The college football season is incredibly already one month in. There’s been some great games so far and so many talking points. To go over what happened in September, we have myself Kev, the boss Jack, and my co-host from NFL Draft Punk Podcast Pete Barlow.
We didn’t discuss it last time but plans are now afoot. What do you think about CFP (College Football Playoff) expansion? Good? Bad? Indifferent? Give me your takes
Kev: There’s far too much money in and around college football now be it NIL, TV Deals, coaches salaries or what attendance/tickets are worth to a college. When money gets involved in anything you have a divide. It is possible the expansion with NIL and the transfer portal may change the condensed talent pool landscape. The results may not be immediate but over three or four years of an expanded CFP we could see consistent challengers rise up the rankings and regularly test the usual big dogs at the top of the rankings (no Georgia pun intended). We will more than likely still see the same teams lifting the trophy, but there is now an opportunity to be invited to compete, rather than it being a closed shop to the elite few.
The positive news for me is more bowl games that matter. Too often future NFL players will drop out of bowl games leaving them largely insignificant (but at times entertaining). College football has a tremendous history relating to the yearly bowls which is dwindling as each year passes. The idea to rotate the Bowl games, like the “New Year’s Six”, will ensure a maximum TV audience and a substantial payday for participants.
The negative for me is the automatic seedings for the four top conference champions. This was a sticking point for Big Ten commissioner Kevin Warren. The conferences are looking to abandon divisions to ensure parity. In reality this goes against that. You could very easily have a two-loss Big 12 champion ranked higher than a one-loss SEC team.
Jack: My feelings on the whole thing are pretty mixed. On the one hand, the idea of extra knockout games is always going to be exciting. The drama, the spectacle, and everything that comes with it is after all a big part of why we love college football. The four-team playoff never really felt right. In many ways it felt like the CFP was out of reach for so many teams. It also created a situation where we had a bunch of now-meaningless bowl games to watch.
On the flip side, I remain sceptical. I think a big motivating factor behind the expansion is to ensure we start seeing different teams in the playoffs. I don’t think the current situation is healthy for the sport, given that we can all pretty much predict the top four with a reasonable degree of accuracy before the season starts. Then again, I’m not sure that expanding the playoffs to 12 teams addresses the fundamental imbalances in college football that have left us in that lopsided situation in the first place!
Pete: As a fan of knockout competitions then I am very much excited for extra playoff games. I suspect that we will see fewer players opting out of bowl games now they have a chance to play for a National Championship. It will be a blessed relief to have the best teams compete against each other with something to play for. The current reality is we try to convince ourselves that bowl games really do matter when the best draft eligible players are standing on the sideline. The number of games with playoff repercussions, especially late in the season, will make Saturday afternoons even more gripping.
The impact of the conference championship games on the playoff rankings is another wrinkle I like. An underdog that is outside the playoff contention winning the conference title could really throw a cat amongst the pigeons. Another benefit could be the impact on the transfer portal and recruiting. I think that to an extent this is already starting to be realised. Players that had a bit-part role on highly successful teams have transferred and are flourishing. Drew Sanders at Arkansas is a great example. The opportunity to garner national recognition following a transfer instead of sitting on the bench of a perennial playoff team could be an attractive proposition. Not having the best players concentrated on a handful of teams will only improve the overall product of CFB. Expect transfers to be even more frequent! Whether you agree with this is a debate for another day though.
Okay, onto the season. Which team performance good or bad has been the highlight story so far?
Kev: I’ll start with my own shame; I was all in on Notre Dame. Maybe it was the inspirational words pumped out at the close of last season by first time coach Marcus Freeman. Maybe it was the top 10 recruiting class, the best in school history. There was no shame in the loss in last season’s Fiesta Bowl against a very competitive Oklahoma State. Even after a hard-fought opener against an obviously superior Ohio State team I was confident we’d see an upward trend. The Ohio State game was well coached, and the defense in particular were organised to frustrate their opponent’s firepower.
What followed was difficult to believe with a humbling loss to the Sun Belt’s Marshall.
