The 2022 season was pretty rough in Chicago. Despite some flashes from Justin Fields in his second year, the team couldn’t translate that into results on the field. They slumped to three wins, including 10 straight losses to end the season. Their three wins were tied for their lowest single season total in the Super Bowl era and they finished fourth in the NFC North for the first time since 2017.
Roster changes
The Bears entered the offseason with a ridiculous amount of cap space and they used that to their advantage. They dished out some big free agency deals, none more so than a four-year $72 million deal for Tremaine Edmunds. They also added guard Nate Davis on a three-year $30 million deal and defensive tackle DeMarcus Walker on a three-year $21 million deal. Let’s not forget that they also managed to add DJ Moore as part of their trade down from the No. 1 overall pick with the Panthers.
Their plentiful cap space meant that they didn’t lose any major names either. Running back David Montgomery was perhaps the most high profile, leaving to sign a deal with the Lions. Linebacker Nicholas Morrow and center Sam Mustipher were the only players to depart who had played more than two thirds of the Bears’ snaps in 2022.
Coaching situation
2023 will be the crucial second season for Matt Eberflus and his coaching staff. After a summer of change last year, things stayed pretty consistent this offseason, with Luke Getsy and Alan Williams keeping their jobs as offensive and defensive coordinator respectively. Outside of that there were a handful of fairly minor additions, including the acquisition of Jon Hoke as defensive passing game coordinator and Zach Cable as offensive quality control coach.
2023 NFL Draft
| Pick | Player |
| 1.10 | Darnell Wright – OT, Tennesssee |
| 2.53 | Gervon Dexter – IDL, Florida |
| 2.56 | Tyrique Stevenson – CB, Miami |
| 3.64 | Zacch Pickens – IDL, South Carolina |
| 4.115 | Roschon Johnson – RB, Texas |
| 4.133 | Tyler Scott – WR, Cincinnati |
| 5.148 | Noah Sewell – LB, Oregon |
| 5.165 | Terell Smith – CB, Minnesota |
| 7.218 | Travis Bell – IDL, Kennesaw State |
| 7.258 | Kendall Williamson – S, Stanford |
The Bears bolstered their offensive line with the selection of Darnell Wright, although trading down and passing on a blue chip prospect like Jalen Carter was more than a little surprising. The rest of their class was a mixed bag too. Gervon Dexter needs some polishing, but he’s ideally suited to the Bears’ one-gapping scheme. Stevenson and Pickens both felt a little early for the talent they had shown on tape but the selection of Roschon Johnson in the fourth was excellent.
Offense
The Bears managed to develop a phenomenal rushing attack in 2022, finishing sixth in EPA per rush. Justin Fields was a huge part of that, with his 54.88 points earned leading all quarterbacks by a wide margin. There is reason to believe the run game gets even better this year too, with the addition of a good right tackle and D’Onta Foreman and Roschon Johnson in free agency and the draft respectively.
You also cannot understate the importance of adding DJ Moore to this receiving corps. Moore was consistently productive in Carolina despite the team cycling through a handful of poor quarterbacks during his time with the team. He racked up over 5,000 yards in five seasons with the Panthers. Moore can be a force multiplier for the Bears, helping the likes of Darnell Mooney and Chase Claypool who are now WR2 and WR3 respectively.
The ceiling of this unit will be determined by whether Justin Fields can take the next step as a passer. He struggled mightily in 2022 and just was not quick enough to get the ball out. He became just the second quarterback in the last 10 years to have an average time to throw above 3.4 seconds – the other quarterback to hit this mark was Terrelle Pryor in 2013. This was admittedly in part because he was fighting for his life behind a porous offensive line, but it is tough to ignore the fact he ranked 34th in passing DVOA and 34th in DYAR.
Defense
The Bears’ defense was awful by pretty much every metric in 2022, allowing the highest points per drive and drive success rate in the NFL. They have invested over the offseason though, most notably at linebacker. Tremaine Edmunds is coming off his best season in Buffalo, allowing a passer rating of just 82.1 and forcing seven incompletions. Matt Eberflus likes to play a lot of Cover 2, and having a do-it-all linebacker like Edmunds is key if that kind of system is to function effectively.
There is some promise in the secondary too. Jaquon Brisker was excellent as a rookie in 2022, with his 28 defensive stops ranking 10th amongst all safeties. He pairs nicely with Eddie Jackson, who was one of the few standout players on an otherwise disappointing Bears team in 2022. They do however need to see more from a young cornerback room that struggled noticeably last season and that was a big reason they ranked dead last in passing EPA.
There is also a real concern about whether they have enough up front to consistently get at opposing quarterbacks. The addition of Yannick Ngakoue will certainly help, but they don’t really have much else. They will be relying on some combination of DeMarcus Walker, Trevis Gipson, and Rasheem Green, none of whom ranked above 90th in pressures last season. For a scheme that tends not to blitz and rely on pressure from the front four, that is more than a little worrying.
Prediction
After a very rough 2022 season, things are certainly improving in Chicago. The added talent around Justin Fields will help, especially in the form of DJ Moore. With that being said, the lingering concerns on defense means they will need their young quarterback to take a huge leap as a passer if they are to be anything more than an also-ran in the NFC this season.
