With the Divisional Round done, 28 of the spots in the first round are locked in. These teams will already be looking towards the offseason and there are some big questions to ask. What will the Saints, Colts and Steelers do at quarterback? Who will be the first receiver off the board? Will it be Justin Fields or Zach Wilson at QB2 after Trevor Lawrence? As always, this mock draft reflects what I would do as the GM of each team and it is not a prediction of what will happen in April.
1. Jacksonville Jaguars – Trevor Lawrence | QB Clemson
This is the first time in their history that the Jags have been picking at No. 1 in the draft. They have a bunch of holes on their roster, none more obvious than quarterback. Any team that trots out Mike Glennon in the regular season is clearly in trouble. Just like last year, there is a clear No. 1 candidate and that is Clemson’s Trevor Lawrence.
Lawrence is not only the clear QB1 in this class, but the best quarterback prospect in the last decade. He had another solid year in 2020, with 3,153 yards, 24 touchdowns and just five picks. People will speculate about the connection between Urban Meyer and Justin Fields, but Lawrence is all but locked in at this spot.
2. New York Jets – Zach Wilson | QB, BYU
Robert Saleh is in as the Jets’ new head coach and he will want to build this team around his own quarterback. The offense was completely ineffective on this season and getting a replacement for Sam Darnold – who ranked 32nd in EPA per play – is the obvious priority.
Wilson was one of the biggest risers in 2020 and it is easy to see why. Whilst some will have concerns about the level of competition he faced at BYU, he was one of the most consistently impressive quarterbacks in college football. He has all the tools you want, with incredible accuracy at every level of the field, good decision making, and the athleticism to extend plays with his legs. There is a reason he has earned comparisons to Aaron Rodgers and Patrick Mahomes.
3. Miami Dolphins (from Houston) – Penei Sewell | OT, Oregon
There are a bunch of options for Miami at this spot. After the way Tua played, quarterback is a genuine possibility. Their receiving corps is weak too and that is another option at this spot. That said, I think that securing their left tackle of the future makes sense here. Austin Jackson struggled in his rookie season and allowed a whopping 38 pressures, including four sacks.
Sewell was one of the biggest names to opt out of the 2020 season but he remains one of the top prospects on draft boards up and down the country. He is a generational prospect, with excellent strength and athleticism. He allowed just one sack across his 706 pass blocking snaps at Oregon. A mauler in the run game and a strong pass protector, Sewell can do it all to a high level and he is still only 20 years old.
4. Atlanta Falcons – Justin Fields | QB, Ohio State
The Falcons have an interesting decision to make this offseason. They are tied in to Matt Ryan for at least another season, but he is 36 years old and they need to think about a succession plan. Defense is their biggest need, but no player will move the needle like a quarterback does. This pick won’t turn the team from 4-12 to being a contender, but it will help them build for the future.
Fields had another excellent season with the Buckeyes, finishing with 2,098 yards, 22 touchdowns and six picks through his eight games. He has arguably the best deep ball skills in the class. Few prospects can match his combination of accuracy, athleticism, and arm talent. It is a measure of the quarterback quality at the top of this class that Fields falls this far.
5. Cincinnati Bengals – Ja’Marr Chase | WR, LSU
The Bengals found out the hard way that they need to protect Joe Burrow better. That said, there isn’t the value to take a tackle at this spot, so the next best thing is to surround him with talent as skill positions. A.J. Green and John Ross are both free agents this offseason and the Bengals need extra firepower on offense.
Chase is another of the big names to opt out this season but he remains my WR1. His production in 2019 was phenomenal, setting the SEC record for receiving yards with 1,780 yards on 84 receptions. Chase is an excellent route runner, with the ability to consistently create separation and stretch the field vertically. He ranks second in 20+ yard receptions and 1st in deep touchdowns since 2019, despite not playing a single snap this season.
6. Philadelphia Eagles – Trey Lance | QB, NDSU
With Nick Siriani in as the Eagles’ new head coach, I’ll be interested to see what direction they take here. I think that the logical move is to look at quarterback. Carson Wentz should not be the future of this franchise and Jalen Hurts didn’t show enough through his four games to rest the future of the franchise on his shoulders.
The concerns with Lance are clear. He faced a low level of competition in the FCS and has just one year as a starter. He was also helped out by a run-heavy North Dakota offense. Despite all that, his performances are well worth a top ten pick. In 2019 he finished with 28 touchdowns and no picks on his way to an FCS championship. He has elite arm strength and looks like a running back in the open field. There is a reason he’s been earning comps to Cam Newton.
