I’m not sure that we could have asked for two better matchups in this season’s championship games. Both sets of teams faced off already in Week 6 of the regular season. The Bucs and Chiefs won their respective matchups, with Aaron Rodgers and Josh Allen both having one of their worst games of the season. A lot has changed since then though and these both look set to be closely fought affairs. Here are some of the biggest matchups to watch in each game.
Aaron Rodgers vs the blitz
Rodgers had easily his worst game of the season agains the Bucs in Week 6. He threw two interceptions and just his third career pick six. Bucs defensive coordinator Todd Bowles managed to cause problems for Rodgers in ways that no team has before or since, and a lot of that came down to the Bucs blitz heavy approach. They blitzed Rodgers on 51 per cent of his dropbacks, more than any other team this season.
Rodgers struggled and on blitzed dropbacks he threw for just 63 yards on 17 attempts, being sacked three times and throwing two picks. The Bucs relied heavily on fire zone blitzes, with a defensive lineman dropping into coverage and the secondary playing zone behind a five man pass rush.
It will interesting to see if the Bucs try this again and what effect it will have. Rodgers is normally excellent against the blitz and the game from Week 6 was an anomaly. Per PFF Rodgers is a top ten quarterback against the blitz and if you remove the Week 6 matchup he has been the best in the league. The question this weekend is whether the Bucs stick with this approach and how Rodgers can handle it.
Rashan Gary vs Tristan Wirfs
Rashan Gary has had a pretty slow start to his Packers career after being the No. 12 overall pick in the 2019 draft. He seems to found his form now though and has been Green Bay’s best pass rusher down the stretch. Through their last three games, Gary has accounted for 14 pressures and two sacks. He has managed this on just 52 pass rushing snaps.
This weekend will be one of his toughest tests so far and it will be interesting to see how he fares against Tristan Wirfs. Wirfs has had an incredible rookie season and he was my pick at right tackle for the All-Pro Team this season. He has given up just 22 pressures all season and has given up just four in his last seven games.
If the Packers are to win they will need to get pressure on Brady and force him to get the ball out quickly, before their deep route concepts can develop. Given the Bucs’ talent at receiver, they will want to use four man pass rushes where possible and that means players like Gary winning their one-on-one matchups. Whoever wins this battle could help to decide the game.
Bucs receivers vs Kevin King
Even with Antonio Brown out, the Bucs enter this game with one of the NFL’s best receiving corps. They will have a tough time though against a really impressive Packers secondary. Green Bay’s ability in coverage has been an underrated part of their success this season. The team ranks seventh in EPA allowed per dropback since Week 12. Jaire Alexander has been the NFL’s best corner this season, whilst Adrian Amos and Darnell Savage are an excellent duo at safety.
If there is a weakness on this defense that the Bucs will want to attack it is Kevin King. King has allowed 527 yards on his 57 targets this season, at an average of 13.2 yards per reception. He is the only Packers cornerback allowing a QBR above 100 this season. His 51.2 PFF coverage grade ranks 100th amongst corners.
Jaire Alexander should shut down Mike Evans in this one, but the Bucs’ other receivers should get plenty of chances against King. Expect Brady to target him heavily from the outset. If he matches up against Chris Godwin it could be a difficult task for the Packers.
Leslie Frazier vs Patrick Mahomes
Patrick Mahomes looks to have defied expectations and is out of the concussion protocol. That said, although he should play this weekend, he is unlikely to be at 100 per cent. The big question is how the Bills and their defensive coordinator Frazier approach the game. In their first game the Bills sat back and invited the run as a means of limiting the passing game. This time it could be different.
In their Week 6 matchup, the Bills blitzed Mahomes just once on his 34 dropbacks. They prioritised playing good coverage and limiting big plays down the field. It feels like their approach might change in light of Mahomes’ current situation. Even if he is out of the concussion protocol, he is unlikely to be at full fitness. He was also dealing with a toe injury last week agains the Browns that could affect him.
Given his mobility and reliance on outside-of-structure plays, Mahomes is not a quarterback you would normally want to blitz. That said, he may be a bit more limited from a mobility perspective and that is something the Bills can potentially exploit.
Stefon Diggs vs. the Chiefs secondary
Diggs has been even better than many expected after the Bills’ offseason trade with the Vikings. He led the NFL in receiving yards and was voted to his first All-Pro Team. He has become Josh Allen’s biggest weapon and has been a huge factor in both of their playoff wins so far.
Diggs has hit top form just when he needed to. He has gone over 100 yards in five of his last six games and scored six touchdowns. In that period he has averaged 8.5 receptions and 122 yards per game. He has accounted for 30.2 per cent of all of the Bills targets in those six games and will obviously play a big role this weekend.
It is difficult to stop Diggs, but the Chiefs managed better than most in Week 6. In that game he was limited to just six catches for 46 yards and a touchdown. If they are to limit Josh Allen and the Bills passing game then repeating this feat will be the best place to start.
Travis Kelce vs. Bills linebackers
Mahomes might rely on Tyreek Hill for the splash plays, but Travis Kelce is the heart of the Chiefs’ passing game. This season he set the record for tight end receiving yards and finished third in the NFL behind only Stefon Diggs and Davante Adams. If the Bills are going to win this they need to contain Kelce, and that responsibility starts with their linebackers.
Most of Kelce’s targets and yardage have come between the numbers and the Chiefs love to use him underneath to get yards after the catch. The Bills play a lot of two-high coverages and quarters coverages, meaning their linebackers are tasked with covering plenty of space underneath. This is where the Bills need to be strong and stop Kelce.
Going back to Week 6, the Bills did a pretty good job of containing Kelce and their linebacking play was solid. He was limited to just five catches for 69 yards. This was his third fewest receptions and yards in a single game all season. That said, he managed to score two touchdowns and the Bills will need to do better if they are to get the win.
