It’s Week 8 of the 2022 season and there are plenty of great talking points. Who could be next big trade? Which rookies could shine down the stretch? And are there actually any good teams left in the NFC South?
Our team of Kevin Sayer, Tayyib Abu, and Jack Brentnall answer all of this and more in our Week 8 preview.
The trade deadline is on the horizon. With a number of big names having already made a move, who do you think could be next?
Kev: We discussed a trade we’d like to see (or at least what we thought individually made sense) on the Draft Punks podcast last week. My two choices were Brandin Cooks and Cam Jordan. Cooks has spent his entire career seemingly being traded and it yet again feels like a move Houston would be tempted to make. He’s 29 now and Nick Caserio is in no position to be hoarding veteran talent. A $26m cap hit next season could be shifted for a third rounder for a player that has been consistent in his production despite not having the premier talent throwing to him.
The Saints moving on from a player like Jordan is a bit more controversial as he’s been a cornerstone of their defensive line for so long. The NFC South is still winnable for the Saints, so they may feel reluctant when the postseason is still within reach and their depleted squad returns to full fitness. Jordan is a whopping $25m (plus change) against the cap next year and you wonder how long Mickey Loomis can keeping adding another year column on his Excel spreadsheet.
Trading would save $13m and the buyer would not only get a proven pocket pusher but one of the best run defenders around. Using PFF run defense grades, Jordan has been in the top 15 in the NFL in all but one year since 2014. He finished 16th in the one year where he missed out. The question is whether he’d want to chase a ring or retire in black and gold.
Tayyib: If the Denver Broncos seriously consider trading Bradley Chubb, may they consider trading Jerry Jeudy? Jeudy is an electric talent that could turbocharge an offense. Per Field Yates, the Dallas Cowboys are in a healthy cap situation. Could Jerry Jones press the button and acquire Jeudy and pair him with Michael Gallup and CeeDee Lamb? The Cowboys’ pass offense toiled against a spirited Detroit Lions defense, and adding one more weapon may ignite the attack. In a year where the NFC lacks depth, Jeudy could be a big piece for Dallas come January.
Jack: This might be a little left-field, but for me it is Buccaneers cornerback Sean Murphy-Bunting. He was a key part of their Super Bowl team, playing over 1,000 snaps on their way to the Lombardi Trophy. Injuries limited him last season, but he was still part of a very talented young secondary when he was healthy. That doesn’t seem to be the case anymore.
Through seven weeks, Murphy-Bunting has played just 42 snaps. He has only made it onto the field for two games. As things stand he is being out-snapped by rookie fifth rounder Zyon McCollum. With Murphy-Bunting in the last year of his rookie deal, this could be a cheap acquisition for a team in need of a plug-and-play starter in their secondary.
We’ve already seen a number of rookies make a big splash in 2022. Is there a particular rookie who may have started slow, but who you think could have a breakout second half of the season?
Kev: Entering the draft I had Kayvon Thibodeaux as my No. 1 edge player. I’m a big believer in the talent and thought the landing spot in New York was perfect for him. He also will form a nice duo with Azeez Ojulari when he eventually comes off IR. The former Oregon Duck has started slowly, but there’s been flashes in the last couple of weeks, highlighted by the game-ending strip sack versus the Ravens. When Joe Schoen ‘ran up the card’ for him they hoped he would be the player to stand out when the lights are brightest and in those big key moments.
Thibodeaux will naturally be compared to Aidan Hutchinson as they were the standout players at their position. On a pressure rate per game, they’re not far off each other. What we need to see from Thibodeaux is turning pressures into sacks and finishing consistently. This is something that Hutchinson has shown the ability to do already at this level. Whilst the G-men have surprised us all this season, I’m betting on the natural talents of No. 5 on the Giants defensive line to break out in the coming weeks.
Tayyib: I am going to with the obvious answer and choose Kenny Pickett. I firmly believe that the Pittsburgh Steelers wanted to redshirt Pickett this season. But, with Mitchell Trubisky’s travails, Mike Tomlin had no choice. Pickett has endured a mixed start to life as a starting quarterback. He has thrown two touchdowns to seven interceptions, and has a QBR of 41.1. Now Pickett is fighting with one hand tied behind his back. The Steelers’ offense is atrocious. They are 28th in EPA per play. The skill corps lacks a game-changer; Najee Harris is last in yards-per-carry, and the playcalling and design are awfully predictable.
