It’s Week 8 and it seems to be the weekend of close games. 11 of the spreads on offer are within just four points and in seven games it is two points or less. Without any further ado, here are my picks against the spread for all 15 games.
Baltimore Ravens at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+1)
Baltimore’s inability to hold a lead has crippled their record this season. All three of their losses this season have come in games where they led late into the second half. Their defense does finally seem to be improving though. The same can’t be said for the Bucs, who seem to lack competence anywhere you look. Their run game is non-existent, whilst their normally reliable passing attack has regressed hugely. Add in an underperforming defense and it is difficult to see them topping Baltimore.
Pick: Ravens -1
Denver Broncos at Jacksonville Jaguars (+2.5)
The Broncos couldn’t be more different on either side of the ball. Their offense ranks all the way down at 31st in drive success rate, whilst their defense ranks first. The Jaguars haven’t seen those kind of extremes – by contrast, their issue has been consistency. Entering Week 8 they rank dead last in Football Outsiders’ Variance metric. That makes it difficult to know exactly which Jaguars team we are going to get on a weekly basis. I think they win here, but Denver’s defense should keep things close.
Pick: Broncos +2.5
Arizona Cardinals at Minnesota Vikings (-3.5)
Minnesota’s 5-1 record certainly flatters them. In reality this feels like an above average team rather than a great one and the numbers bear that out. So far this season the Vikings rank 13th in EPA and 14th in offensive DVOA. The Cardinals also feel like a pretty average team, though they did look better with DeAndre Hopkins back last week. I feel like the Vikings should still win this one, but I think it could go right down to the wire.
Pick: Cardinals +3.5
Carolina Panthers at Atlanta Falcons (-4.5)
The Panthers surprised everyone with their win over the Bucs last weekend. Their offense has actually looked marginally better with PJ Walker under center and their defense continues to be solid despite the departure of defensive coordinator Phil Snow. Atlanta on the other hand might be irking fans by how sparingly they are using Kyle Pitts and Drake London, but their offense is getting the job done. The defense on the other hand, is not, ranking dead last in defensive DVOA and yards per drive.
Pick: Panthers +4.5
Chicago Bears at Dallas Cowboys (-9.5)
The Bears’ offense has been improving but this Cowboys defense presents an entirely new challenge. The big concern is the mismatch in the trenches. Chicago’s offensive line has a league high adjusted sack rate of 15.9% – for context, no other team is in double digits. Dallas’ defensive line leads the league in the same metric at 11.2%. With the Cowboys offense finally resurfacing with Dak Prescott back and the Bears coming off a short week, this should be a comfortable win for Dallas.
Pick: Cowboys -9.5
Las Vegas Raiders at New Orleans Saints (+1.5)
I don’t think enough people are talking about how good this Raiders offense has been this season. They sit third in yards and points per drive, behind only the Bills and Chiefs. A big part of that success has been Josh Jacobs and a revived running game, but the Saints’ struggles in the secondary should also present opportunities for Derek Carr. The Raiders admittedly have defensive problems of their own and the Saints have enough on offense to keep things close, regardless of who is at quarterback. I think this will be a real shootout with the Raiders narrowly covering the spread.
Pick: Raiders -1.5
Miami Dolphins at Detroit Lions (+3.5)
Miami’s offense continues to be incredibly explosive, ranking third in EPA per play this season. This is despite a revolving door at quarterback and what can only be described as a rusty return from Tua last week against the Steelers. The Lions meanwhile seem to be in the midst of a crisis. This defense has never been able to do anything, but in recent weeks the offense has seen a real downturn. I expect an improved showing from Tua and if that happens, I just can’t see how they keep pace with this Dolphins offense.
