It seems crazy but Week 4 is somehow already here. As always there are plenty of questions to ask. Which teams are being overhyped? Which rookies have impressed the most? And what upsets do we think could be on the cards this weekend.
Our team of Kevin Sayer, Tayyib Abu, Tom Clapham, and Jack Brentnall answer all of this and more in our Week 4 preview.
We all know how much people tend to overreact to the first few weeks of the season. Is there a team that you think the consensus is too high on? Or maybe one that you think people have mistakenly written off?
Jack: I’m going to incur the wrath of our resident Dolphins fan Tom with this one, but I think we need to pump the brakes on this Miami team. Their 3-0 start is really impressive and that win against Buffalo was huge. The offense is far better than anyone could have predicted, with Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle helping them to lead the NFL in offensive EPA per play through three games.
That said, I’m not sure that their record tells the full story. I’m also pretty certain that they are not the best team in their division, let alone the conference. There was a lot of luck involved in their win over the Bills last week. They had just 212 total yards, compared to the Bills’ 495. We also have to remember just how depleted that Buffalo secondary was in that game. I’m also a little worried about the Dolphins defense. Through three games they rank 30th in yards per drive and 28th in drive success rate allowed. I think they are still a good team, but I don’t see them as contenders.
Kev: The way the season has been so far it’s difficult to pick any teams who are overachieving. Just look at the unbeaten teams – Eagles and Dolphins and that’s it. Looking at all the divisional leaders I wonder where the Rams are right now. They’re the only divisional leader with a minus point differential and right now it’s difficult to know what their offensive identity is. Cam Akers started the season fully fit in a backfield with Darrell Henderson and that unit is underperforming. Los Angeles are 30th in Rushing Yards Per Game and 28th in Yards Per Attempt. The two teams below them are the Dolphins and the Chargers, who are at least firing on all cylinders through the air.
Matthew Stafford and the passing game sit at a league average passing yard statistics. Nothing currently excites me about them outside the brilliant use of heavyweight wide receiver Ben Srowronek as a fullback. I was excited for a Cooper Kupp/Allen Robinson combo, but this hasn’t been as good as expected, with Kupp receiving 35 targets and 28 receptions to Robinson’s 12 and seven respectively.
Even looking at the roster outside the obvious top-heavy talent no exciting talent stands out. I ranted about the Rams’ roster construction on our pod two years back and they won the Super Bowl. I’m not going to make the same mistake again, but I wonder when we’ll see them dominate.
Tayyib: I think it is too early to write off the San Francisco 49ers. Week 1 was an anomaly due to horrendous weather. The game against the Seahawks in Week 2 felt like a preseason game. The loss to the Broncos was a bad one, and while Jimmy Garoppolo is who he is at this stage of his career, it is hard to ask anyone to start on the road at quarterback after a bizarre offseason. Don’t forget that Kyle Shanahan excluded Garoppolo from all team meetings during the preseason period. Garoppolo did not receive a team playbook, and the 49ers told him to practice and train independently away from the team. That is a recipe for disaster.
The fortunate thing for San Francisco is nobody in the NFC West is playing well. They also started slowly before finishing last season on fire. The 49ers also swept the Rams home and away in 2021 and have often had the Rams’ number. As Garoppolo settles into the offense, the 49ers should find some rhythm and consistency.
Tom: As a Dolphins fan the hype has not yet died down for me. Even with Jack’s disrespectful comments I am still hyped for the season ahead. After three games it is somewhat difficult to tell who is going to rise above the rest of the league. The Dolphins and Eagles are both unbeaten but have shown weaknesses. Whereas the Raiders and Texans are yet to officially enter the win column and both have shown real promise. The whispers however are loudest from Raymond James Stadium.
