The 2022 season is slowly but surely starting to take shape. With the good teams separating themselves from the bad, we’re starting to see some big betting spreads this weekend – I’m looking at you Steelers-Bills. There is still plenty of value to be had though. With that being said, here are my picks against the spread for all 16 games.
2022 Against the spread record: 30-33-1
2022 Straight up record: 41-22-1
Indianapolis Colts at Denver Broncos (-3)
I suppose that this game is the Peyton Manning Bowl! Rather ironically, neither team seems to have the answer at quarterback these days. Russell Wilson still doesn’t look right in Denver and there are clearly differences between how he and Nathaniel Hackett want this offense to look. Matt Ryan and the Colts have been dire too. They rank 32nd in offensive DVOA and 30th in variance, which speaks to their erratic output through four games. I don’t trust either team so I’d lean towards the Colts to beat the spread.
Pick: Colts +3
New York Giants at Green Bay Packers (-8)
The Packers are finally set to appear in London after a long wait. Both teams here feel a little lucky to be 3-1. The Packers only just managed to scrape a win against a Patriots offense led by third-string quarterback Bailey Zappe and they weren’t wholly convincing against the Bucs in Week 3. The Giants on the other hand have got three wins, but none of them have come against good teams. I think that the Packers will get the win here, but the Giants can lean into a good run game and beat the spread.
Pick: Giants +8
Detroit Lions at New England Patriots (-3)
The Lions have been great to watch for the neutral this season. Their offense is firing on all cylinders and is averaging 35 points per game. The problem is that the defense is abysmal. Through four weeks, Detroit rank rock bottom at 32nd in defensive DVOA. Their inability to stop the run saw them lose a shootout to the Seahawks last week. I’d expect the Patriots to take a similar approach and look to pound the rock with Mac Jones still out. With all of that said, I draw the line at New England as favourites without their starting quarterback. The Lions should beat the spread and could get the win.
Pick: Lions +3
Los Angeles Chargers at Cleveland Browns (+2.5)
The one thing I’m fascinated to watch here is the running game. If you’re a Browns fan the worry will be their terrible run defense, which ranks 30th in DVOA. The big question is whether this Chargers team can take advantage of it, as they have been one of the worst teams in the NFL at moving the ball on the ground this year. I’m not sure how much I trust them to do that, but I do have faith in Justin Herbert and their passing attack. That should be enough for them to cover.
Pick: Chargers -2.5
Houston Texans at Jacksonville Jaguars (-7)
The bubble burst for the Jaguars last week against the Eagles, but I’m not overly worried by that result. After all, the Eagles might well be the best team in the NFL. I think it’s pretty safe to say that the Texans are on the other side of that completely. They are the only winless team left in the NFL and I can see this Jaguars defense feasting against Houston’s offensive line. On defense they have also been terrible against the run, and that’s bound to be bad news against a backfield duo of James Robinson and Travis Etienne. The Jaguars should cover this spread.
Pick: Jaguars -7
Atlanta Falcons at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-8.5)
This Falcons offense is going under the radar. I’ve been legitimately impressed by what they have put on tape this season and through four games they rank ninth in offensive DVOA. Their run game has been great, and it still looked good last week without Cordarrelle Patterson. This divisional matchup will be tough and with the exception of last week’s loss to the Chiefs, this has been a very good Bucs defense. I think the Bucs should win this one, but this Falcons team is no pushover.
Pick: Falcons +8
Pittsburgh Steelers at Buffalo Bills (-14)
This could be the start of something new in Pittsburgh, with Kenny Pickett set to make his first start. He might have thrown three picks in relief duty last week, but he was far better than the box score would suggest. It might be difficult to look good this week though. This Bills defense is excellent, ranking fourth in adjusted sack rate and second in adjusted line yards. That’s bad news for Pittsburgh. When you add in Buffalo’s dominant offense, it’s a bit of a no-hoper for Pittsburgh. 14 points is a huge spread though and I think their talent on defense sees them beat the spread.
Pick: Steelers +14
Miami Dolphins at New York Jets (+3)
This week we will see Teddy Bridgewater start for Miami after the storm surrounding the Tua concussion last week. Regardless of who is under center, I still see Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle causing a tonne of problems for a Jets defense that ranks 30th in EPA per dropback. Zach Wilson did lift this Jets team to an unexpected victory over Pittsburgh last week, but I still worry about him. He continues to look abysmal when blitzed, and if there’s one thing Miami’s defense do well it is sending the house at opposing quarterbacks.
