It’s time for Week 13 and once again we have a handful of interesting questions to consider. Were the Panthers right to fire Frank Reich? Who will make the wildcard spots in the AFC? And what are the keys to victory in the Eagles-49ers matchup?
Our team of Kevin Sayer, William Lane, and Jack Brentnall are back to answer this and more.
The big news this week was the Panthers’ decision to fire Frank Reich after just 11 games. Do you think this was the right move?
Kev: What a mess! In a vacuum you can say the results on the field have not been good enough. The lack of development and (backwards) progress of Bryce Young are another reason. He’s changed from the free-flowing creative player he was at Alabama to someone who is scared to throw the ball. The offensive lacks identity and the mess around with play calling responsibility add up to why they are where they are. So in a blunt binary reply to the question – yes.
As we know it’s not that simple. David Tepper’s meddlesome ownership style is not working. Since his arrival the Panthers have won less games than every other team except the Jets. As an owner who is hands on and “signed off” on every roster move he must share the responsibility for this disaster.
Their evaluation of Bryce Young and how much he can elevate a roster was grossly overestimated. This is probably the reason they failed to fill their offense with anything to help him. College quarterbacks fail when they go to bad, mismanaged situations. Unfortunately this is shaping up to be another example of that.
William: In my honest opinion, this feels like a bit of a knee jerk reaction. It is a David Tepper problem in Carolina, not so much a Frank Reich problem. Honestly it feels as if Reich had a bit of a short leash on him, and I am not sure what pulling the plug halfway through the season does for your young quarterback. That said, there is part of me that does understand the move, purely based on the total lack of progress.
Bryce Young does not look like the same quarterback that we were all in love with this time last year. As Kev mentions, the offense lacks identity and the play calling was laughable at times. Much of these responsibilities fell on Reich, as did the development of the quarterback. But at the end of the day, a rotating door of coaching and staff just leads to first round talents flaming out.
We are seeing that situation play out in New England, and before that it was in Tennessee with Marcus Mariota. This could be the start of a very slippery slope, and things could get worse before they get any better. They have to nail this next hire or else this same cycle will repeat itself.
Jack: This is a tough one. It’s easy to see why they made this decision. Reich was brought in based on his history of crafting successful, high powered offenses. He was meant to be the guy that would get the best out of Bryce Young. Now, I don’t think anyone expected this team to compete from the off, but they have looked even worse than they did under the famously disastrous Matt Rhule, and this is with a No. 1 overall pick under center.
In that sense I can understand the firing. Whether it is going to help things is a different matter. As both Kev and William have mentioned, David Tepper is a famously meddlesome owner. That certainly doesn’t help. I also worry about general manager Scott Fitterer.
These problems are as much about roster construction as they are about coaching – just look at that receiving corps! With no first round pick in 2024 and a roster struggling on both sides of the ball it is tough to be any more optimistic about this team in the absence of Reich.
The AFC playoff race is shaping up to be a fascinating affair. If you had to predict the three teams that will end up in the wildcard spots, who are you going for?
Kev: If you look at the remaining games between all teams not leading their divisions, you can talk yourself into many scenarios. I said last week how I’d changed my mind about the Bills and that I do worry for them. They travel to the Chiefs after the bye and Miami in the final week. They also still have to host the Cowboys. They’re going to need something from two of these games and I do believe in Josh Allen’s ability to pull out miracles for this team.
I’m going to say that the form team of the AFC in the Broncos get in. They have two games against the Chargers who are heading in only one direction with a potential house sweep in order. Their efficient mistake-free football and remaining fixtures should see them grab a ticket to the dance.
I think it’s a step too far for Houston but the Colts stand a chance. Their remaining fixtures give them an edge but Gardner Minshew must take care of the football. What a job by new head coach Shane Steichen if they do get in! It could come down to a win and in the final Week 18 game against the Texans but the Jonathan Taylor injury has really come at a bad time.
I think the Steelers trail off and the final spot is between the Browns and Colts. The Browns offense is horrible, but that defense is up there as one of the best of the last decade. I’ll stamp my card with Bills, Broncos and Browns.
William: The AFC playoff race is as exciting as we all predicted, but with some unlikely names in the mix! If at the beginning of the season you told me that Buffalo would miss the playoffs, I may have had some questions. Yet here we are, and I am out on them. The three teams that I believe will fill the AFC wildcard spots are Pittsburgh, Denver, and Cleveland.
I am out on the Buffalo Bills because of the issues they have had on the field and the schedule they have coming up. Coming out of the bye, they face off against the Super Bowl favorite Kansas City, followed by a dominant Dallas team, and one more game against Miami. It is not a recipe I would like if I was a Buffalo fan.
I am going out on a limb here and saying that the Denver Broncos are getting hot. They have seemingly found their stride at just the right time and have a very winnable schedule. Games against New England, a susceptible Chargers team, and Las Vegas are ahead of them. I think that this team has just the right amount of weapons to make waves and get into the playoffs.
For the sake of keeping things short, I am just done betting against Mike Tomlin. The Steelers always find a way to make me look bad, so I would rather support them and be wrong about that. Meanwhile I think that Cleveland has enough of a cushion to fend off against a team like Buffalo or Indianapolis.
