Week 5 is upon us! As always there are plenty of questions to ask. Who is the best 2-2 team? Who is the next potential big head coaching hire? What matchups should we watch this weekend? And what upsets do we think could be on the cards?
Our team of Kevin Sayer, Tayyib Abu, William Lane and Jack Brentnall answer all of this and more in our Week 4 preview.
Last season there were seven teams who entered Week 5 at 2-2. This season we’ve somehow got 15 of them! Which one do you feel most confident about looking ahead to the rest of the season?
Jack: For me it is the Baltimore Ravens and the reason is simple. If literally two plays had gone a different way, this team would be 4-0 and lauded as one of the very best in the NFL. The fact that they surrendered commanding leads to the Dolphins and Bills is quite rightly a concern, but they have shown that they are capable of hanging with the very best that the NFL has to offer.
They also boast the player that would be my early pick for MVP in Lamar Jackson, who helms an offense that ranks first in offensive DVOA through four games. Facing both the Bills and the Dolphins in the first four weeks is about as tough as it gets and they are the one 2-2 team that I feel are far, far better than their record would suggest.
Kev: With so many teams at the parity marker it’s difficult to know who to believe in at this point. I’m staying away from the Chargers as they are what their record suggests they are, namely a team suffering with injuries who, like last year, cannot stop the run. No one will want to hear this, but we need to talk about Kevin. Nooo not me, Stefanski. As mentioned, the Ravens’ slip ups have kept the AFC North fairly even with not much between any of the teams. The Browns are playing complementary football and leaning on their strengths till Deshaun Watson makes his appearance in Week 13 (allowing for bye weeks). They rank second in the NFL in rushing attempts per game, bottom third in passing attempts per game, yet top five in Yards per game.
I do feel they’re missing an explosive big play receiving threat on offense and the defense is yet to fire on all cylinders having lost two close games against the Jets and Falcons. It was obvious without star defensive ends Garrett and Clowney they lack the ability to get consistent pressure. The decision to not pay big money at defensive tackle in the offseason could be one they’ll rue, as the Falcons in particular were able to move the line at will. If they can hang in however, we may still see them take the division crown and whilst this may seem heinous you have to (grudgingly) give credit to the coaching staff for putting their players in the best position.
Tayyib: I still feel that the San Francisco 49ers are best positioned of the 2-2 teams. They have the track record of going to the Super Bowl in 2019-20 and last season’s NFC Championship Game. A large part of this current roster played significant roles in those particular seasons, and they are still there. Nick Bosa leads the NFL in pressures. Fred Warner is arguably the best coverage linebacker, while safety Talanoa Hufanga is playing like an unleashed wildman.
Offensively, Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk, and a returning George Kittle are a solid pass-catching trio. And for all of his critics, Jimmy Garoppolo is a proven quarterback with enough experience. Moreover, the roadmap to a divisional title is a lot clearer for the 49ers. The Arizona Cardinals are wildly underwhelming, the Seattle Seahawks are rebuilding, and the LA Rams have a truckload of issues to sort. The 49ers are a team you can trust.
William: The Baltimore Ravens, but I almost went with the Chargers. The Ravens are so close to being 4-0, if they had not collapsed to two of the league’s premier offenses. This can be quite concerning, but the fact of the matter is that they had the win in their grasp. Don’t expect this to happen again anymore this season
Lamar Jackson has been playing at an MVP calibre level this season, elevating this offense and the talent that surrounds him. This team is back in action, as they haven’t been at full power this season, dealing with an array of injuries to both sides. To be 2-2 and already have the Bills game out of the way is a good thing. It is still early.
We’ve hit that time of year when the media starts talking about hot seats. We all know which coaches are under pressure but who would you like to see get a head coaching job if one becomes available?
Jack: I’d love to see 49ers defensive coordinator DeMeco Ryans get a crack at a head coaching gig. He has been excellent ever since taking over from Robert Saleh in the summer of 2021. Last season the team ranked sixth in DVOA and through four games this season they are seventh. Some of their numbers are eye-popping: they have allowed 36 points through four games. They are also allowing 23.5 yards and 0.88 points per drive.
The fact he’s achieved this is commendable. That he has managed it in a pass-heavy era without a single star in the secondary is even more impressive. You can then add in all of the super creative stuff that he throws at opponents with his varied defensive fronts and you’ve got a lot to like. He feels like he’s more than deserving of a step up.
Kev: Everyone is always after the new exciting young coach. I can see the appeal. Young enthusiasm mixed with ambition allows a front office to build around a coaching staff in a five-to-ten-year plan. But why are previous head coaches who have had success so quickly dismissed from discussion?
