2021 NFL Mock Draft 3.0

With the draft less than a month away and the majority of free agency moves already made, it is time for another mock draft! The 49ers’ decision to trade up to No. 3 overall has dominated the draft debate in recent days and changed the dynamic of the first round. As always, this mock draft reflects what I would do as the GM of each team and it is not a prediction of what will happen on 29th April. It included another blockbuster trade and in the top ten and an interesting potential player trade at No. 21.

1. Jacksonville Jaguars – Trevor Lawrence | QB Clemson

No surprises here. This is the easiest pick of the draft and the first round really starts with the Jets at No. 2. It is easy to see why Lawrence is regarded as the best quarterback prospect in a generation. He processes the game incredibly quickly and had easily the fastest average time to throw of any draft eligible quarterback. He combines this with prototypical arm strength and accuracy, as well as ideal athletic ability to make him a threat as a runner. There’s no point in overthinking this pick.

2. New York Jets – Zach Wilson | QB, BYU

Sam Darnold’s time with the Jets is all but over. The only question left is whether or not they keep him as a backup in 2021 or look to recoup some draft capital in a trade this offseason. Wilson is a top prospect who would be a perfect fit in Mike LaFleur’s play action-heavy offense. Per PFF, Wilson was the highest graded quarterback in college football on play action passes, averaging 12.6 yards per attempt whilst throwing 20 touchdowns and no picks. He offers elite accuracy and the ability to make magic happen outside of structure. Whilst there will be some concerns about the level of competition he faced at BYU, he can make all of the throws you want from a draft prospect.

3. San Francisco 49ers (from Miami) – Justin Fields | QB, Ohio State

The 49ers made the blockbuster move to come up to No. 3 overall and get their quarterback of the future. I think that both Fields and Lance could be good fits in Shanahan’s offense, but Fields is by far the more pro-ready prospect. He offers elite accuracy at all levels of the field and it would be exciting to see how Shanahan can work with a mobile quarterback. Fields needs to improve as a processor and get the ball out quicker, but if there is one scheme that can help him to do that it is San Francisco’s.

4. New England Patriots (via Atlanta) – Trey Lance | QB, North Dakota State

This would be a huge trade, but all of the Patriots’ offseason moves suggest they are making one last playoff push under Bill Belichick. This wouldn’t be a cheap trade, but it makes sense for both sides. The Falcons are tied into Matt Ryan for another two years after his restructure and getting a tonne of draft capital instead would be a smart move. Belichick won’t be around forever and a player like Lance could but this team back in playoff contention. He offers elite arm strength and is excellent as a runner. With the signings of Hunter Henry and Jonnu Smith, Belichick is clearly looking towards a run-heavy offense built around heavier personnel packages. This would be the perfect situation for Lance, who excelled in a similar system at North Dakota State.

5. Cincinnati Bengals – Ja’Marr Chase | WR, LSU

With Penei Sewell on the board I would tempted to take him here. That said, a receiver with the ability to create separation helps a quarterback as much as a tackle does and re-uniting Burrow and Chase makes too much sense. The two set collegiate records together in 2019 and he would elevate an offense whose leading receiver is currently Tyler Boyd. Chase is a versatile receiver who can win with speed and physicality. He would also give the team a legitimate deep threat. His 24 deep catches in 2019 were the most by any collegiate receiver since 2014.

6. Miami Dolphins (via Philadelphia) – Penei Sewell | OT, Oregon

The Dolphins could consider a receiver here, but with the signing of Will Fuller, tackle looks to be a bigger need. Austin Jackson was disappointing as a rookie and allowed 38 pressures, the fifth most amongst left tackles. Miami need to do a better job of protecting Tua and there is no player better equipped to do so than Sewell. We didn’t see him play in 2020, but Sewell’s sophomore tape was dominant. He is an excellent pass protector who allowed just 15 pressures on his 706 pass blocking snaps. He’s even better as a run blocker, where he demonstrates some of the best movement skills you will ever see from a player of his size.

7. Detroit Lions – Jaylen Waddle | WR, Alabama

The Lions already look like they are set to tank in 2021. They’ve lost both Kenny Golladay and Marvin Jones in free agency and have so far replaced them with Tyrell Williams and Breshad Perriman. They clearly need a difference maker at the position and Waddle would tick that box. He offers elite deep speed and the ability to consistently create separation. Prior to his injury this season he was Alabama’s leading receiver, with 557 yards through four games at an average of 22.3 yards per catch. At 5’10” and 182 lbs he isn’t the biggest receiver, but he has the tools to be a productive WR1 in the NFL.

