I can’t remember a more hyped prospect coming out of college than Trevor Lawrence. The former Clemson quarterback was seemingly the consensus No. 1 pick in an era when consensus is increasingly hard to come by. People were touting him as a generational prospect and comparing him to some of the game’s very best before he had played a snap in the NFL.
Expectations were sky high out of the gate, but things got off to a rough start. Lawrence fell victim to the Urban Meyer experiment in Jacksonville and that torpedoed any chance of success in his rookie year. With Doug Pederson now at the helm, things seem to have changed. The Jaguars have started the season 2-1 and rank fifth in offensive DVOA through Week 3. Lawrence ranks fifth in EPA per play this season, ahead of the likes of Aaron Rodgers and Justin Herbert.
So, how has this happened? And what is Lawrence doing this season that is causing opposing defenses so many problems? I’ve picked out three areas of strength for Lawrence that have formed the foundation of the Jaguars’ passing game. Let’s dive into last week’s film against the Chargers and explore them in some detail.
Accuracy
One of the noticeable areas of improvement for Lawrence this season has been his accuracy. He struggled with this aspect of his game as a rookie, logging an adjusted completion percentage of just 72.4% in 2021. For context, that ranked 29th in the NFL, tied with Andy Dalton and Jalen Hurts. So far this season, Lawrence has climbed all the way up to 78.6%. Right now, that is good enough for seventh in the NFL.
This accuracy has helped to make Doug Pederson’s RPO-heavy offense work brilliantly in Jacksonville. If you want to execute RPOs to a high level, you need a quarterback capable of making quick decisions and getting the ball out accurately and on time. Lawrence can do just that.
This play perfectly encapsulates that fact. Whilst it might not be the most difficult throw you will see, Lawrence still does a great job. The Jaguars are running a pre-snap RPO. This means that Lawrence will make the decision on whether to throw or hand the ball off to the running back based on the look the defense gives him before the snap. In this instance he is reading cornerback Michal Davis (#43) at the bottom of the screen. With Davis giving wide receiver Marvin Jones a huge cushion, Lawrence knows he will have his receiver open on the out route.
It is a measure of Lawrence’s arm talent that he delivers this ball accurately despite not properly setting his feet and lining the throw up. Notice also how Lawrence makes a subtle adjustment to the ball placement to protect his receiver. Knowing there will be a big collision if he leads his man outside, Lawrence places the ball on his inside shoulder, shielding him from contact.
Whilst that might not have been a spectacular throw, this play certainly was. Once again it epitomises the improvement Lawrence has shown with his accuracy. This is a throw that few quarterbacks would back themselves to make, with even fewer being able to actually deliver the ball this well. Lawrence reads the safety rotation at the snap and with the Chargers playing a single-high coverage he knows he has a one on one with his X receiver to the bottom of the screen. His ability then to deliver the ball with sufficient touch and placement over the head of the defender is truly outstanding.
Football intelligence
Another area of improvement for Lawrence has been his football intelligence and decision making. In fairness to him, these have always been strengths. His ability to process the game like an NFL veteran and throw with anticipation were a big part of his appeal as a prospect. He has just managed to get better at it this season. This shows up in the numbers too. Whilst he has maintained his 3.4% big-time throw rate from last season, he has reduced his turnover-worthy play rate from 3.7% to just 2.4%.
He showed his cerebral ability multiple times against the Chargers. On this play the Chargers start out in a two-high shell. They are also threatening the blitz, with six defenders around the line of scrimmage. In reality, both of these are bluffs from the defense. After the snap, Lawrence registers that there is no blitz and that they are only sending four rushers. He also notices that the safeties have rotated into a single-high coverage.
The fact that Lawrence absorbs all of this information so quickly is very impressive for a young quarterback. He understands that the switch to a single-high shell leaves him with a favourable one-on-one matchup to Zay Jones (#7). Jones is lined up as the outside receiver in the bunch formation to the bottom of the screen and is running a dig route.
This is an ideal play as the cornerback is playing soft coverage with outside leverage. With the shallow routes occupying the underneath defenders, Lawrence knows he will have a window to throw to Jones. Not only does he deliver an accurate pass, but you can see how he throws with anticipation. Notice how he starts his throwing motion before Jones has even made his break. That is the kind of thing you see from top tier quarterbacks.
This next play is another great example of his football intelligence. It looks like the Jaguars are running some variation of the Levels concept. This is where multiple receivers run across the field at different depths in an attempt to exploit holes in the defense and create high-low opportunities for the quarterback. Lawrence keys in on Christian Kirk (#13) and whilst the throw is impressive, it is all of the other little things that make it special.
Notice Lawrence progress through his reads to Kirk. Once Kirk reaches the hash marks, you see Lawrence reset his feet slightly. This impacts the linebacker Drue Tranquill (#49), who shifts his feet to follow Lawrence’s eyes. That is exactly what Lawrence was hoping would happen. That split second decision wrongfoots the linebacker and Lawrence is able to thread the ball behind him to Kirk. Though the pass is dropped, it doesn’t change the fact that this was an excellent throw.
Here is another play that looks deceptively simple at first glance. On this play Doug Pederson has drawn up a screen to Jamal Agnew (#39) at the bottom of the screen. You will notice that the right side of the offensive line therefore does not pass block, as they are pre-occupied with getting out in front of their receiver to lead block on the screen.
Lawrence however quickly identifies a favourable matchup with Kirk to the top of the screen. With the defender once again playing off coverage he knows that the quick out will be open. His poise and composure to deliver an accurate throw with defenders bearing down on him is hugely impressive.
Play extension
All of the plays so far have shown how effective Lawrence is when working from the pocket. That has been a big part of his success this season, but it would be remiss not to mention his ability as a play extender. He has shown on numerous occasions that he is excellent at working outside of structure. This pair of red zone plays against the Chargers embody that perfectly.
On this play the Jaguars come out in an empty formation. Lawrence starts the play by reading the three man route combination at the top of the screen. He quickly realises that none of those receivers are open, but he doesn’t panic. Instead, he stays calm and works to the backside of the play. He sees here that his receivers are once again locked up, with no open throws. Notice how he stays calm in the pocket and doesn’t bounce around in the way that a lot of young quarterbacks might do.
The interior pressure eventually gets to him and forces him off his spot. When this happens, Lawrence does a great job of staying cool and collected. What separates him from a lot of younger athletic quarterbacks is his willingness to keep his eyes downfield and look for the throw, rather than tucking and running. This allows him to find Zay Jones in the back of the end zone, with the ball delivered perfectly for a touchdown.
This play might have been Lawrence’s most impressive throw of the entire game. Whilst the touchdown was overturned on review, Lawrence did everything he could to give his receiver a chance. He once again shows good poise to stand in and work from the pocket, but there is nothing open. He then senses the pressure to his right and rolls out of the pocket.
The throw here is perfect. Lawrence delivers a pinpoint strike, despite being on the move and not having chance to set his feet. The ball is delivered in a spot where only his receiver can get it, and he almost hauls it in. If he is capable of making throws like this, then no defense in the NFL is safe.
We might only be three games into the 2022 season, but Lawrence has shown some really exciting flashes. Things appear to have clicked for him under new head coach Doug Pederson. He looks like a quarterback in command of his offense, and he has shown that he has the ability to make every throw you could ask of him. It remains to be seen if the Jaguars can keep up this current form, but they can rest easy knowing that they have their quarterback of the future in Lawrence.
