2021 served as something of a bounce back year for the Patriots after enduring their first losing season in two decades the year before. Mac Jones hit the ground running as a rookie, taking the team to a 10-7 finish and a spot in the playoffs. The excitement ended there as they were torn apart by a rampant Bills offense, but the building blocks are certainly in place for future success.
Offseason additions and losses
The Patriots were one of a number of teams that were up against it with the salary cap this offseason. This quite clearly impacted their ability to bring on board big name free agents. The best they could manage was Jabril Peppers, who they signed to a one-year, $1.7m deal. They also made two notable trades. The first was getting Devante Parker from their division rival Dolphins, for which they sent a third round pick to Miami. They also landed Mack Wilson in a trade with the Browns that saw Chase Winovich go the other way.
The Patriots’ cap situation also resulted in a number of key names moving on from the team. Chief amongst these was J.C. Jackson, who has earned a reputation as one of the game’s best cornerback. The team was also forced to trade Shaq Mason to get under the cap, sending him to the Bucs in exchange for just a sixth round pick. Patriots stalwarts Kyle Van Noy and Dont’a Hightower were also allowed to walk in free agency.
2022 NFL Draft
| Pick | Player |
| 1.29 | Cole Strange – IOL, Chattanooga |
| 2.50 | Tyquan Thornton – WR, Baylor |
| 3.85 | Marcus Jones – CB, Houston |
| 4.121 | Jack Jones – CB, Arizona State |
| 4.127 | Pierre Strong – RB, South Dakota State |
| 4.137 | Bailey Zappe – QB, Western Kentucky |
| 6.183 | Kevin Harris – RB, South Carolina |
| 6.200 | Sam Roberts – IDL, NW Missouri State |
| 6.210 | Chasen Hines – IOL, LSU |
| 7.245 | Andrew Stueber – OT, Michigan |
Everyone knows the Patriots draft differently. They are the team that zigs when everyone else zags. Nothing embodies that fact more than their selection of Cole Strange in the first round. Strange is no doubt a talented lineman and one who should become a solid NFL pro, but the first round felt rich. They continued that trend with Tyquan Thornton in the second round, widely considered a late rounder with special teams value. The one really interesting name to watch is Marcus Jones. Jones is one of the most dynamic returners in recent college football history and earned a reputation as a ball hawk in coverage.
Offense
If you are trying to talk yourself into the Patriots’ offense for 2022 it is fairly easy to see how you would go about doing it. Mac Jones was as pro-ready as expected and looked the best of all rookie quarterbacks in 2021. He had a solid 4.5% big-time throw rate and took great care of the ball, logging the sixth best turnover-worthy play rate in the NFL. He gets to play behind a really impressive offensive line that pairs with a deep backfield to give the Patriots one of the most physical offenses the NFL has to offer.
Unfortunately for New England fans, that is where the positives end. Their receiving corps continues to be underwhelming. The addition of Devante Parker and drafting of Tyquan Thornton will no doubt help things, but neither player moves the needle enough. The team clearly still lacks a true No. 1 receiver for Jones to work with. With the exception of Thornton, they also continue to lack speed at the position, leaving their receivers unable to consistently separate.
Then there is perhaps the biggest worry of all – who is running the offense? The team has still not replaced Josh McDaniels at offensive coordinator and does not appear to be in any rush to do so. If recent reports are to be believed, the role is set to be shared by the trio of Bill Belichick, Matt Patricia, and Joe Judge. When you account for the fact that Belichick and Patricia both have backgrounds as defensive coaches and Judge as a special teams coach, it isn’t exactly inspiring. Don’t forget that Judge’s New York Giants ranked 32nd in offensive EPA per play during his tenure. Patricia’s Lions weren’t much better at 23rd.
Defense
Last season we saw Bill Belichick tinker once again with the Patriots’ defensive identity. After establishing a reputation for running fairly simple man-heavy concepts exceptionally well, he pivoted. In 2021 the team shifted to a much more zone-heavy scheme, using far more disguised looks to fool opposing quarterbacks. It worked out well too, with the team finishing fourth in defensive DVOA.
The question for 2022 is not about whether Belichick has still got it – he is evidently still one of the greatest defensive minds in football – but about whether they have the players to win with their defense. Their biggest star in recent years has been J.C. Jackson, but the Patriots’ cap situation meant that they were forced to let him walk in free agency. His departure leaves them with a solid unit, but one that is really missing some star power.
It might also be too much to ask this defense to win games on their own as it so often has in the past. This is an old team (their snap-weighted age of 27.4 was the second highest in the NFL) that just lost their best player. The talent is there with players like Adrian Phillips and Christian Barmore, but whether it is enough to make a consistent difference in 2022 is another matter entirely.
Projection
It is difficult to get excited by this version of the Patriots. Betting against Bill Belichick feels like a foolish thing to do, but it is hard to argue against the fact that this roster has got worse rather than better over the offseason. In a division where all of their rivals have made serious improvements, New England will have their work cut out in 2022. Double digits wins will certainly be harder to come by this season.