Pick: Dolphins -3.5
New England Patriots at New York Jets (+2.5)
These two divisional rivals like to win in the same way – suffocate opponents with a strong defense and run the ball down their throats when you’re on offense. They have both had success on that front, but the Jets will be more than a little concerned now that star running back Breece Hall is out injured. With no Hall they will have to fall back on Zach Wilson who has been nothing short of terrible at quarterback this season. Through seven weeks he sits 29th in big-time throw rate but fourth in turnover-worthy play rate. He hasn’t shown the ability to lead this team to a win here.
Pick: Patriots -2.5
Pittsburgh Steelers at Philadelphia Eagles (-10.5)
It has been a rough start to Kenny Pickett’s career in Pittsburgh. The rookie quarterback has thrown just two touchdowns to seven interceptions as the team is rooted to the foot of the AFC North. Things are a little rosier for the Eagles, who remain the NFL’s lone unbeaten team heading into Week 8. They should continue that run here without any real issues, though the Steelers have a habit of playing opponents close. I think they could just about beat the spread here.
Pick: Steelers +10.5
Tennessee Titans at Houston Texans (+2)
What difference a few weeks makes. After a rough start to the season, the Titans sit atop the AFC South once again at 4-2. The concern here will be whether or not Ryan Tannehill can play through an ankle injury, though I fully anticipate the Titans to stick with their running game. Derrick Henry has rushed for 200+ yards in each of his last three games against the Texans. Whilst he might not hit that mark for a fourth time, I still don’t see enough from the Texans to think they can keep pace.
Pick: Titans -2
New York Giants at Seattle Seahawks (-3)
Contrary to what many might be saying, this Giants offense hasn’t been fluky. Brian Daboll has got this unit playing far better than the sum of its parts and they sit seventh in EPA per play this season. Seattle haven’t been bad either and actually sit above the Giants in fifth. I feel like both teams are fairly evenly matched and expect this to be a close matchup. I think the Seahawks might edge it and give the Giants just their second loss of the season.
Pick: Seahawks -3
San Francisco 49ers at Los Angeles Rams (+2)
The scale of the 49ers defeat to the Chiefs last weekend has understandably made headlines, but there are two important facts to note. The first is that the 49ers were dealing with a number of defensive injuries in that game. The second is that the Chiefs are aliens and capable of blowing any team in the NFL out of the water on their day. The Rams on the other hand are not. Their offense continues to disappoint and ranks below the likes of Pittsburgh in terms of DVOA. Until I see more from Matt Stafford and co I’m going to bank on the 49ers.
Pick: 49ers -2
Washington Commanders at Indianapolis Colts (+4)
This had the potential to be a Carson Wentz revenge game, but he won’t be available to start for the Commanders. His replacement in Indy won’t starting either, as Matt Ryan has been ruled out for the season, with Sam Ehlinger taking his place. It is difficult to know what to expect from Ehlinger and whilst I’ve got faith in his surrounding talent, it isn’t enough for me to take them as four-point favourites. The Commanders found their rhythm in the second half against the Packers last week and I think they keep that up and beat the spread.
Pick: Commanders (+4)
Green Bay Packers at Buffalo Bills (-11)
We’ve reached full blown crisis time in Green Bay. Fans, players, and coaches are all apportioning the blame for what has been a horrendous start to the season. The last thing that this team needs right now is a trip to face perhaps the best team in the entire NFL. This game marks the first time in Aaron Rodgers’ career that he has been a double-digit underdog and it is fully deserved. The Packers haven’t shown anything to suggest that they can keep this remotely competitive.
Pick: Bills -11
Cincinnati Bengals at Cleveland Browns (+3)
The Bengals are back! Cincinnati might have had a slow start, but the offensive fireworks have returned. Since Week 4 they rank second in EPA per play behind only Kansas City. They have shifted to playing a tonne more shotgun formations and that seems to have been the answer to their problems. This is bad news for a Browns defense that has been noticeably poor through recent weeks. Cleveland is also the kind of Cover 3-heavy defense that Joe Burrow loves to shred. The Bengals should win and cover here.
Pick: Bengals -3