings at this point. I’d take them to cover the spread and win.
Pick: Vikings -2.5
Buffalo Bills at Baltimore Ravens (+3)
This has to be the game of the week. I know the Bills just lost, but for my money they are still the best team in the NFL. The numbers bear that out too, with Buffalo leading the NFL in yards per drive and drive success rate through three games. They also rank 1st in overall DVOA. The Ravens aren’t that far behind and boast Lamar Jackson, who is playing at an MVP level. A big reason for his outstanding play has been his ability to punish defenses when they send the blitz. Buffalo won’t fall into that trap though, and it could be what gets them the win.
Pick: Bills -3
Chicago Bears at New York Giants (-3.5)
From one of the very best games of the weekend to one of the worst. Both of these teams sit at 2-1, but in truth neither feels very good. The Bears’ inability to move the ball through the air has been a problem so far this season and there are no signs of that improving any time soon. The Giants don’t instill much confidence on either side of the ball and actually rank way down at 29th in Football Outsiders’ Estimated Wins metric. I don’t rate either team very highly, but I think the Bears have the talent on defense to keep things close.
Pick: Bears +3.5
Cleveland Browns at Atlanta Falcons (+1.5)
The fact that the Browns were a crazy Jets comeback away from starting the season 3-0 with Jacoby Brissett at quarterback is legitimately impressive. Granted, they haven’t exactly blown opponents away, but they have played well on both sides of the ball. The Falcons have also exceeded expectations, insomuch as they aren’t a dumpster fire that is being pushed around on a game-by-game basis. The Browns are likely to be missing a few notable names for this one, but I still think they win.
Pick: Browns -1.5
Jacksonville Jaguars at Philadelphia Eagles (-6.5)
If you had told me at the start of the season that I’d be legitimately excited for this matchup I’d have called you crazy. It just goes to show the difference a few weeks can make. Jacksonville is a legitimately good football team under Doug Pederson and they are the only team in the NFL to rank top five in both offensive and defensive DVOA this season. The Eagles on the other hand are the NFC’s lone unbeaten team and seem to have the explosive potential on offense as well as the suffocating talent on defense. I think this one stays close.
Pick: Jaguars +6.5
Los Angeles Chargers at Houston Texans (+5)
All of the preseason optimism around the Chargers looks to have dissipated already. Justin Herbert is struggling with an injury, whilst Rashawn Slater and Joey Bosa have joined a lengthy list of absences. They have also been utterly unable to run the ball, ranking way down at 31st in rushing DVOA. This team needs a bounce back game and opportunities for those don’t come much better than Houston. The Texans are one of just two winless teams remaining and are coming off a loss to the Bears. I think this a game where the Chargers get back on track.
Pick: Chargers -5
New York Jets at Pittsburgh Steelers (-3.5)
The big story here is the return of Zach Wilson, who has missed the first three games of the season with a knee injury. It is difficult to know what to expect from him this season, but if we go by his rookie year it wasn’t good. On the other side, the Steelers aren’t making a switch at quarterback, much to the dismay of many of their fans. I still think they are the better team overall though, despite the issues with Mitchell Trubisky, and I’d bank on them to get the win and cover the spread at home.
Pick: Steelers -3.5
Seattle Seahawks at Detroit Lions (-4.5)
Detroit are every neutral’s favourite team right now and are playing some really exciting football. There is an awful lot to like about their offense, which ranks seventh in DVOA through three games. The same can’t be said of their defense though. They have had some issues against the pass, but it is their run defense that has been truly awful. As things stand, they rank 32nd in rush success rate allowed. That will be music to the ears of Pete Carroll, who can feed Rashaad Penny and get the upset here.
Pick: Seahawks +4.5
Tennessee Titans at Indianapolis Colts (-3)
This should be a fascinating game. Both were fancied in the preseason to compete for the AFC South. Both are only just coming off the first wins of the season. And of course, both build their game around their elite running backs. I don’t trust either team very much at the moment, but I’d lean towards the Colts. The Titans got their win last weekend against a putrid Raiders defense who couldn’t stop the run. The Colts have shown themselves to have an elite run defense, ranking second in rushing DVOA through three weeks. That should be enough to get the win.
Pick: Colts -3
Washington Commanders at Dallas Cowboys (-3)
I know that Cooper Rush caps the Cowboys’ offensive ceiling, but I feel like this spread should be wider. The Commanders defense looks like swiss cheese this season, with a complete inability to stop explosive plays. Last weekend we also saw what happens when the offense comes up against a great defensive front and it wasn’t pretty. Unfortunately for Washington and Wentz, they face another in Dallas, who lead the NFL with a 12.5% adjusted sack rate. I think this is a comfortable Cowboys win.
Pick: Cowboys -3
Arizona Cardinals at Carolina Panthers (-2)
I’m going to start off by saying I want no part of this game in terms of watching it, or betting on it. The Cardinals have been a bit of a mess this season, with no real structure or plan on offense and a defense that can’t get pressure and can’t cover. As things stand, they are allowing a first down on a ridiculous 44.7% of plays. The Panthers might have won last weekend, but they shouldn’t have. The offense is still a train wreck with Baker Mayfield, who ranks dead last in EPA per dropback this season. I’d lean the Cardinals here, but I don’t feel great about it.
Pick: Cardinals +2
Denver Broncos at Las Vegas Raiders (-2.5)
The phrase “growing pains” feels like it pretty well sums up both of these teams this season. The Broncos might be moving the ball fairly well, but they have been a disaster at getting it into the end zone, ranking 31st in points per drive. The Raiders have been better on offense, but it still doesn’t feel like they have reached their potential. Their terrible defense has also cost them a number of times already this season. That is what separates the two teams for me, and I think it will help the Broncos get the win.
Pick: Broncos +2.5
New England Patriots at Green Bay Packers (-10.5)
Things have been rough for the Patriots this season and look to be getting worse, with reports that Mac Jones will miss several weeks a high ankle sprain. Brian Hoyer, who has started just two games since 2017, will take his place. The Patriots will no doubt look to rely on their rushing attack, especially against a Packers defense that ranks 32nd in rushing DVOA this season. New England have enough defensive concerns of their own for Green Bay to get the win, but I think they can still cover.
Pick: Packers -10.5
Kansas City Chiefs at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+2)
Wasted opportunities were the big takeaway from the Chiefs’ loss last week, with the offense looking uncharacteristically timid. Still, this is a unit that ranks fifth in the NFL in both yards and points per drive so far this season and they seem to have a defense to match. Things haven’t been as positive for the Bucs, who have been decimated by injuries on offense. I think that the Bucs defense can give the Chiefs plenty of problems, but Kansas City should just about cover.
Pick: Chiefs -2
Los Angeles Rams at San Francisco 49ers (-2.5)
As always I fully expect this game to be a fascinating divisional matchup. Both teams have had their issues so far this season. The Rams’ offensive decline has been noticeable, whilst the 49ers have lost Trey Lance and are back once again with Jimmy Garoppolo under center. These games are always close and I’d expect the same again here too. Kyle Shanahan tends to have McVay’s number in these games but with injuries mounting I think that the Rams have a great chance to change that narrative.
Pick: Rams -2.5