Is Tom Brady finally looking his age? Well if you keep changing the players in front of him, he just might. The Buccaneers have started this season looking very beatable. The defense is still there and that is important, but an offense dealing with four new starters on the offensive line is far from the finished product. Tampa Bay is yet to concede more than 15 points in a single game and have already played Dak Prescott and Aaron Rodgers. They will be in games all year because of that defense. In the past Brady has put teams on his back, but I think that could be a step too far for the G.O.A.T. this season. Maybe retirement was the way to go.
With three games down, let’s look at some rookies. Which player has exceeded your expectations so far this season?
Jack: Chris Olave deserves an honourable mention here, but for me it has to be Devin Lloyd. I liked Lloyd as a prospect, but I was definitely a little lower than the consensus, having him as my LB3 in the class. I expected him to be good, but not this good. Through three games he should be firmly in the conversation for Defensive Rookie of the Year.
He leads all rookies in tackles and his 4% missed tackle rate is the lowest of any rookie linebacker. It has been his performance in coverage that has been truly special though. Lloyd leads the NFL in forced incompletions (yes, you read that right), with two picks and four pass breakups. He has allowed a passer rating of just 50 when targeted so far.
Kev: if you’re picking a project at Number 1 overall you better have a plan. Of all the positions people were slotting Travon Walker into at the pro level, outside linebacker was not one of them. I was a big fan of his ability to defend the run and seal an edge. His unselfish role in the Georgia defense sometimes detracted from what he was capable of. He wowed at all the testing pre-draft and credit to Jacksonville coaches for seeing a fit for his athletic talents.
I think the pleasing part about this situation is they’re allowing him to concentrate on learning one position before asking him to move around too much. Only a handful of Jacksonville’s defensive snaps have seen Walker on the interior or in an overhang slot role.
In three games he’s had five hurries, one QB hit and one sack in addition to a pass breakup and an interception. The interception in question displayed outstanding instincts. I don’t know whether I’ll ever be convinced he was a “Number 1” overall player, but the early signs are promising if he can develop his pass rushing skills.
Tayyib: Drake London has played really well for the Atlanta Falcons. As always in the draft process, analysis eventually leads to paralysis, and many pontificated about London’s inability to create separation. Through three weeks, he’s created more separation than Justin Jefferson. Yes, it is a small sample size, and it may regress as defenders hone in on London. Nonetheless, London’s aggression, versatility, and reliability are helping him lead Atlanta’s offense. London is currently joint fourth in target share across the league and enjoyed another stellar game against the Seahawks.
Tom: I’m channeling my inner Mike Mayock here and picking someone I don’t imagine most are even looking at. That however is where I end my association with the former Raiders GM, because unlike him, I am correct in my analysis of a player. Remember the name Jalen Pitre. Taken in the second round by the Texans, Pitre had to start pretty much right away on a team likely to be chasing all year. So far Pitre is thriving alongside a more well-known rookie defensive back in the form of Derek Stingley Jr.
With 15 total tackles coming into Week 3, he was having a very unremarkable season. Soldier Field and the Chicago Bears were witness to this young man’s arrival. Coming up against last year’s rookie sensation Justin Fields, Pitre was clearly ready to announce himself on the big stage. He finished the game with eight total tackles, a sack, two passes defensed and two interceptions. Now the Texans lost, but he was absolutely the player of the game. If he keeps playing like that, teams will begin to avoid him entirely, which is the biggest compliment this rookie could receive.
There are some great matchups on offer in Week 4. Which game are you most excited to watch, and why?
Jack: I’d have laughed if you’d suggested this game before the start of the season, but for me it is the Eagles-Jaguars game. Both teams have looked excellent through three games, with the Eagles standing as the lone unbeaten team in the NFC. The Jaguars on the other hand seem to have found their feet under Doug Pederson and look legitimately impressive on both sides of the ball.
As things stand the Jaguars rank second in DVOA, behind only the Bills. The Eagles aren’t far behind in fourth. Seeing how the two teams match up will be exciting. Can the Eagles move to 4-0? Will the Jaguars’ talented defensive front get the better of the Eagles’ excellent offensive line? Can Trevor Lawrence continue to impress against one of the better defenses in football? I feel like this game will tell us a lot about how legitimate each team is this season.
