Earlier today Mel Kiper published his 2021 Mock Draft 2.0. For the first time ever he included trades and there are certainly some interesting projected moves. Here are three of the best and worst moves from Kiper’s latest mock. You can read Kiper’s full list of first round projections here.
The Best
Atlanta Falcons trade up for Zach Wilson
I absolutely love this move for the Falcons. Whilst I think the Jets would be mistaken in trading down, Atlanta can take full advantage and get their quarterback of the future. Matt Ryan has been a great player for the franchise since he was drafted back in 2008, but he will soon turn 36 and the team need to start planning ahead.
Wilson is coming off a fantastic 2020 season that saw him come from nowhere to rival Trevor Lawrence as QB1. He has the tools you want in a modern NFL quarterback, with elite accuracy, arm talent, and the ability to extend plays with his legs. Going to Atlanta would also give him a year to sit and develop behind Ryan, before taking on the starting role in 2022.
New York Jets get Kwity Paye at No. 23
Whilst I wasn’t a fan of the Jets trading down from No. 2, they did a good job with their second pick in the first round. They have a handful of needs across their roster, and one of the biggest is at edge rusher. Tarell Basham and Jordan Jenkins combined for just 63 pressures and eight sacks in 2020. A player like Paye would provide immediate impact and elevate their defensive line substantially.
Paye is the top edge rusher on my 2021 Big Board, and ranks as the No. 11 overall player. He offers the ideal combination of size and athleticism, running a sub-4.6 40 at 6’4″ and 277 lbs. Whilst he is still developing the nuances of his position, he has been productive. Paye generated an impressive 22 pressures on just 138 pass rushing snaps in 2020.
The 49ers trade up to No. 7 for Justin Fields
I think this is a great move for both teams. Kiper has the 49ers trading up with the Lions, with Detroit receiving the No. 12 pick, the 49ers’ second rounder, and a future 2022 pick. San Francisco snag their quarterback of the future, whilst the Lions continue to build up their draft capital ready for their rebuild. Their move for Micah Parsons at No. 12 is also a great pick.
Fields is an excellent prospect who has the potential to take this team back into Super Bowl contention. Whilst he does have some issues with his processing speed, he has elite arm talent and accuracy, ranking second in the FBS in adjusted completion percentage. He offers an added dimension as a runner, something that would be a great fit in Kyle Shanahan’s offense.
The Worst
Carolina Panthers select Mac Jones at No. 8
This was easily the most surprising pick in Kiper’s mock and probably the worst of the bunch. The top three quarterbacks were all off the board at this point, leaving the Panthers with a choice of Trey Lance or Mac Jones. Whilst Lance is almost universally regarded as a top ten pick, Jones is often mocked outside the first round. Even if the Panthers like Jones, this seems incredibly rich for a player with limited tools.
Jones is coming off a great season at Alabama and offers elite accuracy. The problem is, he doesn’t offer much else. He has limited mobility and is a pure pocket passer. His arm strength is sufficient but not exactly elite. Whilst he is arguably the more pro-ready prospect right now, he doesn’t offer anywhere near the upside that a player like Lance does.
Green Bay Packers select edge rusher Joe Tryon at No. 29
This pick really doesn’t make much sense. With Kevin King hitting free agency, the Packers are looking incredibly thin at cornerback. They could also do with some help at linebacker, offensive tackle, and maybe even wide receiver. Edge does not appear to be a major need whatsoever. Whilst Preston Smith is likely to be a cap casualty, the Packers still have Za’Darius Smith and Rashan Gary, who showed real promise in his second season. They may want to add depth, but there are far more important areas to attack at this spot.
Tryon is a super athletic player, but his production hasn’t ever matched his physical traits. He opted out of the 2020 season, but his form in 2019 wasn’t first round quality. His 71.9 PFF pass rushing grade ranked 131st amongst eligible edge rushers in 2019. He is currently ranked 64th on my 2021 Big Board.
New York Jets trade back for Kyle Pitts at No. 4
This is not a bad pick because of who the Jets select. Pitts is a transcendent talent at his position and arguably the best tight end prospect we’ve seen in recent years. His receiving ability would immediately elevate this roster and he is clearly one of the top players in the draft. The issue is the Jets passing up on a quarterback or even an offensive tackle.
Trading down from No. 2 doesn’t seem to make much sense, but sticking with Sam Darnold is even more perplexing. Whilst the situation around him hasn’t been ideal, he has never managed to put things together in New York. He certainly hasn’t shown enough for the Jets to pass up on two of college football’s best quarterbacks in Wilson and Fields.
