This is the second part of my prospect breakdown series, where I will be focusing on some of the best players in the 2021 NFL Draft. This week I’m looking at BYU quarterback Zach Wilson. A breakout 2020 season saw Wilson come from nowhere to challenge Trevor Lawrence at the top of draft boards. He offers the ideal mix of traits for a modern NFL quarterback and is the clear QB2 in this draft for me.
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Ball Placement
Wilson is easily one of the most accurate passers in the 2021 NFL Draft. He completed 72.7 per cent of his passes this season and his adjusted completion percentage of 80.3 ranked fifth in the FBS. He has one of the best deep balls in the class and BYU’s success this season was built on his field-stretching ability. Wilson was PFF’s highest graded receiver on 20+ yard throws, and his 59 per cent adjusted completion rate on these passes led the nation.
One of the knocks on Wilson is the level of competition he faced at BYU. That said, he had to make more tight window throws than other top quarterbacks in this class. His precise ball placement is a major strength to his game and the ability to make these difficult throws should translate well to the NFL. This play against Houston is a great example. This was actually the first play of the game and Wilson does a great job at identifying the favourable matchup and putting the ball where only his receiver can make the play.
Examples of Wilson’s excellent ball placement are littered throughout his 2020 tape and the touchdown pass below against LA Tech is another great example. What makes this throw so impressive is Wilson’s ability to throw with touch and thread the pass between the two defenders. Once again, he maximises his receiver’s chance of coming down with the ball, whilst also limiting any likelihood of a turnover.
Arm Talent
When it comes to pure arm talent, Wilson can rival even Trevor Lawrence. He is capable of making every type of throw and generates serious velocity without needing to set his feet. This play against Texas State is one of my favourite Zach Wilson highlights. He buys time by stepping out of the pocket and is able to make a near 50-yard cross-body throw across the field. Not many players could make this type of throw and Wilson is arguably the best in this class at making plays outside of structure.
Arm talent isn’t just about the deep ball though, and Wilson makes all of the kind of throws you will see on a Sunday. He is comfortable throwing to the far hash with velocity and he is a specialist when it comes to back shoulder throws. The ball below against Boise State combines the two and is a great example of why there is so much buzz around Wilson. There is little in the way of margin for error on this pass but Wilson executes the play perfectly.
Athleticism/Mobility
When it comes to mobility, Wilson is real threat on the ground. In 2020 he racked up 353 yards and ten touchdowns on his 66 attempts, averaging 5.3 per carry. BYU like to use him on designed running plays and he had a tonne of success with read options. This play against LA Tech shows what Wilson is capable of and defenses will have to account for him as a runner. He does a great job of making the corner miss and showcases genuine quickness to make it to the pylon.
Where most of Wilson’s mobility value will come in the NFL is in extending plays with his athleticism. He thrives outside the pocket and many of his best plays have come outside of structure. This was another great play from BYU’s game against LA Tech and it encapsulates Wilson as a player. Whilst he does roll out of the pocket a little early against a three man rush, it gives the route enough time to develop. Wilson does an excellent job of placing the ball on his receiver’s back shoulder and gets the ball 45 yards downfield without even planting his feet.
Pocket Presence
Having poise and pocket awareness are essential if college quarterbacks are to translate their success to the NFL. Wilson ticks these boxes and showcases good pocket presence. He was effective under pressure and earned a 91.4 PFF passing grade against the blitz in 2020. That said, Wilson was in an ideal scenario at BYU, playing behind one of college football’s best offensive lines. He was under pressure on just 21.6 per cent of his dropbacks this season and he will be tested a lot more in the NFL.
This play against UTSA is a good example of how Wilson deals with pressure. UTSA send a delayed blitz and BYU’s right tackle loses his one-on-one. Wilson senses the pressure and steps up outside the pocket. He keeps his eyes downfield and does an excellent job of hitting his receiver in stride. This is another good example of Wilson’s off platform ability too.
It is however worth noting that Wilson does have a tendency to roll out of clean pockets. Despite benefitting from one of the best offensive lines in college football, Wilson often extended plays unnecessarily with his legs when he could have stayed in the pocket and made the play. This isn’t a major issue but it is definitely something that teams want to clean up in the NFL. You can see it in the play below, where Wilson decides to scramble. Although the play results in a first down, he ignores the open receiver across the middle of the field and the potential one-on-one opportunity at the bottom.
Decision Making
When it comes to his decision making, Wilson tends to be pretty sensible. He reads the game well and knows how to avoid turnovers. This was evident this season as he threw just three interceptions. He doesn’t put the ball in harms way too often either, and he logged a turnover-worthy play rate of just 1.2 per cent in 2020, ranked third in the FBS.
That said, he does sometimes have issues when it comes to forcing throws. There were several reps on tape where Wilson would shun the easy yardage in favour of attempting the big play downfield. When this works it obviously looks great, but he will need to learn to take what the defense gives him on a more consistent basis. The play below against Texas State is a prime example. His slot receiver is wide open on an out route that would have given them a first down. Instead he goes for the one-on-one downfield which never really looks to be open.
Wilson has earned comparisons to Patrick Mahomes for his off-schedule playmaking ability, but like Mahomes at Texas Tech, this can on occasion border over into recklessness. One thing Wilson needs to work on is letting plays go and living for another down. This play against Boise State is a great example of that. Wilson does an excellent job of avoiding defenders and keeping the play alive, but there is really no need to force this pass. His receiver isn’t really open and the defender would have had a great chance at a pick if he had turned around.
Bottom Line
Wilson was one of the surprises of the 2020 season but really does look to be the real deal. Whilst some will have concerns about the level of competition he faced, he has all of the traits and tools to succeed. His combination of arm talent and mobility are exactly what you want in a modern quarterback and his ability to create outside of structure makes him one of the most exciting players in the draft to watch. His ball placement is already excellent and he’s capable of making every throw. He will need to clean up on his forced throws and tendency to bail on clean pockets, but he should be an excellent quarterback at the next level.
