The offseason in the NFC North is sure to be interesting. All four of the teams are in negative cap space and each have some big names hitting free agency. The Packers look like clear favourites for the division again in 2021 and should be one of the leading Super Bowl contenders. As for the rest of the division, both the Vikings and Bears are seemingly in limbo between a playoff hunt and a full-scale rebuild. The Lions look to be starting from scratch again and 2021 looks like it could be another difficult season.
Green Bay Packers
Biggest need: CB
Other needs: OT, LB, WR
Projected 2021 Cap Space: -$11.4 million (sixth least in the NFL)
Notable free agents: Aaron Jones, RB | Corey Linsley, IOL | Kevin King, CB | Jamaal Williams, RB
The Packers’ offense was electric last season, but their defense continued to underwhelm. It ended up costing them the NFC Championship game, with several big mistakes against Tom Brady and the Bucs. The loss saw the departure of defensive coordinator Mike Pettine, and sealed the fate of impending free agent Kevin King. Green Bay have brought Joe Barry over from the Rams as their new defensive coordinator, and he brings with him their split safety, zone-heavy scheme. If this is going to work in Green Bay they need to add more talent at corner opposite Jaire Alexander. Given their cap situation, it may be difficult to make a move in free agency. The draft is their best bet, with players like Asante Samuel Jr. or Greg Newsome representing great fits.
The Packers are also likely to be considering their options at offensive tackle this offseason. David Bakhtiari has the left side locked down, but things are less clear at right tackle. Rick Wagner has already been released as the Packers try to save some cap space. This leaves Billy Turner as the next man up. Turner has played primarily as a guard for the Packers and struggled when required to fill in at right tackle this season. He played seven games there, allowed 17 pressures and two sacks, with a PFF pass blocking grade of 59.2.
Linebacker is once again on the agenda, as it seemingly is every offseason for the Packers. Christian Kirksey was a disappointment in his one season in Green Bay and leaves second-year players Krys Barnes and Kamal Martin as the presumptive starters. Joe Barry has spoken about the importance of the position in his defensive scheme and they may look to address it in the later rounds with a player like Chazz Surratt. The Packers look to also be considering their options at receiver, particularly in the slot. They lack a genuine difference maker there and should look to utilise this deep class in the later rounds.
Chicago Bears
Biggest need: QB
Other needs: OT, IOL, WR
Projected 2021 Cap Space: -$6.9 million (seventh least in the NFL)
Notable free agents: Allen Robinson, WR | Mitchell Trubisky, QB |Germain Ifedi, IOL | Tashaun Gipson, S
Once again, the Bears find themselves in need of a solution at quarterback. They tried and failed spectacularly to fix it last year with the signing of Nick Foles. Chicago are tied into his contract for at least one more season, but at this point he looks like he will only be their backup in 2021. Mitchell Trubisky is a free agent and if the Bears are sensible, they should let him walk. It is difficult to see where they go. Ryan Pace and Matt Nagy need immediate results with their jobs on the line, so there is little chance of investing in a rookie. There are a number of options in free agency, but Chicago don’t have the cap space to make any kind of move.
Regardless of who ends up under center, the next job on the agenda will be fixing the offensive line. Charles Leno wasn’t great at left tackle, allowing 42 pressures, which ranked 7th in the NFL. Given the Bears’ cap situation they may view him as a cut candidate. The same can be said for Bobby Massie at right tackle, whose playing time has been limited by injuries over the past two seasons. This uncertainty extends to the interior of their line too. Per PFF, their highest graded pass protector along the interior was Alex Bars. His 61.2 grade ranked just 66th across the NFL. Players like Cody Whitehair and James Daniels are serviceable enough, but Chicago need to find more consistency.
The other big area of need is at receiver. Allen Robinson has been one of the NFL’s best wideouts over the past few years, despite consistently poor quarterback play. He is hitting free agency this summer and has indicated that he wants to play elsewhere next season. This leaves second-year player Darnell Mooney as the team’s WR1 for 2021, and whilst he showed promise as a rookie, Chicago will want more talent around him. It looks like they are considering the franchise tag on Robinson, but if they don’t use it they may want to pick up a receiver in the first or second round of the draft.
