It’s Thanksgiving and that means it is Week 12 in the NFL. As always, there is plenty to discuss. Which team is going to make a late surge and have an impact in the postseason? What is next for Zach Wilson and the Jets? And which teams could be gearing up for a blockbuster trade in the offseason?
Our regular trio of Kevin Sayer, Tayyib Abu, and Jack Brentnall are joined by Tom Clapham to answer all of this and more.
Every season we seem to come across a team that makes a late season push for the playoffs and ends up finding some postseason success. Who do you think that could be this season and why?
Kev: If you look at the AFC, the divisions are divided up between good teams and terrible teams. It’s difficult right now to see where one comes out of the trailing pack. The Browns are desperately trying to tread water until Deshaun Watson returns, yet their defense that ranks 31st in DVOA sums up their issues. In the NFC the Lions have quietly put together a three-game winning streak. With the eyes of many diverted after the initial focus and optimism of Hard Knocks they’ve finally turned the tide. The offense is rediscovering its early season form, scoring 31 points in each of their last two games.
They now find themselves second in the NFC North. If we look at remaining schedules of teams based on average DVOA per opponent Detroit sits eighth in the NFL. With three home games on the spin and a likely loss against Buffalo on Thanksgiving, they have two winnable home games against Jacksonville and Minnesota. Minnesota may be too far ahead and also have an easy run in, ranking fifth on the aforementioned list. That said, the seventh spot in the NFC could very likely be up for grabs for Detroit.
Tayyib: The San Francisco 49ers are set up for a significant end-of-season run. The Niners are 5-2 since the start of October and have the previous form for making a late-season charge. In the final two months of the 2021 season, San Francisco went 7-3 to book a wildcard spot. The Niners are currently riding a three-game win streak and have not allowed a point in the second half of their last three games. Per Football Outsiders, San Francisco boasts the best DVOA in the previous four weeks. With a collection of superstars on offense and a ferocious defense, the Niners are poised. They are one of three teams to rank in the top ten in offense and defense. San Francisco was 4-4 when they went on the bye week. Suddenly, they have hit red-hot form and can go all the way in the postseason.
Jack: I’m with Tayyib on this one. The 49ers look legit, and I think they have a real shot to make the most of a poor NFC. The arrival of Christian McCaffrey has been the catalyst the offense needed. Since Week 7 they rank fifth in EPA per play. From Weeks 1-6 they were 18th. They are capable of putting up points on anyone and can win through the air or on the ground. The defense is also incredible. So far this season they rank sixth in yards per drive and third in points per drive.
It’s becoming difficult to find a real flaw with this team. We have already seen that Kyle Shanahan is capable of taking this team far into the postseason. With perhaps their best defense since 2019 and arguably the best offense of his entire tenure, he might be able to go all the way in 2022.
Tom: I think this position is reserved for only one team and that is the Washington Commanders. They are picking up a little bit of steam as we come into the business end of the season. Coming off two straight wins, including taking out the previously unbeaten Philadelphia Eagles shows they are right in form. They are fairly average in terms of statistics, however the Heinicke-led Commanders are the most dangerous team in the NFC right now.
Crucially their fate is well within their own hands too. They currently sit outside of the playoffs, right on the bubble in eighth place. They are 2-1 in their division with it all to play for. Of their final six games, four are at home and three are divisional matchups. They currently sit one game back from the Cowboys and Giants in the NFC West and one game ahead of the Atlanta Falcons in the hunt for the wild card. The Commanders have their destiny in their own hands, with a chance for Heinicke to collect a few more pairs of colourful Jordans, we will see the Commanders playing in January.
With Zach Wilson benched in New York, what do you think the future holds for him? Who do you think will suit up under center in Week 1 of 2023?
Kev: I think I’d say I’m glad I’m not in charge! Joe Douglas deserves recognition for putting together a competitive roster, however Zach Wilson is his draft choice for the most important position in the NFL. We can only guess how much of what is happening within the Jets’ organisation is down to culture, coaching or Wilson. One thing is clear though, and that is that the majority of Wilson’s play on the pitch has been sub-standard. He’s been constantly guilty of trying to do too much, yet in Week 11 he couldn’t even achieve the basics. Throughout the whole game he ignored downfield reads and was frequently lazy on his throws. On three separate occasions he checked down to the flats without setting his feet. Instead he arrogantly side armed a throw which sailed over his receiver’s head barely 10 yards from him.