Those are all mitigating factors for Pickett, but this is the NFL, and time is on no one’s side. The rookie needs to use his collegiate experience and become the leader of this offense. I am not asking Pickett to become Josh Allen, but even in dire situations, quarterbacks can show something. Can he become a better pre-snap processor? Can he audible in and out of the correct play? Sean Payton demanded his quarterbacks to be the on-field coach. That is what Pickett needs to become. If he can develop his quarterbacking skills, he’ll give himself a chance at survival.
Jack: Somehow I’m only focusing on the Bucs so far, but my pick for this would be their running back Rachaad White. I was a big fan of White coming out of college and had him as my RB4 in that class. So far this season his action has been pretty limited. His box score numbers are also admittedly more than a little underwhelming as he has averaged 2.7 yards per carry.
Dig a little deeper though and there’s reason for encouragement. For starters, he is stuck behind Leonard Fournette on the depth chart. Fournette has been nothing short of terrible this season, ranking 28th in RYOE. I also wrote recently about my new metric Forced Missed Tackles Over Expected (FMTOE) and the results weren’t great for Fournette.
White may be working behind a poor offensive line, but he has shown plenty of talent already. His versatility as a receiver and pass protector should also help him to see the field more as the season progresses. Don’t be at all surprised if he is their lead back by the end of the season.
The NFC South has been an interesting division for all the wrong reasons, namely the fact that all four teams have a losing record heading into Week 8. Which team do you think has the best chance of winning the division and why?
Kev: Let’s be honest the division is trash right now. You only have to look at the high level offensive DVOA statistics to see none of the teams have complete offenses. Carolina and New Orleans sit 32nd and 25th respectively in passing DVOA. Yet New Orleans are third when rushing the ball. That is the complete opposite of Tampa who sit 10th on the list when passing but 31st when rushing. The inconsistency week-to-week between these two in particular is maddening for the fanbase. Brady’s receivers have dropped 12 passes this season leaving his joint fifth in the NFL.
It’s not just the stone hands of his receivers causing frustration – we all saw his rant at the offensive line. Every quarterback falls off a cliff when their career ends in terms of arm strength and production and you wonder if we’re seeing the start of that with him.
Whilst the Panthers sell their stock, the Falcons are quietly putting together some element of consistency leaning on their strengths. The issue is the talent on the roster compared to the likes of what the Saints and the Buccaneers have. As I mentioned above the Saints need their injury woes to subside sooner rather than later. If that happens, I believe they can take the division.
Tayyib: As Kevin alluded to, this division is hideous. Nonetheless, I still think it’s Tampa’s division to lose. Yes, the Bucs’ offensive issues are incredibly concerning, but everyone else in the NFC South is worse. And with Brady’s fierce desire and legendary leadership, they should win the division. They have the Thursday night mini-bye this week and have a bye-week in three weeks. Brady and the Bucs used the bye in 2020-21 to arrest a slide. They can do it again.
Jack: Can we just forfeit the NFC South this season and give an extra playoff spot to the NFC East? That’s how I’m feeling right now. It also seems crazy to say that after lofty expectations surrounding both the Bucs and Saints this offseason, but that’s the world we find ourselves in. All four of the teams seem to have their fatal flaws – the Falcons have no defense, the Panthers and Saints have no answers at quarterback, and the Bucs’ offensive line issues are derailing everything.
Picking a favourite here isn’t easy, but I’m going to continue my theme of mentioning Tampa Bay and I’ll say the Bucs. Their issues on offense are a major worry and it looks like it might be beyond Brady’s abilities to fix it at this point. Their saving grace is that their defense is genuinely good, despite what last week’s loss might suggest. They rank fifth in yards per drive and sixth in points per drive this season. That could be enough for them to edge out the competition.
We’ve got some fascinating matchups on offer this weekend. Which games are you looking forward to the most and why?
Kev: It’s a homer pick for me. My Vikings come off their bye week and face a resurgent Cardinals team with their star receiver available and their tails up. The front office in “The Desert” seem to be following a Dolphin blueprint in surrounding their quarterback with speed all over the field after the acquisition of Robbie Anderson in a trade. DeAndre Hopkins had seemingly not missed a step in his return against the Saints and the Vikings secondary will have its hands full.
One area the Vikings have been vulnerable against on defense is any long speed over the top. Patrick Peterson does not possess the pace he once had and none of Cam Bynum, Cam Dantzler or Harrison Smith are blessed with sub 11 second 100m PB’s! I expect the Vikings to continue to play a frustrating soft coverage with some attention given to Kyler Murray potentially from rookie linebacker Brian Asamoah. One interesting stat here is the Cardinals go for it on fourth down more than any other team and that’s not going to change this weekend.