A game that started with Freeman being cheered ended up with him being jeered! To add to the pressure cooker he is the first Notre Dame coach to lose his first three games. Some much-needed confidence building has occurred with wins over the Cal Bears and North Carolina. The Cal game wasn’t exactly pretty though!
They currently average 25 points a game, which ranks 81st in the FBS. They also sit 70th in yards per completion and 72nd on yards per rush. The belief was that this team and their offensive line could bully people and run the ball. And yet, it’s just not happened. Worryingly, the defense sits 54th in points allowed per game. Through four games they have one turnover (a fumble against UNC) and zero interceptions.
There is hope with the aforementioned recruiting class, and it is still early days in Freeman’s coaching tenure. BYU this week is fortunately in a neutral venue and whilst an 8-4 season (Clemson are also a future fixture) would not be a disaster, it’s certainly not what fans (or me) were expecting.
Jack: For me there is only one answer and that is Florida State. I was a fan of the Mike Norvell hire in 2020 but things didn’t get off to a great start. Going 8-13 through his first two seasons raised eyebrows, but it seems like things have finally turned a corner. The Seminoles are unbeaten through four games and currently sit at No. 23 in the AP poll.
Many of the questions ahead of the season concerned the offense. Specifically, it was whether they could get the job done with Jordan Travis at quarterback. The answer is a defiant “yes”. Travis has taken his game to the next level and has established himself as one of the best quarterbacks in college football. Through four games the Seminoles’ offense rank 17th in EPA per play. They are all the way up at eighth in EPA per dropback.
There has been plenty to like on the defensive side of the ball too. Former Albany edge Jared Verse has been excellent and is fast establishing himself as a name to watch for NFL Draft fans. He has nine pressures, including three sacks, through just three games. The big question facing this team now is whether they can continue to perform at such a high level in big games. After all, their next three games are all against ranked opponents, culminating in No. 5 Clemson. That game, along with Wake Forest and NC State beforehand will tell us a lot about this team.
Pete: If Kev is going to dwell on his Notre Dame shame, I am going to do the opposite and blow my own trumpet. On our show at the start of the year I predicted Minnesota to surprise everyone, but even I didn’t expect them to be this impressive. Offensively they rank 12th in yards per game (497.7 yards) and 15th in points per game (40.3 points). Kirk Ciarrocca’s return has seen a resurgence in Tanner Morgan’s game after two faltering years in Mike Samford’s anaemic offense. He’s making great reads, is accurate over the middle of the field, and seems in tune with Ciarrocca’s RPO-heavy offense. The return from injury of Running Back Mo Ibrahim is forcing teams to respect the run. This is putting opposing defenses in a bind on how to stop the Gophers’ multi-purpose attack.
Admittedly, the non-conference schedule was kind to Minnesota, but they did what good teams do – they beat lesser opposition and comfortably covered the spread. What was impressive was to go to East Lansing and destroy Michigan State. Amazingly the final score of 34-7 flattered the Spartans. Michigan State’s pass defense has looked shaky for some time, but the run defense had been good all year. They had been limiting teams to under 2.7 yards per rush prior to facing Minnesota. The Gophers’ offensive line absolutely dominated and imposed their will as Mo Ibrahim ran for over 100 yards for the 13th consecutive games. Morgan was efficient and even without Chris Autman-Bell, finishing 23 of 26 for three touchdowns. There are trickier defenses ahead for the Gophers, but the Big 10 West is wide open, and Minnesota is geared up to sustain this success.
There have been some wild games inside the first four weeks. Which has been your standout?
Kev: I’ll take you to Week 1. North Carolina at App State. Week 1 is always one of my favourite weekends of the year. This game didn’t disappoint with a 63-61 score line in favour of the visitors. Despite being in the same state, this fixture had only occurred twice before, once in 1940 and once in 2019. We can only hope it’s a regular on the calendar. 62 points were scored in the fourth quarter alone. Whilst not a day for defensive purists, the entertainment factor was high, with 40 of those 62 points going to App State in the fourth quarter. Final seconds drama with two consecutive missed two-point conversions by the Mountaineers finally giving the Tar Heels the victory. The game has even spawned an unofficial trophy. It’s everything you love in College Football in one game.