Look at the job Dan Quinn has done at Dallas with their defense. In 2020 before Quinn arrived, Dallas were:
- 27th in touchdown receptions
- 24th in interceptions
- Bottom 3rd in sacks
- 25th in QB pressures
In 2021 they were:
- 13th in touchdown receptions
- 1st overall for interceptions
- Top half in sacks
- 1st in QB pressures
Quinn’s exotic use of his star player Micah Parsons have ensured no drop this season. They’re currently second in sacks and once again first in pressures. Imagine what Quinn could’ve done with a Falcons team who had just one “good to great” edge rusher! I know things soured in Atlanta following their Super Bowl appearance, but I still believe people deserve a second shot. Teams like Carolina who are looking for an identity could do a lot worse.
Tayyib: Seeing as Kev stole my Dan Quinn pick, I will go for Leslie Frazier. While some may feel this is a re-tread, having previous head coach experience is a massive plus in my eyes. We have seen hotshot young coordinators become head coaches and look overawed. Frazier has a lifetime of experience as a player, coordinator, and coach, and his outstanding leadership of the Bills’ defense warrants another opportunity.
William: Kellen Moore, OC for the Dallas Cowboys is my top pick. The coordinator is now 34, and would be perfect for any team looking for an offensive revamp. Even though he has had his ups and downs in the eyes of fans, I have remained a believer. Losing a starting quarterback is a huge loss for many teams, but hasn’t been a problem for Dallas. Moore has done a great job of scheming receivers open for Cooper Rush and elevating his play.
In 2022 the team stands just outside of the top half of DVOA, and they will look to get back to full force when quarterback Dak Prescott returns. With Prescott, Moore had this offense at sixth in DVOA just a year ago. Even without Cooper I see this offense returning to form very soon.
Week 5 doesn’t have any blockbuster matchups like Bills-Ravens, but there are some sneakily good matchups. Which game are you most excited to tune in to and why?
Jack: I know this won’t be on everyone’s list but for me it is Falcons-Buccaneers. For starters it is a division clash. There’s also the fact that whoever wins this game will take the lead in the NFC South. The Falcons were widely touted as one of the NFL’s worst teams coming into the season, but they’ve proved that they are no pushovers. Their two losses so far have come by a combined five points.
I know that fantasy players everywhere are decrying Kyle Pitts’ lack of production, but their offense is also legitimately exciting. They rank ninth in DVOA so far, which puts them ahead of teams like the Bills and Chargers. Things look a little different too, with Atlanta using play action on 48.2% of dropbacks, which is almost double the league average. Seeing how this plays out against one of the league’s elite defenses in Tampa Bay will be very interesting.
Kev: Primetime Monday matchup (so I’ll watch the next day I think!). The Bengals and Ravens are both 2-2 in a nicely poised AFC North. This could be a great game. The Bengals are starting to find their feet after two ugly losses. Joe Burrow was sacked 13 times in the first two games, but only three times against the Dolphins and the Jets. The receiving triplets Higgins, Chase and Boyd all averaged over 17 yards per catch against Miami.
The Ravens have squandered a 21 and 17 point lead in two separate games this season and as we mentioned last week have struggled to find any productivity in the running game. The return of JK Dobbins (and soon Ronnie Stanley) will provide hope for a balanced offense alleviating the expectation on Lamar Jackson to conjure up brilliance.
I can see the Bengals stealing a win here as I worry about Baltimore’s capability to cover the Cincinnati receivers. You can never write off Lamar though…
Tayyib: I like the look of the Rams and Cowboys. The Dallas defense leads the NFL in pressures, and this is not just down to Micah Parsons. DeMarcus Lawrence, Neville Gallimore, Dorance Armstrong, and Dante Fowler are all wreaking havoc. Dan Quinn’s use of overloaded fronts, aggressive formations, and ingenious matchups are allowing this Dallas defense to feast. Leighton Van Der Esch and polarising cornerback Trevon Diggs are playing well, and this unit is beginning to resemble the Doomsday Defense that Tom Landry built. They will fancy their chances against a Rams offense devoid of any confidence after a Monday night mauling in Santa Clara.
The Rams’ offense ranks 26th in DVOA and is one of the least explosive offenses in the NFL. The offensive line ranks 19th in pass block win rate. Take away screens and play-action that drops to 29th. Matthew Stafford is 34 with a surgically repaired back and hip. He cannot and does not want to face more pressure. Star free agent signing Allen Robinson is 144th in average yards-of-separation per Next Gen Stats, and the run game is non-existent. Sean McVay is lauded as an offensive genius; he needs to find answers for his wounded Super Bowl champions. These inspired Cowboys will roll into SoFi Stadium with a tidal wave of confidence and want to take the Rams’ scalp.
William: Raiders and Chiefs is the game that catches my eyes the most. The Raiders will look to get their season back on track, but it will not be easy against a team that routed them twice last season. Head coach Josh McDaniels has had his fair share of games against Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs, and will look to take his squad into Kansas City on Monday night and keep this division tight.
Look to see a lot more Josh Jacobs, who is coming off a monster week against the Denver Broncos. This offense has had its fair share of struggles this season, but the Derek Carr to Davante Adams connection will look to keep the ball rolling as well. They are also coming off of their most successful week playing together since college.
Which player matchup are you looking forward to watching in Week 5?
