During the 2019 college football season, Joseph Lee Burrow (Kings are addressed by their full name) made history by throwing for 60 touchdown passes during the LSU Tiger’s record breaking season. This broke the record previously set by the late Hawaii signal caller Colt Brennan in 2007 with 58. Naturally when Burrow passed him, many assumed the record would last for another 10+ years…enter Bailey Zappe.
While Burrow was setting records by destroying the competition at the FBS level, Bailey was grinding it out at Houston Baptist, an FCS program. He spent three years commanding the Huskies’ offense, struggling as a freshman but coming into his own as he developed. At the end of the 2020 season, Zappe elected to enter the transfer portal. He followed his offensive coordinator Zach Kittley to Western Kentucky, and was named the starter in the spring.
Zappe turned heads quickly. He finished his first FBS start with 424 yards and seven touchdowns in a 59-21 win over UT Martin. The Hilltoppers would lose the next four games, but Zappe would still impress. He put up an astonishing 1,811 yards and 11 touchdowns across the four game skid. Zappe then went on to lead his team to victory in their next seven games. The team clawed their way to the C-USA championship game, where they lost a hard-fought battle against the surging UTSA Roadrunners.
Two weeks later, Zappe would throw his 61st touchdown to Mitchel Tinsley in a win against Appalachian State in the Boca Raton bowl. With that pass, Zappe broke Burrow’s 2019 record in his first season in the FBS. Yet despite all of this, there is still a lack of buzz around him in draft circles.
One of the common concerns raised with Zappe (outside of level of competition) is that he played in an Air Raid offense. It’s understandable. The Air Raid system is notorious for inflating a quarterback’s numbers. This is because of both the way it attacks the field and the sheer volume of passing plays. Zappe only threw the ball under 40 times a game ONCE while at WKU. ONCE. So the inflated numbers can certainly be an issue. This is especially true after Air Raid guys like Anthony Gordan and Luke Falk haven’t really panned out at the pro level. Gardner Minshew is pretty decent though. Oh, and Patrick Mahomes.
Where does that leave Zappe though? Where does he differ from other Air Raid guys who just haven’t put it together at the next level?
For a start, his accuracy is another level. Zappe averaged a 69.3% completion percentage, which is on the higher side for Air Raid guys. This was despite working with what can only be described as mediocre receivers at WKU. Zappe would regularly throw his guys open and hit NFL level throws while making coaches question how WKU managed to land someone with this level of talent.
This does beg a question though. Can Zappe do this against not just a higher level of competition, but the highest level in the NFL? It is certainly possible. Patrick Mahomes is the best example of scheme fits benefitting a quarterback who is given time to learn and grow. Andy Reid expertly crafted an offense to play to Mahome’s strengths, whilst minimising and masking his weaknesses. The chances of Zappe landing with an Andy Reid type coach is very very slim, but a guy like Matt Rhule or Frank Reich could really unlock his potential if they’re willing to be patient and let Zappe hold a clipboard for a while. The NFL is a very different game but there are a select few coaches who really know how to use a quarterback properly or at least give them the best chance of success.
So where will Zappe land? Where will he have the best chance of success, and is he a legit NFL starter?