8. Carolina Panthers – Kyle Pitts | TE, Florida

The Panthers miss out on the top four quarterback prospects and whilst Mac Jones is still on the board, I don’t think he is worthy of a top ten pick. The Panthers can instead take the best player available and fill a major need at tight end. In 2020, Ian Thomas led the position with just 20 catches for 145 yards. Pitts would be a huge improvement from day one and would give the Panthers a true mismatch weapon. He had 770 yards and 12 touchdowns in just eight games this season, with no drops on 43 catchable targets. He is easily the best tight end prospect in a generation.

9. Denver Broncos – Micah Parsons | LB, Penn State

In this scenario the Broncos find themselves in a similar spot to the Panthers, having missed out on the top four quarterbacks. They have addressed their need at cornerback this offseason and can now prioritise improving at linebacker. Josey Jewell and Alexander Johnson were solid enough in 2020, but both are free agents next summer. Parsons has some off-field concerns but he is still the best defensive player in the class. He is an elite athlete, running a 4.39 40-yard dash, and excels as a run defender. This would be a welcome addition in a Broncos defense that ranked 20th in rushing EPA per play in 2020.

10. Dallas Cowboys – Patrick Surtain II | CB, Alabama

The Cowboys could address a number of positions at this spot, but there is a reason they keep being mocked corners. They were one of just four teams in 2020 who didn’t have a single corner allow a QBR lower than 95.0. With an impressive pro day performance and news of Caleb Farley’s back surgery, Surtain has assured himself as being CB1 come the draft. Surtain has three solid years as a starter in Nick Saban’s defense and is the most polished technician at the position in this year’s draft. He might not be the most agile corner, but he has everything else needed to be a quality NFL starter.

11. New York Giants – Christian Darrisaw | OT, Virginia Tech

With the addition of Kenny Golladay, the Giants’ need at wide receiver no longer looks so desperate. The same cannot be said for their offensive tackle situation. Andrew Thomas and Cameron Fleming allowed a combined 92 pressures in 2020, the second most by any tackle pairing in the NFL. Nate Solder is returning from his opt out, but he wasn’t much better in 2019, allowing a league-high 56 pressures. Darrisaw would immediately improve things and could start from day one. He has the combination of power and athleticism that you want in a tackle and he’s excellent out in space.

12. Philadelphia Eagles (via Miami) – Devonta Smith | WR, Alabama

The Eagles seem to be putting all of their effort into building around Jalen Hurts and there is no better way of doing that than adding weapons at receiver. Smith became the first receiver to win the Heisman trophy since 1991 after racking up 1,856 yards and 23 touchdowns on 117 catches. At 6’1″ and 170 lbs there will be concerns about Smith’s frame and ability to deal with physicality at the line, but he is a smooth route runner who consistently creates separation downfield and that should translate well to the NFL.

13. Los Angeles Chargers – Rashawn Slater | OT, Northwestern

The Chargers’ offensive line was nothing short of a disaster in 2020. According to ESPN, the team ranked 31st in pass block win rate and 32nd in run block win rate. They have already made a number of additions this offseason, but could still do with a quality left tackle to protect Justin Herbert. Slater would be a great fit. His 2019 tape was incredibly impressive and he held his own against the likes of Chase Young and A.J. Epenesa. There will be some concerns about his limited length and issues against bigger power rushers, but Slater is the most pro-ready tackle prospect in this year’s class.

14. Minnesota Vikings – Kwity Paye | EDGE, Michigan

The Vikings could go in a number of directions at this spot but getting a top quality edge makes a tonne of sense. With Danielle Hunter out, they were unable to generate consistent pressure up front. Their 19.6 per cent pressure rate ranked 29th in the NFL in 2020. Hunter’s return will help, but they can’t rely on one man to do all the work. Paye combines prototypical edge size with legitimate explosiveness, running a 4.57 40-yard dash at 261 lbs. He was unplayable in 2020, generating 22 pressures on just 138 pass rushing snaps. His 26.5 per cent pass rush win rate leads the entire draft class.

15. Atlanta Falcons – Jaelan Phillips | EDGE, Miami

The Falcons’ lack of quality pass rushers was a big reason for their lacklustre defense in 2020. Dante Fowler led the team with just 30 pressures, which ranked just 85th in the NFL. Their inability to get to the quarterback put a tonne of strain on their secondary and a player like Phillips would help to remedy that. He is the most polished pass rusher in this class and is stout against the run. If it weren’t for his history of medical issues he would be the clear top edge in this class and likely a top ten pick.