Jack: I have to admit I really enjoyed the Texas-Alabama game. This looked like it would be a walkover, but it ended up as anything but. The Longhorns managed to deliver an excellent game, running the Crimson Tide right down to the wire. The fact they did this without Quinn Ewers for much of the game just made the whole thing more impressive. The entire contest was a tense and close-fought affair, with neither team ever looking entirely comfortable with the lead. The fact that it ended with an outstanding game-winning drive from Bryce Young just served to make it even more entertaining.
Pete: Week 1 saw the start of Brian Kelly’s reign at LSU as they hosted Florida State Seminoles in a game which left fans speechless. It wasn’t a great game from a technical perspective, but the mishaps including multiple muffed punts, untimely fumbles, and missed kicks all added another layer to the disbelief I felt watching it. Mike Norvell had drawn criticism from Seminoles fans, but his team came away from Louisiana with a 24-23 win. This could very nearly have been a heart-breaking loss as they almost surrendered a 14-point lead. The first half was characterised by Seminoles quarterback Jordan Travis making a number of plays and his LSU counterpart Jayden Daniels, having a Kayshon Boutte-shaped blind spot.
It was late in the fourth quarter where the game really came to life though. FSU were seven points ahead and punted deep into LSU territory with a little over two minutes left, only for Malik Nabers to muff the punt (his second of the day). FSU recovered and just had to retain possession, run time off the clock, and at worst come away with three points and very little time left for LSU to respond. Treshaun Ward fumbling on the one-yard line certainly wasn’t part of the plan. Jayden Daniels then led the Tigers on a 99-yard touchdown drive as time expired.
With overtime looming, FSU blocked the extra point onto the crossbar – their second blocked kick of the day. Unreal twists and turns and everything we love about college football. Unless you are an LSU fan of course. Also, it led to Jordan Travis selling ‘Tiger King’ merch on his website at the price of – you’ve guessed it – $24.23. Great trolling!
As we enter a mostly full on conference schedule, which teams and their respective future games are on your watchlist?
Kev: To me the Big 12 is wide open right now. My preseason pick of Oklahoma State still feels like the right choice, but I’ll be amazed if we don’t have a two-loss team in the Big 12 championship game. This weekend’s big matchup for the Cowboys is against Baylor whose defensive line is stopping all rushing attacks they’ve faced. Spencer Sanders however is playing very well so far at quarterback and can create outside of structure if he needs to.
Looking around the conference, Kansas State’s victory over Oklahoma last weekend felt like a massive blow to Brent Venables’ high-octane bubble. Texas are a two-loss team, albeit one in the conference. The loss of Quinn Ewers in the cruel loss to Alabama was potentially a turning point in their season. Kansas is the feel-good story behind overlooked QB Jalon Daniels. Recruited out of California in the same class as Bryce Young and CJ Stroud, Daniels has breathed life into a program who hold the record of the longest drought since appearing in the AP Top 25 poll. Iowa State feels like they missed their chance with so many players leaving after last season’s underwhelming campaign. TCU & Texas Tech can provide the “party pooper” role in a competitive two-month schedule. Watch this space!
Jack: This is my chance to atone for my error in our 2022 season preview when I called out USC. I had suggested that many were being unrealistic with their expectations for the Trojans this season. Well, we are four games in, and they are sitting pretty at 4-0. The offense is, perhaps predictably, firing on all cylinders and they rank second in EPA per play, behind only Ohio State.
The rest of their schedule might not have many big-name opponents, but I’m really fascinated to see if they can keep this up. One reason they are on my watchlist is because of how fun it is to watch a Lincoln Riley offense when it is really cooking. The game against Utah on 15th October will be their biggest challenge. If they can overcome that, this is a team with a legitimate shot of finishing with an unbeaten season. I’d love to see what they can do in the playoffs if they make it. Could they challenge some of the regulars when they get there?
