We’re three weeks into the college football season, yet the top spots of the Top 25 poll have a familiar feel about them. With Georgia and Alabama looking down from their perch, they extend their own active top five streak to 20 and 37 consecutive polls respectively. Alabama unsurprisingly holds the record for appearances at the number one spot with 139.
Moving down the list at three are the much-fancied offensive firepower of Ohio State. It’s difficult to see beyond these perennial juggernauts being in one of these spots in December. What of the chasing pack? Which team can grab the remaining spot and provide a realistic challenge as we head into the divisional and conference games?
The Favourite
Michigan
“Big Blue” fans will be spitting out their tea with me giving the game to bitter rivals Ohio State on 26th November. Their offense is rolling right now though, ranking eighth overall in yards per play, 15th in rushing yards per game and first overall in points per game with 55.3. Their rushing success is spearheaded by powerhouse back Blake Corum, who leads the country with seven rushing touchdowns. They will lean on this, and the complimentary passing attack led by quarterback J.J. McCarthy, whose completion percentage currently sits at 88%.
Whilst defensively they have appeared dominant, their real games start this weekend against a dangerous Maryland team who’ll look to air it out and stretch the field. Previous opponents Colorado State, Hawaii & Connecticut have barely given us an idea of what we can expect defensively from the Wolverines this season. But this is Michigan, who have given us previous Bruce Feldman Freak List contributors Kwity Paye and Aidan Hutchinson. This season they have Mazi Smith at defensive tackle, who Feldman had at the top of his 2022 list.
To stand any chance they’ll need to meet Ohio State unbeaten and prove they can make CJ Stroud’s life uncomfortable by covering his wealth of offensive options. Testing Big Ten East games against Penn State and winning back the Paul Bunyan trophy from Michigan State will both be in The Big House, but the big game is at “The Shoe”.
Key Player: It’s critical Michigan keep both Blake Corum and Donovan Edwards fit and healthy as a one-two running back punch.
Key Game: What else – Ohio State 26th November. Make sure you’re watching.
Outlook: Michigan either gets in as Big Ten champion or not at all. Too many other chips have to fall into place otherwise.
The Former Regular
Clemson
Last season the Tigers missed the CFP for the first time since 2014. Getting back there this year is key, with Dabo Swinney recently signing a 10-year contract extension. Clemson’s offensive struggles in 2021 were well documented. The passing efficiency went from 12th in the Power Five to 58th in the space of one season. With a paltry 191 passing yards per game leaving them 103rd in the FBS, many wondered if Dabo Swinney would make a change at quarterback. Despite another wayward performance in spring practice, DJ Uiagalelei was given the (dreaded) vote of confidence. Whilst his performances so far have not been spectacular, his most recent game should build confidence before the intensity of ACC games.
One reason for the change is the incorporation of DJ’s usage in the run game. The ratio of zone read plays are on the rise and provide a dynamite running game with Will Shipley in the mix. Uiagalelei shed 30 pounds in the off season in the hope that a leaner frame can improve his agility, but will this lead to an improvement in timing and accuracy? The question remains as to whether DJ can win key games against the likes of NC State and Wake Forest if he needs to. The availability and fitness of the receivers led by senior receiver Joseph Ngata will be another storyline to watch.
Clemson’s strength is of course in their rock solid defensive line. The embarrassment of riches allows them starting level players on rotation keeping the unit fresh. Currently only KJ Henry has averaged more than 35 snaps per game. Last season they ranked inside the top ten in yards allowed (eighth), rushing yards allowed (seventh), sacks (9th) and average points per game (second with a measly 14.3). All this was without five-star defensive tackle Bryan Bresee, who missed most of the 2021 season. Don’t be surprised if they are ranked as the top defense nationally despite losing DC Brent Venables.
Key Player: Trenton Simpson’s change of position to Will linebacker this season allows new defensive coordinator Wes Goodwin plenty of versatility in his coverage looks. Simpson should ascend to a first-round pick come draft time.
Key Game: They’re off to a fast start against Wake Forest this weekend but it’s NC State at home entering October which will set the tone for the season. Can they get revenge following last season’s defeat in double overtime?