16. Arizona Cardinals – Jaycee Horn | CB, South Carolina

As things stand, Malcolm Butler and Robert Alford are the Cardinals’ starting boundary corners in 2021. They clearly need to invest at the position and Horn would be a great fit in Arizona. Defensive coordinator Vance Joseph runs a lot of man coverage concepts and likes to press receivers at the line. There is not a corner in this class who fits that bill better than Horn. He allowed a completion rate of just 33.3 per cent in 2020 and gave up a passer rating of 54.9. He needs to tone down his aggressiveness downfield, but he has the tools to be a great starting corner.

17. Las Vegas Raiders – Caleb Farley | CB, Virginia Tech

The Raiders’ defense was awful in 2020, ranking 29th in EPA per play. The addition of Yannick Ngakoue should help to provide more pressure up front, but they need a more reliable secondary. Taking a player like Farley, who was arguably the CB1 in this class before his back surgery, is a no-brainer. Whilst his injury issues are something of a concern, what he offers on the field is fantastic. His combination of size, speed, and ball production are unrivalled in this class. He allowed just 257 yards on his 396 coverage snaps in 2019 and a passer rating of 26.8, the lowest of any draft eligible corner.

18. Miami Dolphins – Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah | LB, Notre Dame

Dolphins fans might want to address receiver or running back at this spot, but those are both deep position groups and good options will be available at the top of the second round. Instead they can prioritise their need at linebacker after they cut Kyle Van Noy. Owusu-Koramoah offers the versatility required in Brian Flores’ defense. He played the ‘overhang’ role at Notre Dame and was often asked to shift to the slot and cover receivers in man coverage. He is also a solid run defender who has the short area quickness to be a threat as a blitzer.

19. Washington Football Team – Mac Jones | QB, Alabama

In the space of a season, Washington have turned their roster from one of the worst in the NFL to one that could make another run at the NFC East title in 2021. They have Ryan Fitzpatrick on board but they haven’t found their long-term answer at the position. Jones could be that answer. Whilst he doesn’t have the high ceiling of the top four quarterbacks, he projects as a quality starter at the next level. He showcases great processing ability and logged an 84.2 per cent adjusted completion rate in 2020, the highest in college football.

20. Chicago Bears – Samuel Cosmi | OT, Texas

Bears fans might not be happy with Andy Dalton at quarterback, but the best thing they can do now is make sure he is protected in the pocket. The team released Bobby Massie as a cap casualty and Charles Leno is set to hit free agency next summer. Cosmi could come in and start from day one. He is a tremendous athlete, with his Relative Athletic Score (RAS) of 9.99 being the second highest score of any tackle since 1987. Cosmi stands out as a polished pass protector, having allowed just 22 pressures across his last 962 pass blocking snaps.

21. Baltimore Ravens (via Indianapolis) – Rashod Bateman | WR, Minnesota

In this scenario I have the Colts trading their 2021 first round pick for Orlando Brown Jr., filling their need at left tackle. The pick works for the Ravens too, as they get to select the receiver that their offense so desparately needs. Whilst the addition of Sammy Watkins should help, he isn’t the game changer that Bateman can be. The former Minnesota wideout is an excellent route runner, with the ability to consistently get off press coverage. Whilst he isn’t the most dynamic athlete, he is a polished player who can also create yardage after the catch.

22. Tennessee Titans – Asante Samuel Jr. | CB, Florida State

The Titans’ secondary was a problem in 2020 and it looks even worse heading into the draft. They cut both Adoree’ Jackson and Malcolm Butler, and the signing of Janoris Jenkins won’t be enough to move the needle. Samuel was an elite playmaker at Florida State and logged a 19.7 per cent forced incompletion rate throughout his career. He allowed a passer rating of just 46.2 in 2020, the fourth best amongst draft eligible corners. Whilst he lacks prototypical boundary cornerback size, he has the physicality to hold up there in the NFL.

23. New York Jets (from Seattle) – Jayson Oweh | EDGE, Penn State

The Jets get their quarterback of the future at No. 2 and with this pick they can sort out a perennial issue at edge rusher. Tarrell Basham led the team with 32 pressures in 2020, which ranked just 48th at the position. They haven’t actually had a single edge rusher register more than 40 pressures since 2013, the longest drought in the NFL. The addition of Carl Lawson should help, but getting another quality player on the other side of the line would be a great move. Oweh might not have had any sacks in 2020, but he was a consistently disruptive pass rusher at Penn State. He posted an 18.4 per cent pass rush win rate and had 20 pressures on his 171 pass rushing snaps.