7. Detroit Lions – Jaylen Waddle | WR, Alabama
Defense was this team’s weakness in 2020, but they need to do something at wide receiver. Both Marvin Jones and Kenny Golladay are set to become free agents and their leading receivers for 2021 are currently set to be Geronimo Allison and Quintez Cephus. I wouldn’t be surprised if they target the position in free agency, but doing so in the draft makes sense too.
Waddle has the speed and separation ability to be an elite NFL receiver. His opportunities were limited in 2020 after an injury, but he showed that he could manage a higher workload and that he can win on the boundary. He finished the season with an average 21.1 yards per catch and 10.1 yards after contact. He has a perfect 158.3 passer rating when targeted over his last two seasons at Alabama.
8. Carolina Panthers – Micah Parsons | LB, Penn State
The Panthers are obviously in the market for a quarterback, but with the top four off the board there is nobody else worth taking here. There are certainly other areas of need though, and their defense was a problem last year. They ranked 24th in EPA per play and linebacker was an obvious weakness. Shaq Thompson didn’t live up to expectations and his 51.6 PFF grade ranked 65th at the position.
Parsons is the top defensive player on my Big Board and is widely regarded as the best linebacker prospect since Luke Kuechly. He is incredibly athletic, with fantastic sideline-to-sideline agility. His biggest strength is his run defense but he is also a legitimately talented pass rusher. His coverage ability needs some refinement, but he has all of the tools to be a top tier player in the NFL.
9. Denver Broncos – Kwity Paye | EDGE, Michigan
The Broncos are another team likely to be in the quarterback market, but once again there isn’t the value to take someone at this spot. Instead they can invest in their defense and secure the future of their pass rush. Von Miller turns 32 this offseason and will be a free agent next summer and now is the time to consider a succession plan.
Paye was limited to just four games in 2020, but he was unplayable. He racked up 22 total pressures on just 138 pass rushing snaps and has developed into a much more polished pass rusher. Few players can match his combination of size, strength, and speed. Paye stands at 6’4″ and 272 whilst running a 4.5 40 yard dash and a record-setting three cone.
10. Dallas Cowboys – Kyle Pitts | TE, Florida
Cowboys fans might be keen to address defense with this pick, but there is value to be had at corner and safety on Day 2. Instead they can look to add even more weapons for Dak Prescott and create arguably the best receiving corps in the NFL. Dalton Schultz was solid this season, but Kyle Pitts provides a truly dynamic mismatch weapon.
Calling Pitts a tight end does him a disservice. This season he became the first tight end in history to be named as a finalist for the Biletnikoff Award, given to the best receiver in college football. In his final season with the Gators he finished with 770 yards and 12 touchdowns, averaging an incredible 17.9 yards per catch. He can line up in-line, in the slot, and out wide. Pitts is too big for defensive backs and too quick for linebackers. He would elevate this offense from day one.
11. New York Giants – Devonta Smith | WR, Alabama
After the performances of Andrew Thomas in his rookie year I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Giants pick another tackle in the first round. That said, I think the smart move is to surround Daniel Jones with the weapons to succeed. Darius Slayton was their leading receiver in 2020, with 751 yards and three touchdowns. This offense is in dire need a true No. 1 receiver to finally fill the void left by Odell Beckham Jr.
This year Smith became the first wide receiver to win the Heisman Trophy since Desmond Howard in 1991. At 6’1″ and 180 lbs, he lacks the prototypical size of an NFL receiver, but few can rival his production. He led the Crimson Tide in receiving yards in back-to-back seasons. He finished 2020 with 117 catches for 1,856 yards and 23 touchdowns. Smith would provide an immediate boost to the Giants’ production.
12. San Francisco 49ers – Caleb Farley | CB, Virginia Tech
The 49ers are one of a handful of teams I would expect to consider trading up in the first round. With none of the top quarterbacks left though, I think they address the other side of the ball. Four of their starting corners are hitting free agency, including Richard Sherman and Jason Verrett. It looks like the weakest position on their 2021 roster right now so taking Farley makes sense.
Farley was another of the big names to opt out of the 2020 season, but he remains by CB1. He possesses the ideal combination of size and speed to win consistently on the boundary. His 2019 tape is some of the best you will see, with 13 forced incompletions and a reception rate of just 36 per cent. Farley allowed a passer rating of just 26.8. For context, throwing the ball away on every play would give a passer rating of 39.6
13. Los Angeles Chargers – Christian Darrisaw | OT, Virginia Tech
The Chargers seem to have found their quarterback of the future in Justin Herbert. He already has plenty of weapons in the passing game and the next step will be to ensure he is protected in the pocket. The Chargers ranked 30th in PFF pass blocking grade this season and Herbert was pressured on 36.6 per cent of his dropbacks.