The post-game press conference is a PR disaster. As a QB when the team wins it’s “We”, and when you lose it’s ”Me”. All you have to do is go out in front of the reporters and regurgitate the same things we hear league-wide from a losing quarterback on a week-to-week basis, but Wilson’s ego wouldn’t allow him to do this. So, what should they do? I’m not sure you bury him after a game like this where New England also struggled to move the ball.
There does however need to be an honest conversation around what is expected from him and what is at stake. Mike White or Joe Flacco are not the answer, and this is a young roster who have long term aspirations to challenge year in and year out. If the locker room damage is able to be averted and there is doubt after this season then Douglas and his coaching staff have to make a decision. Don’t be stubbornly tied to a draft selection!
Tayyib: I would have benched Zach Wilson. Robert Saleh has made the right decision. Football might be the ultimate team game, and a locker room needs everyone pulling in the right direction. Wilson’s post-game comment created a schism in the Jets locker room. Battle-hardened veterans can forgive poor play. But a poor attitude? Forget about it. I still think Wilson can return as the starting quarterback this season. Mike White and Joe Flacco are not solutions to any problem. The question is, is Wilson willing to do the hard work on his character, and play to get his job back? I am not sure. As for who is the starting quarterback in 2023? Jimmy Garoppolo feels like the natural fit. However, I have a hunch he will stay in San Francisco. Therefore, could Trey Lance wind up in New Jersey? Stranger things have happened.
Jack: Whatever problems this creates in the long term, Saleh made the right call. Wilson’s play was a detriment to the team and his attitude was arguably even worse. With that said, it does raise plenty of questions about the future. Saleh was keen to stress that Wilson’s time in New York isn’t over. That might be true, but when have you seen a young quarterback benched like this, only to return shortly after? I certainly can’t think of it happening recently. Wilson’s play has been eerily reminiscent of Josh Rosen in Arizona, and we all know how that ended.
For the Jets, I think they will look for a veteran presence in the offseason. Jimmy Garoppolo is an impending free agent and already has a connection with the offensive coordinator. Aaron Rodgers may also be available, and he’s still well worth consideration. As for Wilson, it is tougher to say. The one potential landing spot that stands out to me is New Orleans. The Saints need a quarterback but lack the picks to get a rookie or the cap space to sign a veteran. The chance to get a former No. 2 overall pick on the cheap might be too good to pass up.
Tom: Officially out of Gotham, the statement is that Zach Wilson has been benched. This is absolutely the right decision. Kev is spot on in his assessment that Mike White and Joe Flacco are not the answer, whether that is long or short term. The problem is the Jets are competing. The schedule has a tough end to it too. They face the beatable Bears and Jaguars, but then face a resurgent Lions as well as the Vikings, Seahawks, Dolphins and Bills all away from home. They currently sit one game back in the division at 6-4, however going 2-5 to end the season would not be a shock. Saleh and Douglas are in an impossible position.
If they shut down the season now, then they will end up in the middle of the draft, with what ifs hanging over them. Following Wilson’s complete inability to take responsibility though, his career in New York might be over. It of course is not only the fault of the quarterback, but when you take the job, you know that the blame will be at your feet, unless you are lights out. Every other position is cut at will – if someone underperforms, they are gone. Quarterback should be no different. Unless something drastic changes, expect an offseason trade of Zach Attack and the rebuild restarting behind a veteran in NYC. I hear Jimmy G loves the big apple. For me, end his season, keep him healthy and trade him in the offseason.
There seem to be a number of teams that are a quarterback away from competing this season. With that in mind, can you see any of them making a splash trade in the offseason a la the Rams with Matthew Stafford? And who might they go for?
Kev: As I’ve had my Jets rant, I’ll stick with them. How about an offseason sweep for Derek Carr? His emotional press conference last weekend shows not all is well and casts doubt that everyone is pulling in the same direction. Carr will bring you at his best a borderline Top 10-15 quarterback. We’ve seen teams be competitive with this level of talent at the position, with the likes of Tennessee and San Francisco having recent postseason playoff runs.
Whilst Carr may not excite a demanding fan base, he’s consistently proven to be tough (playing with a stress fracture of his back) and capable of leading a franchise. His maturity would no doubt be a welcome addition. You can balk at his contract over the next two or three years, but as more and more quarterbacs sign their deals and the salary cap increase spikes more than expected, his deal will be easily affordable.