Flipping the field, the Vikings need to find much more from an offense that has laboured all too frequently. On rare occasions, on specific drives, in specific games they’ve looked unstoppable, but this is few and far between. They rank in the bottom third for yards per drive and average time per drive. In their flattering win over Miami, punter Ryan Wright was awarded the game ball as he was forced to punt 10 times. An offense that has Justin Jefferson, Adam Thielen, Dalvin Cook and complimentary pieces in K.J. Osborn and Irv Smith Jr should not be struggling like this.
If the Cardinals are to win, they’ve got history against them. They’ve played in Minnesota 10 times in the last 31 years…their record in that time?? 0-10
Tayyib: How about the 6-1 New York Giants against the 4-3 Seattle Seahawks? This is the only matchup featuring two teams with winning records. Both clubs are defying preseason predictions, although something must give in this matchup. The Giants are 6-0 in one-score games. Brian Daboll’s side is primed for high-leverage situations, such as the goal line stand against Jacksonville on Sunday. Add that with a power-packed run game, and the Giants have a winning formula. The G Men love their heavy personnel sets and trap-running game.
As for Seattle, they are flying due to an infusion of youth and the remarkable Geno Smith renaissance. Smith is a top ten quarterback in QBR, EPA per play, and Next Gen Passing Score. His stellar play, coupled with Kenneth Walker, Abe Lucas, Charles Cross, and Tariq Woolen’s performances, have provided the Seahawks a platform. With DK Metcalf hurt, expect Seattle to lean on the ground game with Walker. Walker was a star at MSU and looks like a star in the making. The Giants are 27th in run defense DVOA and will face this challenge from Seattle. Seattle is 17th in run defense DVOA and is beatable on the ground. It will be a physical, tough game between two teams playing confidently.
Jack: I promise I won’t mention the Bucs again here! For me, my attention on Sunday will be devoted to the Jets-Patriots game. There are so many reasons why you should be watching it too. With Breece Hall out, we will get our first glimpse of a re-modelled Jets backfield that includes new signing James Robinson. I’m interested to see how they fare against a New England front that has had its fair share of issues stopping the run.
There’s also Zach Wilson. The second-year quarterback has looked legitimately poor this season, despite a winning start for the Jets. With his biggest weapon gone, can he step up to the plate and deliver against a division rival, or will this be another terrible showing?
Then of course there is the ongoing quarterback controversy in New England. Mac Jones made his return in Week 7, but after a disappointing few drives that ended with an interception he was benched to a chorus of boos from the New England fans. Rookie fourth rounder Bailey Zappe came in to much fanfare, but also looked poor. Bill Belichick continues to refuse to name a starter and there’s no doubt this thing will rumble on.
Which player matchup are you looking forward to watching in Week 8?
Kev: I better put my money where my mouth is. Kayvon Thibodeaux lining up against Seattle’s rookie tackles Charles Cross and Abraham Lucas. Thibodeaux and Lucas have met before, back in 2020 and 2021. No sacks were given up by Lucas in either game. Lucas is a powerhouse of a tackle and handled everything Thibodeaux gave him, albeit at times with help. It will be interesting to see these old foes against each other again.
As an aside, imagine being Seattle and being desperate for anything at offensive tackle. They come out of the draft with hopes of an answer at one of these positions. Instead they seemingly get their two bookends for the foreseeable future. Outstanding stuff by the front office and scouting staff.
Tayyib: Nick Bosa vs. Alaric Johnson could decide the game between the Rams and the 49ers. Matthew Stafford does not want to feel pressure in the pocket, but Bosa could ruin that plan if he dominates Johnson. Johnson will make his first career start on Sunday, and he will face a formidable opponent. The book on Stafford is simple; get pressure, and he will make mistakes. Johnson and Bosa’s matchup may be the most important of any in this NFC West derby.
Jack: I love a good WR/CB matchup and the best one on offer this weekend is Stefon Diggs against Jaire Alexander. I don’t expect the matchup between the Bills and Packers to be particularly close, but there should be plenty to watch out for when these two face off. Diggs has been predictably excellent this season, racking up 656 yards on 43 catches through his first six games. He has exceeded 100 yards in four of those.
Alexander hasn’t quite had the same start and, like the rest of the Packers defense, he has struggled to find consistency. He hasn’t allowed a tonne of yardage in coverage though, giving up just 31.8 yards per game. Josh Allen and the Bills offense will be by far his biggest test of the season. If the Packers are to have any chance to pull off the upset, they will need players like Alexander to step up against top competition.