It’s Thanksgiving week and that means two things – three Thursday games, and a full slate of 16 matchups for Week 12. With that in mind, here are my picks against the spread for every game.
Buffalo Bills at Detroit Lions (+9.5)
The Bills will find themselves at Ford Field for the second straight week after last week’s relocation. Josh Allen looked better against Cleveland and the offense seemed to finally find some success in running the ball. They should have no problem getting the better of a poor Lions defense, but don’t be surprised if Detroit’s offense causes problems. They had great success with heavier personnel last week and I think they can lean into this against a Bills defense that lives in nickel personnel.
Pick: Lions +9.5
New York Giants at Dallas Cowboys (-10)
The Cowboys were ferocious in Week 11 and their dominant win over the Vikings was no fluke. Their defense continues to be outstanding, and the offense is now humming through the air and on the ground. Since Dak Prescott’s return in Week 7 they rank fourth in offensive EPA per play. The cracks are beginning to show with the Giants on the other hand as they were utterly unable to take advantage of a putrid Detroit defense last weekend. They are also looking perilously thin at cornerback. It is a big spread, but Dallas should win and cover.
Pick: Cowboys -10
New England Patriots at Minnesota Vikings (-2.5)
The Patriots embody the limitations of a defense-led team. It took a last-minute punt return for them to separate themselves from a dire Zach Wilson-led Jets team and the offense mustered just three points. The Vikings also managed three points in Week 11, although their defense was also conspicuously absent, allowing 40 points to the Cowboys. Dallas was able to take advantage of Minnesota’s weaknesses in the secondary in that game, but I don’t see the Patriots being able to do the same.
Pick: Vikings -2.5
Atlanta Falcons at Washington Commanders (-4.5)
The Falcons started hot out of the gate, with an exciting offense and potent rushing attack. That has cooled off considerably through recent weeks and they sit 20th in offensive EPA per play since Week 7. What success they have had has come by virtue of their running game. That is bad news ahead of a game against a resurgent Washington defense that ranks second in rushing DVOA this season. That gives me enough confidence for the Commanders to get the win, but I’ve not seen enough from Taylor Heinecke to be comfortable with this spread.
Pick: Falcons +4.5
Baltimore Ravens at Jacksonville Jaguars (+4)
Baltimore didn’t exactly look convincing last weekend and the offense continues to look limited outside of Lamar Jackson and Mark Andrews. That lack of surrounding talent was a big reason they only managed 13 points against the Panthers. On the plus side, their defense seems to be improving weekly and they gave up just three points in Week 11. The Jaguars will give the defense a tougher test, but the offense gets a more favourable matchup against a Jaguars defense that ranks 32nd in EPA per play since Week 6. That should allow Baltimore to cover the spread.
Pick: Ravens -4
Chicago Bears at New York Jets (-6)
Whilst Justin Fields has shown signs of improvement, it still hasn’t been enough to carry the Bears to a win. They are now on a four-game losing streak after their loss to Atlanta in Week 11 and Fields is banged up. That’s bad news against a genuinely excellent Jets defense. As for New York, they have finally made the move and benched Zach Wilson for Mike White. Their defense should be enough to get them the win, but I can’t in good conscience trust White and their offense to cover this spread.
Pick: Bears +6
Cincinnati Bengals at Tennessee Titans (+3)
No Ja’Marr Chase? No problem! Despite the absence of their best receiver, the Bengals offense can seemingly not be stopped, leading the NFL in EPA per play since Week 6. Things are likely to get even better, with Chase expected to return this weekend. They have a tough test though, facing off against a hard-nosed Titans team that is once again greater than the sum of its parts. The last time these two teams met the Titans’ ferocious front kept things close. I think they do that again here.
Pick: Titans +3
Denver Broncos at Carolina Panthers (+2)
Has there been a more disappointing unit in football than the Broncos’ offense? So far this season, Russell Wilson has just seven passing touchdowns. The team has exceeded 20 points just twice and they rank dead last in points per drive. The one silver lining to this cloud is that they have an outstanding defense and are about to face a terrible Panthers offense that managed just three points against the Ravens last weekend. Sam Darnold is in at quarterback as Carolina’s quarterback carousel keeps on spinning. I don’t like either team in this one, but Denver should have enough defensively to keep the Panthers at arm’s length.
