When the Jets took Zach Wilson No. 2 overall in the 2021 Draft, it seemed to signal the start of a new era. They finally had the quarterback they needed to help turn this franchise around. Fast forward 18 months and that optimism is crumbling fast. A tough rookie season with nine touchdowns and 11 picks was tough to swallow. The fact he doesn’t seem to have improved in his second season just makes it all worse.
His performances, particularly last week against the Patriots, have left Jets fans asking all sorts of existential questions: is Wilson still the future? Is he beyond repair? Can the Jets ever challenge with him under center?
If he’s ever to realise those hopes, there are three areas of his game where he will need to show major improvement. Let’s dive into the film and talk about them in a bit more detail.
Playing within structure
If you turn on any Jets game, it is painfully apparent just how much Wilson struggles to play within structure. His ability to make spectacular throws on the run has never been in question. This was part of the reason that many compared his playstyle to Patrick Mahomes when he was coming out in the draft. The big difference is that whilst the likes of Mahomes and Josh Allen can deliver otherworldly out of structure throws, they are also clinical at beating defenses from the pocket. Wilson has yet to show he can do the same.
Take this play for example. This came on a 3rd and 10 with the Jets trailing late in the game. They have called a Double Over concept, with two of the receivers running deep over routes from opposite sides of the field. The play call works exactly as they hope. If you watch the boundary side slot receiver Jeff Smith (#16) you will see he is wide open across the middle of the field. So what’s the problem? That would be Zach Wilson.
This kind of deep developing play requires patience from the quarterback. Wilson needs to hit the top of his drop, set his feet, and uncork the throw. What he does instead is inexcusable. Before he even gets to the top of his drop, Wilson starts to bail on the pocket. The pressure on his left is definitely a factor here, but what you would like to see from Wilson is the confidence to climb the pocket and keep his eyes downfield. Instead he runs right at Mack Wilson, who is operating as a spy to prevent him escaping.
This next play is even worse. The Jets are in the red zone and run one of their staple concepts to the top of the screen – slant-flat (sometimes referred to as Dragon). The concept is great against man coverage and luckily for the Jets that is exactly what the Patriots are playing. The read on the play is simple. The quarterback identifies the flat route defender and if they vacate the throwing lane for the slant, that is where the ball goes. If they are slow to the flat, you get the ball out quickly to the flats.
The play starts well, with Wilson reading the slant. He notices that Jahlani Tavai (#48) is slow to get out to the flat and at this point he looks towards CJ Uzomah (#87) on the flat route. This is where things collapse. Instead of throwing the ball to his wide open teammate, Wilson instead decides to drift 13 yards backwards in the pocket. Unsurprisingly this results in tonnes of pressure, before he delivers an inaccurate pass on a desperation heave to Michael Carter (#32).
Decision making
This next point is inextricably linked to Wilson’s poor pocket presence, and that is persistent problems with decision making. There are a few issues here. The most obvious are the maddening interceptions that seem to go viral every time he plays (we’ll get to those). But there are also far too many basic plays that Wilson just fails to execute properly. This is not something you should be seeing, especially from a former top five pick.
On this play the Jets are once again running slant-flat, though this time with the receiver and running back. As mentioned previously, the quarterback is responsible for reading the slant, and then the flat as his secondary option. It ends up being nothing like that.
Instead, Wilson predetermines his throw before the snap. It looks like he expects Jahlani Tavai (#48) to rush, with Ja’Whuan Bentley (#8) responsible for covering the flat. In reality, Tavai is once again the flat route defender rather than pass rusher. He doesn’t even stop to check if that guess was correct and goes straight for the flat route. If he had executed the play properly he’d have noticed that not only is the flat route covered, but that the slant to Garrett Wilson (#17) is wide open.
And now we move onto the really egregious stuff. This play came on a 3rd and 7 early in the fourth quarter. The Patriots send a delayed blitz which forces Wilson to speed up his processing. The problem is that his failure to adjust to the post-snap picture costs them once again.
As soon as he sees the Patriots send an additional rusher, Wilson should know he has Jeff Smith (#16) open on the drag route. He knows that the pressure is coming and he likely won’t have time for any deeper routes to develop, so getting the ball out and giving Smith a chance to create after the catch is the smart move. Instead, he bails on the pocket and refuses to throw it to Smith, waiting for something to come open downfield. When nothing does, he delivers a terrible ball into triple coverage and gets picked off.
I’m sure you’ll have seen this play next before too. The Jets dial up a beautifully structured play here. Wilson is on a designed rollout, and the two receivers to the field side are selling the smash concept (hitch and corner route). This is a routine high-low combination you’ll see run at every level of football. Part of the beauty is that it gives the quarterback a simple binary read. In reality, Denzel Mims (#11) is running a double move and turning the corner route into a go route. This fools Jonathan Jones (#31) who bites on the corner and leaves Mims open downfield.
The play has worked exactly as the Jets coaching staff hoped. All that Zach Wilson needs to do at this point is uncork it and launch the ball downfield to Mims. At worst this would be a huge completion, and at best it is a touchdown. Instead, his eyes inexplicably flick back across the middle of the field. This delay allows the safety to close on Mims, shutting down the go route and leaving Wilson with nothing. He then makes matters worse with a pitiful attempt at a throwaway that ends up getting picked.
Inconsistent accuracy
Bad pocket management and decision making are both serious concerns in evaluating quarterbacks. What makes me even more worried with Wilson’s game at the moment are his issues with accuracy. Even when he manages the pocket and makes good decisions, he is far too often late or inaccurate with his passes.
Nowhere is that more apparent than on this next play. Wilson is quick to identify that the Patriots are playing Cover 1 and he knows that gives him a one-on-one matchup with his receiver to the top of the screen. The decision making here is excellent, but the inaccuracy kills the play. Instead of delivering the ball in stride to Denzel Mims (#11) for a potential touchdown, he underthrows him massively and forces a contested catch where Mims has no real chance of getting his feet down inbounds.
This next play also encapsulates Wilson’s issues with accuracy and post-snap processing. The key thing to notice here is that Wilson is throwing “hot”. This means that the pass protection is outnumbered (in this case on the right side) and the quarterback needs to get the ball out fast. If he doesn’t he’s likely to take a big hit. Any quarterback worth their salt knows this.
Wilson needs to get the ball out, in this case to his tight end running the drag route. He recognises this, but he’s just a touch late in doing so. Once again you see some funky footwork and he backs up as he starts to throw. This inhibits his accuracy and the ball goes sailing into the waiting arms of the defense.
The outlook for the Jets is pretty bleak. There is obviously a chance that things click for Wilson and he turns things around, but with each week that passes it feels less and less likely. His inability to operate consistently from the pocket is killing their passing game and his decision making and accuracy just aren’t good enough for a supposed franchise quarterback. If Wilson carries on like this the Jets could well find themselves dipping into the quarterback market next offseason.