Jack: I’m breaking from convention here – for once I’m not going to go with a WR/CB matchup! Instead I’ll be keeping a close eye on how Rashan Gary fares against the Giants’ young tackle pairing of Andrew Thomas and Evan Neal. Gary is fast becoming one of the league’s brightest young pass rushing talents. Through four games he has already racked up five sacks. Right now he sits third in Defensive Player of the Year odds.
The Packers like to move Gary around, so we should see him face off against both Thomas and Neal. The two tackles have been pretty impressive so far this season for New York. Thomas in particular has been lights out, and has not given up a sack yet this season. Neal has understandably been a little more inconsistent, as you might expect for a rookie, but he has still shown plenty of promise. I think the outcome of this matchup could have a big impact on the game as a whole.
Kev: If Jack is breaking from tradition, I’ll do the same. CeeDee Lamb was one of my favourite players to come out of college in recent years. I’m a bit sketchy in my evaluation process when it comes to wide receivers, but his propensity to separate in short spaces and his exceptional body control at the catch point made him a can’t miss prospect in my eyes. He’s relishing the role of the big dog, the head honcho if you will at receiver. What’s more, he’s performing this role without starting quarterback Dak Prescott.
I’m looking forward to watching Jalen Ramsey attempting to stifle this new QB/ WR relationship. Ramsey is certainly a match for any receiver in the NFL and I’ll be interested to see if he travels with Lamb. The Cowboy’s receiver has seen a 60/40 split between outside and slot roles this season as Kellen Moore has followed the current NFL trend. Teams are now frequently moving their best player to nullify the “man-marking” or bracketing element defenses are employing. Ramsey has excelled in slot coverage as he has the physicality to support in the run game and the rare talent to cover two-way route concepts with field space on either side. Opposing quarterbacks have a passer rating of 56.3 when targeting Ramsey in the slot. This may come down to a game plan rather than a ‘mano a mano’ matchup, but it’s one to keep an eye on.
Tayyib: Drake London has really impressed me through four weeks. London and the Atlanta Falcons will pit the rookie wideout against Carlton Davis. The Bucs and their Todd Bowles-led defense like to be aggressive and will press London as much as possible. With Cordarrelle Patterson out, I am really interested in seeing how London fares against one of the league’s most intense cornerbacks.
William: For me it is Jets rookie cornerback Sauce Gardner versus Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle. Whoever he is lined up against on Sunday, prepare for a good one. The rookie flashes speed and has been locking down receivers all season. The fourth overall pick already has five passes defensed this season and will be looking for his first turnover in his young NFL career.
Who doesn’t love a spicy take! Are there any underdogs that you think could get a win this weekend?
Jack: Tayyib has already mentioned how much he is looking forward to Cowboys-Rams. I’m fully in agreement that this game has the potential for a big upset. Right now, the Rams are favoured by 5.5 points and I just don’t see why. I know they are the reigning Super Bowl champions, but this offense is going through all sorts of trouble. Once they get through the scripted plays at the start of the game they look noticeably disjointed.
Dallas on the other hand are 3-0 with Cooper Rush at quarterback. They also have an outstanding defense that will cause the Rams all sorts of problems. Earlier this season I wrote about the Rams’ offensive line woes, and I can see Parsons and co mixing things up this weekend. Even if the Cowboys don’t get the win this should be super close.
Kev: My takes on here in recent weeks have been appalling so I’m retiring from predicting upsets! So I’ll do a season prediction. Pat Mahomes (if fitness remains) will break Peyton Mannings touchdowns thrown in the regular season. The way he’s playing right now is incredible. Watching him create, run, alter arm angles, throw off platform and leave no area of the field off his radar is mind blowing. This team was meant to be worse offensively yet they seem to have grown new limbs which are unstoppable.
Mahomes’ individual highlight reel from the Bucs game is a player in pure attack mode at the top of his game. The interception was meaningless as his immediate attitude exudes confidence to know he’ll lead his team to another score next time he has the ball. I wondered what names would replace the old guard of Manning, Rivers, Brady, Rodgers, Roethlisberger and Brees. Well, I think the new wave we have with Mahomes at the forefront will entertain for years to come.
Tayyib: Can Brian Daboll’s ugly New York Giants upset the Green Bay Packers’ London debut? Probably not, but the Packers’ run defense is still suspect, and in Saquon Barkley, the Giants have a legitimate running option. The Giants are a poor team, but Daboll has got them playing like a team and to a plan. If the Giants can run all over the Packers, they might give themselves a chance of pulling off a seismic upset.
William: J-E-T-S! Zach Wilson was far from spectacular in his return, but when it mattered most the quarterback dialled in. In the final quarter in Sunday’s upset against the Steelers, Wilson threw for 128 yards and a touchdown. He did this while completing 10-12 passes and leading the game winning drive against Pittsburgh. With the Dolphins missing quarterback Tua Tagovailoa, this offense will look to Bridgewater to step in and beat the division rival New York Jets.