Minnesota Vikings
Biggest need: EDGE
Other needs: IDL, IOL, TE
Projected 2021 Cap Space: -$4 million (ninth least in the NFL)
Notable free agents: Anthony Harris, S | Dakota Dozier, IOL | Eric Wilson, LB
Despite all the talk of a rebuild, the Vikings are in reality locked into Kirk Cousins for at least one more season. In truth, Cousins and the offense were pretty effective last season and ranked 11th in EPA per play. The same cannot be said for the defense though. Nowhere was this more apparent than at edge rusher. With Danielle Hunter out for the season, Ifeadi Odenigbo led the unit with just 42 total pressures. Hunter’s return will be a huge boost to the defense, but the Vikings front seven is massively over-reliant on him right now. Getting another pass rushing threat opposite him would significantly elevate the quality of this defense.
It was a similar story on the interior of their defensive line last season too. Per PFF, their highest graded player was Armon Watts, with just a 60.7 grade. Jaleel Johnson is an impending free agent, but Minnesota will be getting Michael Pierce back after he opted out in 2020. That will help, but just like at edge rusher they need more than one player they can rely on. They may also want to consider their options on the other side of the trenches, particularly along the interior offensive line. Garrett Bradbury and Dakota Dozier were both liabilities in pass protection this season, allowing a combined 75 pressures. A player like Wyatt Davis in the second round could be a great option.
It will also be interesting to see what the Vikings do at tight end. They recently made the decision to release Kyle Rudolph, saving $5 million in cap space as a result. This leaves Irv Smith as the clear TE1 on the roster, with only Tyler Conklin behind him. Smith is clearly a talented player, but the Vikings offense has been reliant on two tight end sets for a number of years and they need more depth. The used multiple tight ends on 34 per cent of snaps last season, the fifth most in the NFL. If they don’t address it, this may signal a move to more three receiver formations. If that is the case, they need to add some more quality behind Adam Thielen and Justin Jefferson.
Detroit Lions
Biggest need: WR
Other needs: LB, EDGE, CB
Projected 2021 Cap Space: -$6.8 million (eighth least in the NFL)
Notable free agents: Kenny Golladay, WR | Marvin Jones, WR | Duron Harmon, S | Romeo Okwara, EDGE
The rebuild has begun in Detroit, but it won’t be as straightforward as it is for the likes of Jacksonville and the Jets. The Lions have one of the worst rosters in the NFL, yet somehow find themselves $6.8 million over the cap. The big question they need to answer this offseason is what they do at wide receiver. Both Marvin Jones and Kenny Golladay are set to hit free agency, and right now the Lions don’t have the cap space to bring either of them back. Danny Amendola and Mohamed Sanu are also leaving this summer. This leaves Quintez Cephus and Geronimo Allison as the only receivers left on the Lions’ roster in 2021. I wouldn’t be surprised if the Lions used their No. 7 overall pick to get their WR1 of the future.
As for their other needs, they are all on defense. Detroit were the worst defense in the NFL last season, ranking 32nd in EPA allowed per play. They were equally atrocious against the run and the pass and need help at all three levels of their defense. New defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn should change things up and Detroit will move towards using more split safety coverages in 2021. An important spot in this kind of scheme is linebacker and the Lions need more investment at the position. Jamie Collins had a poor first season in Detroit, whilst both Reggie Ragland and Jahlani Tavai struggled. Tavai posted a PFF grade of 32.1, which ranked as the fifth lowest mark by any defensive player in the NFL.
Edge rusher is another notable need. Romeo Okwara had a good 2020 season, but is an impending free agent and it is difficult to see the Lions being able to bring him back. Everson Griffen is also hitting free agency, leaving Detroit with Trey Flowers and little else. The edge rushers remaining on the roster in 2021 combined for just 31 pressures this season. Their ineffective pass rush put plenty of strain on their secondary, but Detroit will still feel they could do with more quality on the back end. They will be hopeful that Jeffrey Okudah will take a leap in his second year, but they need more than one good option. This year’s cornerback class is pretty deep and there should be some good options available for Detroit on Day 2.