Kev: I’m pleased to say I’ll be heading to Spurs Stadium this weekend to see my Vikings play the Saints. So, this may be biased but that’s the game I’m looking forward to. I am somewhat of a lucky charm as I’ve never seen the Vikings lose in person. Both teams are somewhat confusing as to what we can expect of them. Two new head coaches, one more a promotion into the more or less the same scheme and environment, the other a change top to bottom.
The Saints are throwing too many interceptions and allowing too much pressure on Jameis Winston. The defense however is holding teams. They have allowed the fewest completions this season and have a great cornerback tandem in Marshon Lattimore and Paulson Adebo. The Vikings looked unstoppable against Green Bay but have struggled to consistently find open receivers in the following games. This seems to be a key battle as to whether they can find success with Justin Jefferson or take advantage of the attention shown to him.
These teams always serve up classics and neutral venues can throw certain trends out the window, so I expect a low scoring tense game.
Tayyib: I’m looking forward to the Rams and 49ers on Monday Night Football. The 49ers have dominated this rivalry in the McVay-Shanahan era, but the Rams won the last meeting in the NFC Championship Game. The Rams are 2-1 but have played in moments. The running game is non-existent, the offensive line is average, and Matthew Stafford does not trust anyone except Cooper Kupp. Football Outsiders currently rank the Rams 18th in DVOA. This offense is mediocre outside of Stafford and Kupp.
However, the 49ers were miserable on offense in their defeat to the Broncos. Jimmy Garoppolo is still integrating himself into the team, and they are without franchise tackle Trent Williams. The 49ers’ defense is still elite, despite needing to shoulder the burden of a stuttering offense. These two teams do not like each other, and there are always fireworks when the two meet. It promises to be another Californian slug-fest in the Bay Area!
Tom: This slate of games in Week 4 has some real gems. The Dolphins and Bengals should be very fun. I will happily watch the Packers dismantle the Patriots any day of the week. Mahomes has a chance at Superbowl revenge against the Buccaneers and the Lions have a chance to put a serious performance down against a bang average Seahawks. For me the game of the week has got to be the Buffalo Bills’ visit to M&T Bank Stadium to face the Baltimore Ravens.
In 2020, the Ravens’ last trip to the playoffs, the Bills sent them home. Currently Baltimore is 2-1 on the season and sharing the division lead with the Cleveland Browns. The only blemish on their record came in the wild loss to the Miami Dolphins, something they have in common with this week’s opponents. Baltimore has scored the most points this year, with Buffalo third. The issue they will face however is that they have conceded 77 points, whereas Buffalo have only allowed 38. The Bills secondary, one of their strongest units, is threadbare due to injury. If Lamar Jackson gets into the open field, good luck. If Buffalo can contain the Ravens star though, this could be a long, one-sided beatdown for the ages.
Which player matchup are you looking forward to watching in Week 4?
Jack: If you’ve read these Roundtables before you will know I love a WR-CB matchup and I’m not sure that there is a better one this weekend than Justin Jefferson facing off against Marshon Lattimore. After an explosive start in Week 1, Jefferson has been kept fairly quiet by opposing defenses, with just 62 yards in his last two games.
He’s going to have his work cut out to change that this weekend. Lattimore has been stout in coverage all year and has allowed just 23 yards through three games. Perhaps more impressive is the fact that he hasn’t allowed a single completion of more than seven yards. I feel like the winner of this matchup could determine the outcome of the entire game.
Kev: I’m interested in how the Buffalo defensive line and linebackers keep Lamar Jackson quiet. There will be a lot of focus on disrupting him this weekend as the Bills try to protect their injury-ravaged secondary. Jackson, much like the Bill’s own Josh Allen, is producing weekly magic shows driving their respective offenses up and down the field. The Ravens’ star is now playing like a complete quarterback. Between 2019 and 2022 his evolution from athletic talent to quarterback is undeniable.