Tayyib: I am thinking along the same lines as Kevin, and I think it might be time for Derek Carr to move on from the Raiders. It feels eerily similar to Matthew Stafford’s time in Detroit; Carr has given everything to that organization with little reward. The Raiders also need picks after the Davante Adams trade, so there could be a chance for a team wanting a quarterback. The Giants could be in a position to swing for a trade. Their record will surely put them out of range for a top quarterback prospect in the draft, and with a defense ready to win, New York might take the plunge. Carr is good enough to win games with a solid team around him.
Jack: I think Washington fit this category perfectly. You only have to look at the roster and see why. The team has a good offensive line with a talented backfield duo. They have the receiving talent too with the likes of Terry McLaurin, Curtis Samuel, and Jahan Dotson. On the other side of the ball, their defensive front speaks for itself. They also have some good young pieces in the secondary. If you took the quarterback out of the equation, this is a legitimate roster who should be pushing for the playoffs every season.
They are in the fortunate position of being able to move on from Carson Wentz at no cost next offseason. Taylor Heinecke will also be hitting free agency and whilst he’s a fan favourite, he isn’t exactly a playoff-calibre quarterback. With that in mind I’d be doing everything I can to bring in Derek Carr. Things clearly aren’t working out with him and Josh McDaniels in Vegas, and a fresh start could suit both parties. With Carr under center, the Commanders would have everything they need to compete.
Tom: A blockbuster trade of multiple quarterbacks is coming this offseason – watch this space. It is probably the most obvious choice and yet somehow we will still have to wait months for it to happen. Jimmy G makes my list again and his new home will be a little colder than his current situation. Bringing the hometown boy back to California is what makes this trade a big one though. If the 49ers do not win this year, then they must realise that although the future is firmly with Trey Lance, an angry Aaron Rodgers with pretty much unlimited offensive weapons would be an interesting one-year loan. Garoppolo moving to the Packers makes sense too as a younger, reliable guy who can hold the fort while the proper rebuild begins, ending in his becoming backup to the franchises next star… sound familiar?
With bye weeks gone, we have a full slate of games again in Week 12. Which one are you most looking forward to and why?
Kev: Thanksgiving, Turkey, Football. Cowboys at Giants – is there anything more American than that? The Cowboys come into the game having demolished the (then) 8-1 Vikings in their house, totally embarrassing them in the process. Dak is looking tidy if not spectacular, the running back duo perfectly compliment each other, and they’ve plenty of receiving options. Defensively we’ve all spoken about Micah Parsons and the job Dan Quinn has done over his time there. On paper it should be a walkover at home against a Giants unit who struggle offensively and remain in the bottom third of the league in points per game and points per drive.
Not so fast though. This is a divisional game with fierce rivalry on America’s favourite public holiday. This is “Any Given Thursday”. The Giants will be serving up a heavy dose of Saquon Barkley but with both Evan Neal & Andrew Thomas on the injury report they may have to get creative on offense. Both teams struggle and remain near the bottom of the league on run stuffing success rate so expect a heavy duty trench maul as both teams try to gain an advantage and avoid any costly turnovers. For the Giants to win they can’t get two scores down. Dallas to win a close one.
Tayyib: I like the look of Tennessee and Cincinnati. The Bengals are about keeping pace with the Baltimore Ravens in the AFC North, while the Titans are cruising to another AFC South title. Tennessee’s mean defense is a legitimate threat to anyone in the AFC. The Titans’ defense is a top-five unit in pressures generated. Moreover, the last time Tennessee gave up more than 20 points was in Week 3. The Titans are also one of the best 3rd down defenses in the game. Senior defensive assistant Jim Schwartz has blended his wide-nine front with hints of Dean Pees’ simulated pressures to devastating effect. From front to back, the Titans’ defense is tough, athletic, and intelligent.
On the other hand, the Bengals’ offense clicked into gear last Sunday. Joe Burrow threw four touchdowns and 355 yards in Cincinnati’s win over Pittsburgh. Moreover, when the Bengals’ offensive line wins their blocks, Burrow is first in completion percentage, passer rating, and yards per attempt. Oh yeah, and Ja’Marr Chase is back this week. It is a strength-on-strength matchup, with extra spice as the Titans look to avenge last season’s playoff loss. It is a sneaky-good game in the early window.