Outlook: If Clemson are unbeaten and ACC champions it’s difficult to see a similarly unbeaten Big 12 or Pac-12 team being ranked higher.
The Consistent Challenger
Oklahoma
It’s hard to believe the sudden levels of optimism in Norman following the doom and gloom of Lincoln Riley’s departure. New coach Brent Venables added 31 players to the roster this offseason, 10 of which came in from the portal. It was the transfer of former UCF quarterback Dillon Gabriel that may be the most inspired. Reuniting him with former coach Jeff Lebby will see no change to the Sooners’ reputation of producing explosive offenses. Speedy deep threat Marvin Mims currently averages 22 yards per reception and running back Eric Gray will finally have a chance to produce at a level his athletic talent demands.
The difference in this coaching staff should be the commitment to both sides of the ball. Venables’ legacy at Clemson revolved around a suffocating defensive line with confusing pre-snap looks that put stress on opposing quarterbacks. Entering conference play they’re currently ninth in the FBS in opponent points per game and 11th in Yards Per Play. These statistics may change following early season gimme wins against UTEP, Kent State and a hugely disorganised Nebraska.
The tests come big and early with Kansas State then Texas in mid October, before facing Baylor in early November. These need to be navigated before Bedlam on 19th November.
Oklahoma are of course planning for the long term with a move to the SEC bringing a jump up in competition. Getting the fourth spot would be a real boost to confidence and further solidify recruiting potential in their future landscape.
Key Player: Dillon Gabriel is playing as well as anyone could have hoped. He’s efficient and has nine total touchdowns and zero interceptions thus far. The Sooners need their offense to continue to hum smoothly.
Key Game: The Red River Rivalry in 2021 was the highest scoring ever and the outcome this year remains unpredictable. The 8th October will be another passionate affair.
Outlook: I predicted Oklahoma Vs Oklahoma State as the Big 12 Championship game. The conference feels open, but Venables’ defensive influence could push an unbeaten Sooner team to fourth spot should Clemson falter.
The Sleeping Giant
USC
Is an emergence occurring in California under new coach Lincoln Riley? Despite being sixth all time on AP Top 25 appearances, the Trojans’ streak of 42 consecutive appearances in the top five ended in 2005. Their last appearance was in 2017. So, despite their star brand they appear here as an outlier ranked eighth ahead of Pac-12 co-members Oregon and Utah, who both faltered early.
Riley was another newly appointed coach who made the most of the transfer portal. Caleb Williams has the potential to be great and bring the glory days back. Pairing him with the safe hands of Jordan Addison and dangerous back Travis Dye gives the Trojans offensive “triplets” to rival any team.
In their Week 3 game they allowed Fresno State to make just two trips to the end zone. They did however put up 421 yards of total offense. A deeper concern is how easily opposing teams have run the ball on the Trojans. The defense sits 88th nationally, conceding 177 rushing yards per game. The opponents so far Rice, Stanford and Fresno State.
The schedule is not a challenging one. Their only scheduled game against a Top 25 team is away at Utah. The Utes will provide a physical test both offensively and defensively and will give us a window into the identity of this USC outfit.
Key Player: It can only be Caleb Williams, who looks every part advertised as the next star at the position.
Key Game: The Utes away on the 15th October will be the first real test against tough opposition in what is an otherwise easy schedule.
Outlook: USC’s schedule could be their downfall. If they overcome Utah they’ll be hoping for a Notre Dame resurgence so their final game on the 26th November holds more meaning.
The Outsider
Oklahoma State
Oklahoma State came within a yard of Big 12 Championship success several times in last season’s game against Baylor. In the past 12 Championship games (which spans 17 years), their noisy neighbours Oklahoma account for nine, Texas two, and last year’s victor Baylor one. Mike Gundy always seems to be the “nearly” man in the conference. His record however is impressive. Seven 10-win seasons since 2010 shows a consistency in an inconsistent sport that most fan bases would covet. If they had triumphed over Baylor last season there would’ve been an interesting conversation between the Cowboys and Cincinnati for the fourth CFP spot.