This season 89% of his passes have come from inside the pocket. He is scrambling far less than he used to and is operating more within the structure of the play. Of course, he’s elite as a ball carrier so when he needs to take off, he can do so. Von Miller and Greg Rousseau have a difficult job in contain and Tremaine Edmunds and Matt Milano will be asked to cover lanes on the interior to keep Jackson boxed in. This entire matchup of Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson against injury depleted secondaries could be dynamite.
Tayyib: Jeff Okudah vs. DK Metcalf is a matchup to savour. After two injury-riddled seasons, Okudah is finally living up to his promise. The Ohio State product shut down Justin Jefferson last Sunday. Jefferson had two catches for nine yards against Okudah. The third-year corner followed Jefferson everywhere and shut him down-just as he shut down Terry McLaurin and DeVonta Smith. Metcalf is a big-bodied wideout with more power and speed. It promises to be a tough assignment for Okudah, but this stoic, resilient competitor will be up for the fight.
Tom: I am limiting myself to one Dolphins-focused point a week and it is tough. Why wouldn’t you all want to hear about the greatest team in the whole world. Hyperbole aside though, Xavien Howard vs Ja’Marr Chase has to be a matchup everyone was circling coming into this season. The second-year pro gets his first shot at the 2020 interceptions leader this week and the masses should be watching. The Dolphins’ secondary has not started great as a unit, with only Jevon Holland as a real standout, whereas Chase has struggled to continue his rookie of the century form from last year too. This matchup is a long time coming and should be incredible, and while the plaudits on the game will likely go elsewhere, I would like to personally request that my camera just sits on those two all night.
Hot take time! Are there any underdogs that you think could get a win this weekend?
Jack: The one that sticks out for me is the Seahawks beating the Lions. I’m hesitant about picking every neutral’s favourite team to lose, but I think there’s more of a chance than people realise. The Lions’ offense has been legitimately impressive, but outside of a few standout players, the defense hasn’t functioned as it should. Their inability to stop the run has been a big problem and they rank dead last in the NFL in rushing success rate allowed. That could be an issue against a Seahawks offense that wants to run the ball.
Kev: My record in these has been horrendous so far. I don’t think it’s too far a stretch to say Houston Texans pick up their first win this season against the hobbling Chargers. Every year it seems there’s optimism for the Bolts but every year fate vomits all over their pretty uniforms. Without star left tackle Rashawn Slater for the season, Jalen Guyton, Joey Bosa and question marks over Justin Herbert and Keenan Allen it truly is “next man up”.
Houston is rebuilding and trying to erase the past. The resurgence of Cover 2 schemes is like catnip to Lovie Smith who’s somehow managed to find himself back in the coaching circle. This is the first full haul of draft picks Houston have had for some time and it’s encouraging to see Derek Stingley, Jalen Pitre and Dameon Pierce get early success. They just have to get something going offensively. Remember when Davis Mills was good enough for Texans for the foreseeable future? That seems a long way off now…..
Tayyib: Doug Pederson and the Jacksonville Jaguars possess the players to stun the Eagles. And they arguably have the more talented quarterback. The Jags must play a near-perfect game, but they have done that in the last two weeks. Add an athletic defensive front, a run game capable of going wild, and the Lawrence X-Factor, and these Jaguars might just do it.
Tom: If I have said this once, I have said this a thousand times, the New York Giants are not a good football team. They are pretenders – they beat a bad Titans side by one point and then a below average Panthers by three. They then got their business handled by a Cooper Rush-led Cowboys. Now they prepare to face the Bears. They are favourites to win because they have faced bad teams so far this season, but they won’t take this one home. It will be a battle of attrition with both teams capable of losing this weekend. I might be wrong in this prediction come Monday morning, but even if the Giants move to 3-1 they are still terrible and the Daniel Jones experiment is an abject failure.