Darrisaw would provide a solid presence at left tackle and he is coming off a great season at Virginia Tech. He allowed just six pressures through ten games and didn’t give up a single sack. Darrisaw is also elite in the running game, with his 94.5 PFF run blocking grade ranking second in the FBS. He possesses the ideal combination of strength and athleticism and will be a great addition to the Chargers’ offense.
14. Minnesota Vikings – Gregory Rousseau | EDGE, Miami
Much of the attention on the Vikings defense this season focused on their secondary. The real problem however came upfront, where they were unable to generate consistent pressure. Their 18.2 per cent pressure rate ranked 30th in the NFL, ahead of only the Titans and Lions. Even when Danielle Hunter returns from injury they will need more help, and that is exactly what Rousseau will provide.
The Miami prospect is very much a project player, but his upside is tremendous. He only began playing the position in college and in his first season as a starter he racked up 46 pressures and 16 sacks. His best performances actually came on the interior, but he has the athleticism and length to win off the edge. He isn’t the finished project, but Rousseau has some of the highest upside in the 2021 class.
15. New England Patriots – Rashod Bateman | WR, Minnesota
The Patriots are one of a handful of quarterback needy teams this season, but I don’t think there is the value at this spot. I would expect them to address it in free agency, but regardless of their approach, they definitely need to add some weapons on offense. They have easily the worst wide receiver group in the NFL and whilst Jakobi Myers wasn’t bad, he is far from being a true WR1.
With Bateman they can get one of the most polished route runners in the 2021 class. He has performed out wide and in the slot and averaged over 20 yards per reception in 2019. He’s not an elite athlete, but his separation ability and elusiveness (36 forced missed tackles on 147 career receptions) makes him well worth a first round pick.
16. Arizona Cardinals – Patrick Surtain II | CB, Alabama
The Cardinals are thin at corner and it showed this season. Dre Kirkpatrick and Patrick Peterson both struggled and they need to add some youth at the position. Defensive coordinator Vance Joseph also uses a lot of man coverage concepts in their blitz heavy scheme and they need somebody who is comfortable playing on an island with elite receivers.
There isn’t a player in the draft who fits this bill more than Patrick Surtain II. He enters the NFL on the back of three outstanding years at Alabama and was a Unanimous All-American in 2020. Surtain is excellent in single coverage and has allowed a completion percentage of just 51.9 across his career. He brings the added benefit of ball production too, with 25 forced incompletions through his career.
17. Las Vegas Raiders – Jayson Oweh | EDGE, Penn State
The Raiders were terrible on defense this season and it limited any potential playoff ambitions. With Gus Bradley coming in as defensive coordinator they are set to shift their approach. Bradley’s teams rarely blitz and he is heavily reliant on the front four to generate pressure. Clelin Ferrell and Maxx Crosby have both been good at times, but this is a team in need of a marquee pass rusher.
Oweh would be a great choice for them at this spot. He is one of the most athletic prospects you will find at the position, reportedly running a 4.3 40 at 6’5″ and 252 lbs. He didn’t have a sack in 2020, but don’t let that distract you from his talent. Oweh generated 20 total pressures on just 171 pass rushing snaps this season. He is solid against the run too, with his 89.8 PFF run defense grade ranking third amongst FBS edge rushers.
18. Miami Dolphins – Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah | LB, Notre Dame
Dolphins fans might want to address receiver or running back at this spot, but those are both deep position groups, with plenty of value to be found on Day 2. The same can’t be said for linebacker, a position that the Dolphins need to improve. Kyle Van Noy had a solid season, but both Jerome Baker and Elandon Roberts struggled in coverage.
Owusu-Koramoah would be the perfect fix and the versatility he brings would be ideal for Brian Flores’ defensive scheme. He has excellent instincts and a great feel for coverage, where he allowed a passer rating of just 77.3 all season. Owusu-Koramoah also offers versatility as a blitzer and his strong run defense gives him a great all-around game.
19. Washington Football Team – Rashawn Slater | OT, Northwestern
The next three picks are all quarterback-needy teams, but I think that a lack of value, as well as free agency options, sees them target other positions in the draft. What Washington can do here is begin to build their offense around a future quarterback and that starts with a franchise left tackle. Cornelius Lucas was good down the stretch, but he is certainly not the kind of player you want to rest your team’s future on.
Slater opted out of the 2020 season, but he was excellent throughout his final season at Northwestern, earning an 87.4 PFF pass blocking grade. Whilst some will have concerns about his lack of length, Slater performed brilliantly against top competition, allowing just five pressures in 355 pass blocking snaps. His game against Ohio State was incredible and he didn’t allow a single pressure against Chase Young.