Pick: Dolphins -3
Chicago Bears at Minnesota Vikings (-7)
It says something about the Bears this season that Fields throwing 22 passes for 174 yards was seen as them “opening up their passing game”. Almost a third of that came on one play to Darnell Mooney too. The Bears might be 2-2, but they still look dire on offense and don’t have the talent on defense to win them games. The Vikings were admittedly more than a little lucky to win last week though and are coming off a London game. This is one of those games where the Vikings should run away with it, but I just have a feeling that the Bears keep it closer than they have any real right to.
Pick: Bears +7
Tennessee Titans at Washington Commanders (+2.5)
We are four games into the season and I still can’t quite figure out the Titans. This is a team that is not only inconsistent between games, but also within them. They got the win last week against the Colts, but they looked poor in the second half, failing to score a single point. Washington on the other hand are a little easier to figure out insomuch as that their defense is a mess, and the offense is just as inefficient as you expected under Wentz. I’m not keen about taking either team here but the Titans should win and cover.
Pick: Titans -2.5
Seattle Seahawks at New Orleans Saints (-5.5)
It turns out that this Seahawks offense is perfectly capable of cooking without Russ! Through four weeks they improbably rank third in DVOA and Geno Smith is being talked about as having an outside shot at MVP. The worry here is that this is propped up by performances against bad defenses. When they have faced good ones in the Broncos and 49ers, they scored a combined 24 points. The Saints don’t have much to cheer about right now, but at least their defense is good. I think that gets them the win, but I feel like the Seahawks keep things close.
Pick: Seahawks +5.5
San Francisco 49ers at Carolina Panthers (+6.5)
It’s difficult to look at this game and not feel like Matt Rhule is coaching to keep his job. The Panthers have been putrid yet again this season. If anything the team is regressing under Rhule, ranking 21st, 27th, and 28th in DVOA in his three seasons with the team. The offense is dire and they can only win if their defense steps up. Rhule is 1-26 in games where there defense allows more than 17 points. I’d be laying good money on the 49ers in this one.
Pick: 49ers -6.5
Philadelphia Eagles and Arizona Cardinals (+5)
The Eagles enter Week 5 as the NFL’s last remaining unbeaten team. To be honest, it is difficult to find a weakness on this team right now. On offense they can win on the ground or through the air. Their defense is good up front, ranking second in adjusted sack rate, and is elite in coverage, leading the NFL in EPA per dropback. The Cardinals on the other hand are not good. They sit 29th in DVOA with an abysmal coverage unit and an offense that continues to be reliant on Kyler Murray creating magic outside of structure.
Pick: Eagles -5
Dallas Cowboys at Los Angeles Rams (-5.5)
It has been confirmed that Dak Prescott will miss this game, meaning that Cooper Rush will start for at least one more week. Rush has been pretty solid so far and has surprised everyone by being unbeaten in his three starts. The offense has been solid in that period, but it is the defense that has carried the team. That could be an issue for the Rams, who are really starting to worry me. They still look explosive out of the gate but drop from sixth in first quarter DVOA to 27th in the second half. I think the Cowboys can cause problems up front and cover this one.
Pick: Cowboys +5.5
Cincinnati Bengals at Baltimore Ravens (-3)
It feels somewhat strange that both of these teams enter this weekend at 2-2. If a couple of plays had gone differently the Ravens could easily be 4-0. They rank third in Football Outsiders’ Estimated Wins metric, behind only the Eagles and Bills. The Bengals have had a rough start to the season though it looks at the moment like things might be getting back on track. Through the last two weeks they rank second in the NFL in EPA per dropback. I think I’d struggle to pick a winner here, so I’d lean towards the Bengals to beat the spread.
Pick: Bengals +3
Las Vegas Raiders at Kansas City Chiefs (-7)
It has been really exciting to see the way the Chiefs’ offense has evolved this year. Whilst we all know them for their explosive passing attack, their ability to run the ball at will has been noticeable this season and has been a big contributor to their success. The Raiders haven’t had quite the same luck with their own offensive shift, which is clearly taking some time to gel. They have also had their fair share of problems on defense, which ranks 27th in points allowed per drive this season. I feel like this should be a fairly comfortable cover for the Chiefs.
Pick: Chiefs +7