Pete: I am going back to the Big Ten and this time the East Division. Ohio State, Michigan & Penn State are all unbeaten and ranked inside the Top 11, and the fact they have to play against each other is mouth-watering. It is likely that all of those teams will be favourites in every other game they play, so the three games between them could decide not only the Big Ten East, but also the Big Ten representation in the playoffs. A small part of me wants to see them all take one game from each other and a three-way tie for the division lead. Good luck sorting that mess out for the rankings! Ohio State has looked every inch the playoff team and CJ Stroud a Heisman favourite, so the expectation would be for them to come through.
Michigan had possibly the softest out of conference schedule in the FBS and laboured to a win over Maryland. For me, the jury is still out on their credentials this season. I fully expect them to scrape by in close games as Blake Corum is on fire. If JJ McCarthy can prove his fumbles against Maryland were a one-off, then they could well go into Week 12 against Ohio State with a chance to win the division. Penn State has surprised me the most, though their three-game run between Weeks 6 to 8 of Michigan, Minnesota and Ohio State looks brutal. They are playing well, but keeping the true freshman one-two punch of running backs Kaytron Allen and Nick Singleton fresh and firing will be essential to their chances of pulling off some upsets against the Wolverines and Buckeyes.
Finally, which players are you excited about seeing for the rest of the season and beyond, specifically with one eye on the 2023 NFL Draft?
Kev: I hate to be a homer but I’m really enjoying the explosive Tennessee Vols offense. I was hopeful before the start of this season that they would continue the good work from last year. So far, they have not skipped a beat.
Hendon Hooker has been nothing but sensational since taking the starting job from Joe Milton last season. He’s cool under pressure and has calm feet in the pocket. He is also able to tuck and run and gain yardage should the situation warrant it. His 450 all-purpose yards against Florida show they can keep up with any opposition in the SEC. Whispers of Heisman Trophy now follow him around and rightfully so. It’s difficult to gauge his draft stock as he’s an older prospect, but if he continues on this path he could rise to a day two pick.
His two receivers warrant mentions, with speedster Jallin Hyatt and draft riser Cedric Tillman. Hyatt is a junior who has risen through the ranks of the depth chart following Velus Jones and Josh Palmer’s moves into the pro game. He’s taken his opportunities and gives Hooker that burst on the outside. Tillman has the exact measurables teams look for in an X receiver, at 6’3 215lbs with a dense proportionate frame. We could see these 3 names earlier than originally expected on draft day.
Jack: Everyone loves to talk about and read about quarterbacks, and I’m certainly no different. Everyone knows the unanimous top two of CJ Stroud and Bryce Young, but there’s uncertainty behind them. I can already think of a handful of players in the running, but none seem to be there just yet.
Kev has already mentioned Hendon Hooker. There’s a tonne to like about his game, but some will be concerned that he turns 25 before his rookie season. BYU’s Jaren Hall falls into the same category. Personally, I was a big fan of Devin Leary before the season started, but his 2022 has been a mixed bag so far. You then have the guys who were built in a lab like Anthony Richardson and Will Levis. Both have all the tools, but their inability to consistently put it all together has harmed their chances of success. It really is a wide-open race right now. Seeing how these players progress will be fascinating and I can’t wait to see which one pulls away from the rest.
Pete: For me the race to be OT1 is still anyone’s guess. I am looking forward to seeing whether someone like Peter Skoronski can separate himself as we get deeper into conference games. He has looked like a real technician, especially in pass protection, since stepping into the starting left tackle role as a true freshman in 2020. Skoronski has developed in the run game too and I have been impressed with his ability to sustain blocks and drive defenders off the line of scrimmage. The question will be whether the perceived lack of length is an issue. We will find out as he faces sterner opposition in the coming weeks.
His matchup with Wisconsin’s Nick Herbig in Week 6 will be a must watch. This is not just because it is two highly-rated prospects. It will also allow for a comparison between Skoronski and another OT1 contender in Paris Johnson. The Buckeyes left tackle largely shut down Herbig when they faced off recently, albeit in limited reps. Outside of Skoronski & Johnson, there are plenty of names in contention to be OT1 – Georgia’s Broderick Jones, Maryland’s Jaelyn Duncan, Syracuse’s Matthew Bergeron to name but a few. There is a real opportunity to stake a claim to be the first off the board in the 2023 Draft. For me Skoronski is in pole position right now.