Jack: Picking three is tough but I’m taking the Steelers for one of them. For starters, Mike Tomlin always has this team over .500 and that looks set to continue again in 2023. It takes a brave man to bet against Pittsburgh, and that isn’t me! The defense is already excellent and the offense now seems to be improving just enough.
For the second spot I’ve got to take the Texans. CJ Stroud has looked like one of the very best quarterbacks in football this season. Houston might not have a complete roster, but it is rare that an elite quarterback misses out on the postseason.
It also looks like I am the only one taking the Bills here! Maybe it is stubbornness on my part, but I am still not ready to quit them. Their schedule is tough, but they are still a comfortably better team than the likes of Cleveland and Indianapolis. I feel like quality wins out in the end, and the Bills squeak in.
Eagles-49ers feels set to be the game of the week. What are you looking for in this matchup?
Kev: This NFC Championship game rematch is definitely a beauty. In last season’s game the 49ers managed to hold Jalen Hurts and the Eagles offense in check despite their own passing woes. The 49ers’ defensive line will be the key to success in stopping the Eagles on those third and fourth and short situations they are so efficient at.
Keeping on schedule seems an obvious thing to say, but I think the Eagles need to be relying on short yardage situations to move the ball rather than medium yardage passing situations. The 49ers will continue to attack the middle of the field offensively, and this is an area the Eagles defense has struggled to contain consistently. They rank inside the top three in yards after the catch this season, as coincidentally, do the 49ers.
One thing of note is time and time again this season when the Eagles need to make a play to win a game or ice it they have managed to do it. This game is a really tough one to call, but I’m going to say that the Eagles get a narrow win and keep the momentum rolling.
William: The top dawgs of the NFC are set to face off in what should be the best game all week. Ultimately it comes down to the 49ers defensive line keeping Hurts in check and not allowing him to beat you with his legs. Obviously he will find some success on the ground -you just can’t let him beat you like he did with Buffalo last week.
One thing that Philadelphia will need to prevent is San Francisco getting off to a hot start, because they aren’t a forgiving foe. Several times now we have seen this 49ers team take this huge lead before the half, and every time their opponents fail to catch up.
I am not saying that Philadelphia can’t be the ones to beat this, but we have seen them just barely overcome their slow starts against lesser opponents. As Kev mentions, Philadelphia seem to have this clutch gene. When the game is on the line they always find a way to pull through.
Jack: The big thing for me is whether the 49ers can keep the Eagles in check on the ground. I’ve got no doubt that they have what it takes to limit the Eagles through the air. The question is, as it has often been this season, about their run defense. When they have struggled it has often been against teams willing to sit back and run down their throats.
Ahead of Week 13 they sit 24th in EPA allowed per rush and 25th rushing success rate. If they play like that in this one it is game over. Philly obviously has one of the best running games in all of football and is perfectly happy to ride it if works. We saw them do just that against the Bills last week.
If San Francisco can keep things disciplined up front and maintain gap integrity then they may well stand a chance to topple an Eagles team that is rolling right now.
Are there any particular matchups, be it coaches, players, or teams, that you are excited about in Week 13?
Kev: We covered AFC playoff implications above and a game that sticks out is Denver heading south to Houston. Head-to-head could be crucial in the wildcard tiebreaker. Can the Broncos win seven on the spin against a resurgent Texans outfit?
Even after a three interception game against the Cardinals, C.J. Stroud still comes out and pushes the ball down the field attacking with confidence (a massive contrast between he and Young from our first discussion point). He’ll have an experienced and alert secondary staring him down this weekend spearheaded by the excellent Patrick Surtain.
I fully expect Houston to attack with freedom as they have nothing to lose this season. On the flip side despite it being Sean Payton’s first season in charge it feels a bigger, more crucial game for the Broncos. With Payton and Wilson as long standing NFL stalwarts there’s a feeling of having more to prove. I picked Denver above so I’ll go with them to win, but this is an under the radar big game.
William: I hope that I am not stealing this one from Jack, but I am intrigued by this Chiefs-Packers matchup! Green Bay pulled off a major upset against Detroit on Thanksgiving, and are going to come into this one well rested, like Kansas City. And honestly, I think they could put up a fight against this Chiefs team.
There are some injury concerns, but last Thursday we saw them overcome missing eight starters against Detroit. This mini-bye has helped some of them get healthy, but something to watch is that as of Wednesday, both AJ Dillon and Aaron Jones were missing from practice. But Jordan Love has been red hot these past two weeks, throwing for 590 yards and five touchdowns. Look for this to continue against a susceptible KC secondary.
Jack: William read my mind because I am also going with this Packers-Chiefs matchup. Specifically I want to keep an eye on Jordan Love. He has been genuinely impressive through recent weeks. Since coming out of the Week 6 bye, Love sits ninth in EPA+CPOE composite, a metric that measures the value of a play and how much the quarterback is responsible for that value.
That sandwiches him between Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes and ahead of the likes of Lamar Jackson and Justin Herbert. Love has also been good against the blitz this season. That is well worth noting ahead of a matchup against a Steve Spagnuolo defense. He has thrown for five touchdowns and no interceptions when blitzed this season. Can he keep up his good run of form against the Chiefs this weekend, or do things stop here?