20. Chicago Bears – Kadarius Toney | WR, Florida
With Allen Robinson set to leave in free agency, the Bears will be left with Darnell Mooney and Anthony Miller at wide receiver. Miller himself is set to hit free agency in 2022. This is a prove-it season for Matt Nagy and Ryan Pace and I don’t see them starting over with a rookie quarterback. Instead they will want to add some dynamic weapons on offense and they get that with Toney.
After playing a gadget role for much of his career, Toney burst onto the scene in 2020. He became Kyle Trask’s biggest weapon, racking up 977 yards and 10 touchdowns. Toney possess elite speed and is one of the most elusive players in all of college football. Over the last two seasons he has broken 34 tackles on his 80 receptions and averaged 8.4 yards after the catch.
21. Indianapolis Colts – Samuel Cosmi | OT, Texas
It is tough to lose your starting quarterback and franchise left tackle in the same season, but that is the situation the Colts find themselves in. I would tempted to take a quarterback here, but there some good options in free agency. This is also a deep tackle class with plenty of quality to be found at the back end of the first round.
There aren’t many players in college football who can rival Cosmi as a pass protector. He had plenty of opportunities to impress in a pass-heavy Texas offense and allowed just eight pressures on 368 pass blocking snaps in 2020. He is an incredibly athletic prospect, with the ability to play out in space and get up to the second level in the running game.
22. Tennessee Titans – Jaelan Phillips | EDGE, Miami
The Titans’ playoff ambitions fell down because of their defense. It was a problem all season and they could look to almost any position to add more quality. Edge rusher is probably the biggest need though as they ranked 31st in pressure rate at just 17.3 per cent. Harold Landry was solid, but they need another complimentary threat, particularly with Clowney hitting free agency.
Phillips is a fascinating prospect. He was the No. 1 collegiate recruit in 2017, ahead of players like Chase Young and Tua Tagovailoa. After medically retiring in 2018, he made a comeback with Miami this season. With the ideal combination of size and athleticism, Phillips dominated his opponents. He finished the year with 42 pressures and nine sacks. He was one of only three draft-eligible prospects with an 80+ PFF grade against the pass and the run.
23. New York Jets (from Seattle) – Asante Samuel Jr. | CB, Florida State
The Jets get their quarterback of the future at No. 3 and they can address the other side of the ball at this spot. Whilst their run defense was pretty solid, they were awful in coverage, ranking 29th in EPA per dropback. Corner is an obvious weakness and they need some more talent on the boundary to shore up the defense.
Samuel is a little undersized for a traditional boundary corner, but what he lacks in size he makes up for with athleticism. He has great speed, with fluid hips and click and close ability. His ball production with the Seminoles was a consistent theme. His 27 career forced incompletions ranks third in the class, behind only Paulson Adebo and Shemar Jean-Charles.
24. Pittsburgh Steelers – Mac Jones | QB, Alabama
It is becoming increasingly obvious that Ben Roethlisberger is holding this offense back. His inability to push the ball downfield saw them collapse down the stretch as even sub-par defenses like Cleveland were able to scheme effectively against them. Even if Big Ben stays in 2021, it is time to start considering the future.
Jones is coming off a fantastic season with Alabama that saw him rack up 4,494 yards for 41 touchdowns and just four picks. He doesn’t possess the elite physical tools like the top tier quarterbacks in this class, but he is one of the most accurate and intelligent prospects available. He is comfortable making throws to all levels of the field, with the anticipation and progression skills to be a success in the NFL.
25. Jacksonville Jaguars (from Los Angeles Rams) – Teven Jenkins | OT, Oklahoma State
The Jags could legitimately invest in any position at this spot but with their franchise quarterback secured they need to make sure he is well protected. Cam Robinson had another terrible season that saw him allow 40 pressures and five sacks. He hits free agency this offseason and there is no way the Jags will re-sign him. They need a long term solution at the position, and that is what Jenkins would provide.
Jenkins has been one of the draft’s biggest risers. He has experience playing on both sides of the offensive line and has allowed just 11 pressures on his 623 pass blocking snaps since the start of 2019. He also has not allowed a single sack in that period. Jenkins is one of the draft’s most powerful lineman and has shown he can be a mauler in the running game too.
26. Cleveland Browns – Jaycee Horn | CB, South Carolina
The Browns had a great first season under Kevin Stefanski, but their defense held them back at times. They couldn’t cover on the back end and ranked 22nd in EPA allowed per dropback. A lack of cornerback talent outside of Denzel Ward is an issue they will need to address over the offseason.