Pick: Broncos -2
Houston Texans at Miami Dolphins (-13.5)
The Texans love to play a heavy dose of Cover 2 under Lovie Smith, and in theory this should slow down a rampant Miami offense. In reality it is much different. Tua Tagovailoa leads the NFL with 0.6 EPA per play against Cover 2, more than twice the next best mark. The Dolphins have also shown that they can dominate opponents on the ground, which is also bad news for a Texans defense that ranks 31st in rushing DVOA. Miami does have some holes on defense, but none that I have faith that the Texans can exploit, especially with Kyle Allen at quarterback.
Pick: Dolphins -13.5
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Cleveland Browns (+3.5)
The Bucs had started to find their feet before their bye week, but questions remain about whether they can get the better of this Browns team. Everyone knows that Cleveland is shocking against the Run, but can Tampa Bay exploit that weakness? They have struggled mightily to move the ball on the ground so far, ranking 30th in rushing DVOA this season. As for the Browns, they have enough on offense to keep this one close at home. They should beat the spread.
Pick: Browns +3.5
Los Angeles Chargers at Arizona Cardinals (+3)
The Chargers came so close to beating the Chiefs last week and it is obvious how much of a difference it makes to have a healthy receiving corps. The offense is humming again under Justin Herbert and it is hard not to see this team’s playoff potential. The Cardinals’ season on the other hand looks to have ended with last week’s loss to the 49ers. The defense remains a major weakness, whilst the offense has been limited with Colt McCoy under center. Kyler Murray might be back for this, but I think the Chargers should still win and cover.
Pick: Chargers -3
Las Vegas Raiders at Seattle Seahawks (-3.5)
The Raiders got the better of the Broncos last weekend, but it feels like that says more about Denver than it does about Vegas. Their offense keeps showing its potential, but the lack of consistency is apparent (they rank 27th in Football Outsiders’ Variance metric). The defense has just been plain bad all year and stopping this Seahawks team will be a completely different level of challenge to stopping Russell Wilson and Denver. I’d expect Geno and the Seattle offense to cruise to the win at home in this one.
Pick: Seahawks -3.5
Los Angeles Rams at Kansas City Chiefs (-15.5)
It’s difficult to remember a Super Bowl slump as bad as the Rams’. The offense has completely collapsed and this weekend they will now be without Matthew Stafford as well as Cooper Kupp. With no reliable offensive line or running game to fall back on it is difficult to find any cause for hope. Compare that to an in-form Chiefs team with an unstoppable offense and the best quarterback in football under center. This is a massive spread, but if I can’t see a threadbare offense led by Bryce Perkins keeping pace with Mahomes and the Chiefs.
Pick: Chiefs -15.5
New Orleans Saints at San Francisco 49ers (-9.5)
It feels like this 49ers team are hitting form just at the right moment. Their offense has been cooking since the arrival of Christian McCaffrey, whilst their defense continues to suffocate any opponent that gets in its way. That is bad news for the Saints. New Orleans have been reliant on their defense this season, but with a litany of injuries along the defensive line they won’t be able to do that here. That leaves them in the hands of an offense who has ranked 30th in EPA per play since Week 8. The 49ers should get the win, but the spread is a little too rich for me.
Pick: Saints +9.5
Green Bay Packers at Philadelphia Eagles (-6.5)
The Packers have been dire on the road this season, going 1-4. That will set the alarm bells ringing for a game against the Eagles. Philly looked sloppy at times last weekend, but make no mistake – this remains one of the best teams in the NFC. A big reason for their struggles in Week 11 was a stout Colts run defense. The Packers certainly don’t have one of those. The Eagles’ additions along the defensive line should bottle up Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon, and that is normally enough to get the win over Green Bay.
Pick: Eagles -6.5
Pittsburgh Steelers at Indianapolis Colts (-2.5)
This isn’t exactly going to be a game of offensive fireworks. Pittsburgh and Indianapolis rank 26th and 27th in drive success rate this season and 31st and 30th in points per drive. Whilst both have looked slightly better through recent weeks, it is still not exactly exciting football. It feels like this is one of those games that comes down to defensive matchups, and that favours the Colts. Add in the fact that the Steelers are 1-4 on the road this season and I’m going to lean towards Indy to win and cover.
Pick: Colts -2.5