This week will mark the halfway point of the XFL and so far it appears to have been a real success. The rule changes have been a breath of fresh air and there have been plenty of intriguing developments around the league. Week 5 looks set to be no different, with a host of exciting games to come this weekend. Here are my picks and predictions.
Seattle Dragons at Houston Roughnecks
Saturday, 2pm ET
Point spread: Roughnecks -12.5
Over/Under: 46
Houston remain the XFL’s only unbeaten team after an impressive Week 4 performance against Dallas, which saw their defense force five turnovers in the 27-20 win. Their offense has been electric all season, scoring a league-high 16 touchdowns, with P.J. Walker leading the league in both yards and touchdowns.
In contrast, Seattle sit bottom of their conference with a 1-3 record and have struggled on offense all season. I can’t see Seattle going to Houston and coming away with a win this weekend, but I would definitely be taking them against the spread here. They looked like a different team when B.J. Daniels came in at quarterback last week at halftime, outscoring a strong St. Louis side in the second half.
Houston’s last three wins have all been one-score games and whilst I am confident they will get the win, I just can’t see them covering the spread here. Their defense is a problem, having allowed 11 touchdowns this season, the second most in the XFL, and this has been masked by the 13 turnovers they have forced. I’m expecting this to be a high-scoring, close game with the Roughnecks edging the win but failing to cover. Houston’s games have averaged a total of 53.5 points per game so I’m pretty confident taking the Over on this one.
Picks: Dragons +12.5, Over
New York Guardians at Dallas Renegades
Saturday, 7pm ET
Point spread: Renegades -7
Over/Under: 37
With Landry Jones out after suffering a knee injury last week it will be down to Philip Nelson to secure a win for the Renegades in Week 5. I’m taking Dallas here and I think they should cover the spread with ease.
They are great on both sides of the ball but have suffered so far this season from erratic quarterback play from Landry Jones, who has thrown seven picks in three games. With Nelson under center I would expect Dallas to finally lean more on their running game which has been unstoppable so far this season, with Cameron Artis-Payne averaging 5.3 yards per carry.
New York will be confident after securing a win last week against the Wildcats but it was a scrappy victory, with the team averaging only 2.7 yards per play. Luis Perez looks to have secured the starting quarterback role for now but the team has managed just five touchdowns all season and I can’t see them keeping up with Dallas, even with the injury to Landry Jones. Given the quarterback situation with both teams I’m taking the Under here too.
Picks: Renegades -7, Under
St. Louis BattleHawks at DC Defenders
Sunday, 3pm ET
Point spread: BattleHawks -5
Over/Under: 39
I can’t quite work out what the Defenders have done to deserve such a favourable spread here. The BattleHawks are clearly one of the best teams in the XFL, whilst DC have scored just nine points in their last two games and managed one touchdown in their last 22 possessions. They were shutout in Week 4 against a previously winless Tampa Bay side, managing just 107 yards of total offense all game.
There are huge question marks around Cardale Jones and whether or not he will remain the team’s starter after he has fallen off a cliff since Week 2. Their defense that was praised early in the season has allowed 64 points in the last two games and they have just cut one of the team’s stars, safety Matt Elam.
St. Louis have perhaps been outshined by the Roughnecks so far this season but they are having a really strong campaign. Their defense has allowed a league-best seven touchdowns, whilst their offense has been brilliant in both passing and running the ball. DC are unbeaten at home this season but it would take a real collapse from the BattleHawks for them to come away with anything here. With the league’s best defense coming up against arguably the worst offense in the XFL right now, this is a game where I would take the Under.
Picks: BattleHawks -5, Under
Tampa Bay Vipers at Los Angeles Wildcats
Sunday, 9pm ET
Point spread: Wildcats -2.5
Over/Under: 40.5
Of all of the Week 5 games, this is the one I had most trouble picking. Tampa Bay were impressive in their win against DC but I would be wary of reading too much into that given the issues the Defenders are having right now. The Wildcats weren’t great in their surprise loss last week but they should probably have won that game.
In a situation like this I am inclined to pick the team with the best quarterback and the best offense and that is the Wildcats. Taylor Cornelius looked good in Tampa Bay’s win last week but I need to see more from him to take them in a situation like this.
The Wildcats have scored the second most touchdowns in the XFL, whilst the Vipers have scored the second least. Tampa Bay are winless on the road and teams who have travelled cross-country are 0-4 this season. Both teams have been very up and down this season but the above gives me enough confidence to take LA here. Both of the Wildcats’ home games have been high-scoring affairs and I’m taking the Over too.
Picks: Wildcats -2.5, Over