Horn possesses the ideal blend of size and length that you look for in a corner. He is comfortable in press coverage and has the physicality to challenge receivers downfield. He developed into a genuine shutdown corner in 2020. On 24 targets he allowed just eight catches for 116 yards, with two picks and five forced incompletions.
27. Baltimore Ravens – Alijah Vera-Tucker | IOL, USC
Their playoff exit at the hand of the Bills has only intensified the questions surrounding Lamar Jackson and Greg Roman’s play calling. Whilst it is tempting to consider a wide receiver at this spot, I’m not sure there is the value or the fit available. Instead they can address their interior offensive line, which took a big step back in 2020 after Marshal Yanda’s retirement.
Vera-Tucker has been excellent in his two years starting for USC. He played as a guard in 2019 and was great in both the running game and pass protection. He switched over to tackle this season and looked good, allowing just eight pressures through six games. I think his best fit in the pros is back at guard though and he would be a very useful addition to this offensive line.
28. New Orleans Saints – Zaven Collins | LB, Tulsa
The Saints are set to be around $100m over the cap this offseason and they will need to make some drastic changes to their roster over the next couple of months. One obvious spot is at linebacker. Kwon Alexander is likely to be gone, whilst Demario Davis has just turned 32 and even if he avoids being cut, his time with the Saints is coming to an end sooner rather than later.
Collins would be a great replacement for Davis and would bring the versatility that the Saints expect from their linebackers. He had an excellent 2020 that saw him named Unanimous All-American and the winner of the Bednarik Award for best linebacker. At 6’4″ and 260 lbs, Collins is built like an edge rusher, with the blitzing ability you would expect. He is also surprisingly athletic and an excellent coverage player. He had five forced incompletions on 15 targets in 2020, allowing a passer rating of just 62.2.
29. Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Christian Barmore | IDL, Alabama
The Bucs had one of the NFL’s best pass rushes this season, but they are set to lose Shaq Barrett and Ndamukong Suh in free agency. They could legitimately target anywhere on their defensive line, so from that perspective in makes sense to take the best player available at either position. That gives them Barmore, the clear IDL1 in the 2021 class.
Barmore is an elite pass rusher from the interior, with the athleticism and strength to disrupt up the middle. He finished the season with 39 pressures and eight sacks, with a PFF pass rushing grade of 91.1. This ranked fourth in the FBS. Barmore elevated his stock down the stretch, saving his best performances for the top competition. 12 of his 39 pressures came against Notre Dame and Ohio State.
30. Buffalo Bills – Azeez Ojulari | EDGE, Georgia
The Bills are one of the few teams in the NFL with no obvious holes on their roster and no major cap concerns over the offseason. With that being said, I think it makes sense to look to the future and secure a legitimately impressive edge rusher. Both of their starters are nearing the end of their NFL career and whilst Jerry Hughes has impressed, they would do well to add more talent.
Ojulari has blossomed into an excellent pass rusher in his first season as a starter with Georgia. He is an incredible athlete and the best pure speed rusher in this class. He racked up 37 pressures and nine sacks on just 193 pass rushing snaps this season. Ojulari also offers some solid run defense and the ability to drop into coverage when required.
31. Green Bay Packers – Nick Bolton | LB, Missouri
The Packers defense has been quietly improving down the stretch, allowing just 17.3 points per game since Week 13. One of the few weaknesses has been at linebacker. Whilst rookies Kamal Martin and Krys Barnes have impressed at times, Green Bay could do with a top quality, do-it-all player who can cover in space and solidify their run defense.
They get that with Bolton, a two-time First Team All-SEC linebacker. He is an explosive player, who loves to get downhill and stuff the run. You won’t find many better tacklers, with just an 11.8 missed tackle rate across his career. He is no slouch in coverage either, where he led all linebackers in 2019 with a PFF coverage grade of 90.4. Whilst he doesn’t possess ideal length, his production speaks for itself.
32. Kansas City Chiefs – Carlos Basham | EDGE, Wake Forest
With Sammy Watkins hitting free agency I would be tempted to add yet more offensive firepower to the Chiefs. That said, they are in desparate need of better edge talent. Frank Clark is their main threat off the edge but his 40 total pressures ranks just 26th in the NFL. Given he accounts for over $25m in cap hit, he is a prime candidate to be cut with a reduced salary cap for 2021.
The Chiefs can reinvest at the position and Basham is one of the most intriguing prospects in this year’s draft. He ranked No. 2 on Bruce Feldman’s Freaks List, with one of the scariest combinations of size and athleticism. He has been consistently productive throughout his career at Wake Forest, accounting for 137 pressures and 23 sacks in the past three seasons.
