There are some interesting matchups here in Week 3. The two unbeaten teams both face teams that have started 0-2 and both look likely to continue their run. Can Landry Jones improve on his underwhelming Week 2 debut and what will happen with New York after the Matt McGloin debacle last week? Here are my picks for the Week 3 games.
Houston Roughnecks at Tampa Bay Vipers
Saturday, 2pm ET
Point spread: Roughnecks -6
Over/Under: 45.5
If you are going to bet on one game this weekend make it this one. The Roughnecks come into Week 3 on the back of two convincing wins, with some excellent play from their quarterback P.J. Walker. They have scored nine touchdowns on the season, the most in the XFL. Compare this to the Vipers who have scored a single touchdown across their two games and not scored a single offensive touchdown all season.
It isn’t clear whether the Vipers starting quarterback Aaron Murray will be back after missing Week 2 with an injury, but neither he nor his two replacements in their loss to Seattle have impressed so far. Houston look to be a much better opponent than either of the teams Tampa have faced so far this season and they should easily cover the spread.
I would err on the side of caution in betting the over on this one. Tampa Bay have struggled putting up points so far but have only allowed three touchdowns in their first two games. Despite Houston averaging a league-high 27.5 points per game, I don’t see Tampa Bay doing enough on offense to take this over the total.
Picks: Roughnecks -6, Under 45.5
Dallas Renegades at Seattle Dragons
Saturday, 5pm ET
Point spread: Dallas -5
Over/Under: 43.5
Both teams come into the game on the back of wins in Week 2 but neither were convincing. Seattle had problems at quarterback, with Brandon Silvers putting up just 91 yards passing. Aside from a 68 yard completion to Keenan Reynolds that left him with only 23 yards all game.
Landry Jones also had his issues in his debut against the Wildcats. Despite putting up 305 yards he threw for just one touchdown and two picks and wasn’t as impressive as many had thought he would be. Their victory came down to their running game and a defense that forced two turnovers inside their own redzone.
As a result I would expect this game to come down to which team can run the ball more effectively. Seattle have allowed just 3.5 yards per attempt against the run this season and their chance of beating the spread will depend on their success at stopping Cameron Artis-Payne, who averaged 7.1 yards per carry in Week 2. I’m anticipating a close game with Dallas narrowly covering the spread. Given that both teams have stuttered on offense so far and failed to beat the over in their combined four games, I would take the under here too.
Picks: Dallas -5, Under 43.5
New York Guardians at St. Louis BattleHawks
Sunday, 3pm ET
Point spread: BattleHawks -10
Over/Under: 40.5
New York are probably the most difficult team to figure out. After blowing out the worst team in the XFL in Week 1, they collapsed in a shutout against arguably the league’s best team in the Defenders last week. Given the drama surrounding Matt McGloin’s sideline meltdown it isn’t yet clear who will be under center for the Guardians in Week 3, but they come up against a BattleHawks team that have impressed across their opening two games.
Jordan Ta’amu has been impressive dual threat quarterback for St. Louis, adding 109 rushing yards and a touchdown to his 493 passing yards and four touchdowns in their first two games. The BattleHawks run the ball more than any other team in the league which could cause problems against a New York side that has shown their vulnerability against the ground game in the past two games.
I think the BattleHawks will win here but I would be wary of picking them as double digit favourites. The Guardians were poor in Week 2 and I think this spread is something of an overreaction to last week’s performance. I’d be far more comfortable putting my money on the over this week. New York can only improve offensively and I would expect the BattleHawks to put up points in their first home game of the season.
Picks: New York +10, Over 40.5
DC Defenders at Los Angeles Wildcats
Sunday, 6pm ET
Point spread: Defenders -8
Over/Under: 44.0
DC are arguably the league’s most well-rounded side and are one of two teams to be unbeaten coming into Week 3. They are ranked second in the league in points scored and their quarterback Cardale Jones leads the league with 511 passing yards. On the other side of the ball they have allowed only 19 points and 447 yards on defense across their opening two games.
In contrast the Wildcats have lost their opening two games and have conceded a league-high eight touchdowns. On offense they haven’t been as poor as their record suggests and it is worth bearing in mind that their 25-18 loss against Dallas could have been a very different story without their two redzone turnovers. They also have Nelson Spruce, who leads the league with 192 receiving yards.
Nevertheless, I don’t think that they will be able to overcome a strong DC defense and would expect the Defenders to cover the spread here. I can see this being the highest scoring game of the weekend too, with both teams averaging over 23 points per game so far. You would expect offenses to improve too as they get accustomed to their systems, so taking the over at 44.0 seems like a relatively safe bet.
Picks: Defenders -8, Over 44.0