The band were mostly kept together for another run, with the defensive front in particular being a formidable returning unit. Last season they nullified any run game and squeezed the quarterback’s time with interior pressure. The good news is they still have the personnel to do so. They were the second ranked defense last season in TFLs and sacks, and fourth in yards per game. Despite the change in coordinator, Derek Mason still has Tyler Lacy, Brock Martin and last year’s 11.5 sack freshman Collin Oliver at his disposal. The inexperienced secondary will be tested, and Hard Knocks standout Malcolm Rodriguez will be a big loss. Spencer Sanders is back at quarterbak and despite some inconsistencies has made strides as a passer and is always a threat with his legs.
Their chance for revenge begins early with an away fixture at Baylor. Texas and Iowa State are both in Stillwater before the big rivalry Bedlam game Vs Oklahoma. It won’t be a straightforward run but if the chips fall into place don’t be surprised to see them take the fourth spot.
Key Player: The Pokes will live and die by Spencer Sanders. He has already put up 916 yards, with 10 touchdowns to one interception.
Key Game: It all starts this weekend against a dangerous Baylor team still licking their wounds from a BYU defeat. This game, like the Big 12 championship, could also come down to the wire.
Outlook: The Big 12 is very competitive and it would be a surprise if any team came out of this conference unbeaten. Oklahoma State has the type of roster and experience to avoid the potential “banana skin” game.
The Unbeaten Chancers
There are 33 unbeaten teams but only the below deserve a realistic mention:
Penn State
Penn State have already played two of their most difficult away fixtures winning them convincingly. Auburn may not be an SEC powerhouse, but returning home from the south with a win makes a statement. They have the talented Nicholas Singleton bringing some downhill burst with returning receiver Parker Washington and Western Kentucky transfer Mitchell Tinsley. Will they be capped by the play of QB Sean Clifford? Can he show up in the big games? The big test arrives on 15th October against Michigan in Ann Arbor.
NC State
Probably the only realistic team to stop Clemson in the ACC. The defense is everything we thought, however the bizarre opener against East Carolina is difficult to forget.
Quarterback Devin Leary needs to rediscover last season’s form which saw him accumulate 3,433 yards with 35 touchdowns and only five interceptions. His accuracy is wayward this season and they need him firing to lead an ACC Championship charge. We’ve previously mentioned the Clemson game looming near, but don’t forget UNC. The matchup with their rivals in Chapel Hill is a dangerous fixture, with Tar Heels quarterback Drake Maye looking like a name to watch for the future.
One Loss Hopefuls
Oregon
Oregon potentially gave us a glimpse of what a 12 Team College Football playoff fixture might look like on the opening day fixture against an impressive Georgia. They have however come back strongly with a defining home win against BYU. They’ll have to overcome the maddening streaky play of Bo Nix and will lean on their defense. Luckily linebackers Noah Sewell and Justin Flowe have started to impose themselves. Potential top cornerback in next year’s draft Christian Gonzalez is also turning heads. The back-to-back games against Utah and firstly Washington (currently unbeaten) could decide the Pac-12. Both fixtures are however at home.
Utah
Utah began the season ranked fifth but couldn’t get over the line against a surprisingly resurgent Florida team. Their tough physical brand of football saw them finish last season as one of the form teams. They pushed Ohio State all the way in the Rose Bowl despite some crippling injuries in the secondary.
Cam Rising has two excellent tight ends in Dalton Kincaid and Brant Kuithe who’ll cause matchup problems to anyone they face. Apart from the USC and Oregon matchups which have been mentioned, UCLA away on 8th October may be one to keep an eye on.
As with Oregon above it always feels difficult to trust any Pac-12 team to not lose against a lowly rival.
Texas
Could this be the year? Are Texas back? A narrow and controversial loss to Alabama has dented their hopes but not their confidence. The quicker they can get Quinn Ewers taking snaps in the backfield alongside possible Heisman Trophy winner and clear–cut number one running-back Bijan Robinson, the better.
Both Oklahoma teams are away fixtures, and an intra-state game versus Baylor provides a stern test. There’s a reason three Big 12 teams are on this list. Baylor can feel aggrieved for being ignored but it’s wide open.
Final Thoughts
College Football continues to thrill and excite in individual games but something needed to change in the existing CFP structure. As I muse over fourth spot, the announcements have been made that the CFP will expand. Make sure you catch our upcoming college football roundtable as we give our opinions on a divisive topic.