Jack: It might sound strange but for me it is the early Thanksgiving game of Bills-Lions. To some this might sound too one-sided to be interesting but bear with me. The Bills haven’t been quite right on offense since Josh Allen’s UCL injury. He is missing easy throws and that is clearly limiting their ability to walk down the field as they usually would. Then there’s their defense. This has quietly dropped off over the course of the last few weeks. Since Week 7 they rank 25th in EPA per play. Through the first six games of the season, they were third.
As for the Lions, they are nothing if not interesting. The defense has been dire all season, whilst the offense has shown flashes. Amon-Ra St. Brown is a real difference maker, and they rank second in EPA per play when he is on the field. They also found success last week with some heavy personnel and that could challenge a Bills defense that loves to live in nickel. I’m still expecting a Bills win, but this could be more fun than people are expecting.
Tom: Right, I will be honest, the only thing I can think about is the return of my beloved Dolphins who this week face the basement dwelling Texans team freshly changed at quarterback. Although I have shown complete bias here, the clash of the week is of course the 7-3 Cowboys vs the 7-3 Giants for Thanksgiving football. Second place in the division is on the line and this should be an absolute classic.
Football and Thanksgiving in America are a pair akin to the Two Ronnies or The Chuckle Brothers. It is always more exciting, especially with the slate of three games back-to-back-to-back. Other matchups that day include a dangerous Lions team against an uncharacteristically vulnerable Bills team and a Vikings team coming off a completely dominant loss facing an underwhelming Patriots team. Both teams are in need of a feel good win. I honestly cannot wait!
Which player matchup are you looking forward to watching in Week 12?
Kev: I’m incredibly pleased to see Chris Olave have the season he’s having. When drafted, the plan was for him to learn at the knee of Michael Thomas and Jarvis Landry. Due to injury, he’s become the leading receiver for this team. If Andy Dalton has the time in the pocket, I see another favourable matchup against the 49ers this weekend. The 49ers’ defense ranks first in opponent yards per game and opponent rushing yards per game. Olave’s polished route running could be the X-factor against the 49ers’ secondary of whom Charvarious Ward has given up 13 yards per reception in zone schemes and Deommodore Lenoir 15.3 per reception in man coverage. Whether they have enough to win this game is another matter but for the DraftKings fans amongst you, don’t be put off by the offense vs defensive matchup.
Tayyib: Derek Stingley vs. Jaylen Waddle feels like the kind of matchup we are going to see for years to come. Stingley has played admirably and has shown plenty of promise as a rookie cornerback. As for Waddle, he is one-half of a ferocious wideout tandem. Waddle challenges defensive backs in every facet of play. Stingley will be no stranger to big-time competition; he played in the SEC, but this feels like another big step up for the rookie.
Jack: For once I’m going for a matchup in the trenches. I can’t wait to see what Jeffrey Simmons does against this Bengals interior offensive line. The last time they met, Simmons had a big day, finishing with three sacks and six defensive stops. Since that matchup the Bengals have remodelled their interior line and, for the most part, it has been a success. Whether they can hold up against this fierce Titans defense is another question though.
I fully expect Tennessee to clog up the run and Simmons to have his way in that department. When it comes to the passing game, you can be sure that he will be targeting rookie left guard Cordell Volson. He has allowed the ninth most pressures amongst all interior linemen this season and has already conceded four sacks. He’ll have his work cut out trying to stop Simmons in this one.
Tom: There is one matchup that is completely going under the radar this week and I think it is because it is fought between two fourth placed teams. The Jets and the Bears have had mixed fortunes this year. Even though they are both the bottom of their respective divisions there have been some incredible bright spots. Justin Fields has recently been picking up all the headlines in Bear country and with his improved play, Darnell Mooney is really coming into his own as the number one guy for the Bears.
This week he faces maybe the best rookie cornerback for a number of years in Sauce Gardner, who is beginning to stake his claim for outright Defensive Player of the Year. Quarterbacks are terrified of him, and so far this season he has been able to lock up stars like Stefon Diggs and Jaylen Waddle. Fields’ ability to run changes this matchup significantly, however do not be shocked to see a battle of the ages from two young players making their name in the NFL.