24. Pittsburgh Steelers – Teven Jenkins | OT, Oklahoma State

The Steelers would be out of the quarterback market at this spot so they can instead look to fix their offensive line. Alejandro Villanueva and Maurkice Pouncey have both moved on and they are in desperate need of help along the line. Their running game struggled badly in 2020 and a big part of that was their offensive line, which ranked 32nd in Adjusted Line Yards. Jenkins would help to solve that problem immediately. A three-year starter at Oklahoma State, he’s one of the toughest run blockers in the class. He is solid as a pass protector too, allowing just 11 pressures across his last 623 pass blocking snaps.

25. Jacksonville Jaguars (from Los Angeles Rams) – Trevon Moehrig | S, TCU

The Jags’ secondary was a disaster in 2020 and Urban Meyer has said that revamping the unit will be one of his biggest offseason priorities. They have made a number of moves already, but safety continues to look like the weak link on this roster. For that reason they would do well to get a player like Moehrig in the first round. He is easily the best safety prospect in the class and this season he won the Jim Thorpe award as the best defensive back in college football. Moehrig has the ideal combination of athleticism and ball production and has the ability to play slot corner if needed.

26. Cleveland Browns – Azeez Ojulari | EDGE, Georgia

Despite having one of the league’s best edge rushers in Myles Garrett, the Browns still only ranked 24th in pressure rate in 2020. With Olivier Vernon gone, they need to add a complementary option opposite Garrett, and Ojulari would be the perfect fit. He is the best pure speed rusher in the class and would give offensive lines another thing to deal with on top of Garrett’s power. His hand usage is excellent and he has the ability to test the depth of the pocket on every play.

27. Baltimore Ravens – Alijah Vera-Tucker | IOL, USC

The Ravens addressed their need at wide receiver earlier in the draft and they can fix their offensive line here. Vera-Tucker offers the versatility to play tackle or guard and could potentially serve as a replacement for Orlando Brown Jr. at right tackle. If not, he would still be a quality addition along the interior and help to make up for the loss of Marshal Yanda last offseason. He isn’t the greatest athlete in the draft, but his ability as a run blocker would fit well in Baltimore.

28. New Orleans Saints – Elijah Moore | WR, Ole Miss

The Saints could go in a number of directions with this pick, but it is clear that they need more talent behind Michael Thomas at wide receiver. With 4.35 speed and elite ability after the catch, Moore would give them another offensive weapon for teams to worry about. Despite being just 5’9″ and 178 lbs, he offers real toughness and was surprisingly effective in contested catch situations. Ole Miss also used him on sweeps, screens, and as a runner out of the backfield. This is the kind of versatile skillset Sean Payton can maximise.

29. Green Bay Packers – Greg Newsome II | CB, Northwestern

Even with the re-signing of Kevin King, the Packers desperately need help at cornerback. There aren’t many better fits for Joe Barry’s defense that Newsome. Whilst his small sample size and issues with injuries could be a concern, Newsome put out some elite tape in 2020. He is a superb zone corner, with ideal change of direction ability and the smarts to make plays on the ball. He allowed a passer rating of just 31.7 this season, the best amongst draft-eligible corners. Newsome didn’t allow a single completion of 20+ yards in 2020.

30. Buffalo Bills – Ronnie Perkins | EDGE, Oklahoma

The Bills don’t have any glaring needs on their roster and that leaves them free to address a number of spots. One area that makes a tonne of sense is edge rusher. Jerry Hughes and Mario Addison did a decent job in 2020, but they are 32 and 33 years old respectively. Buffalo has 2020 second rounder A.J. Epenesa waiting in the wings, but having two talented young edge defenders is a smart move. Perkins is an explosive pass rusher, whose 24.7 per cent pass rush win rate ranks second in the class. Despite being a smaller edge, he holds up well against the run too.

31. Kansas City Chiefs – Dillon Radunz | OT, North Dakota State

After the disastrous Super Bowl performance it was obvious that the Chiefs needed help at tackle. After the decision to cut Eric Fisher and Mitchell Schwartz, that need became even more urgent. Radunz would fill the hole at left tackle and would be a solid blindside protector for Mahomes. He is an incredible athlete who is excellent out in space. He is also one of the best run blockers in the class, with surprising power for his 6’5″ and 304 lbs frame.

32. Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Christian Barmore | IDL, Alabama

The Bucs are running it back and re-signed all of their big names. Whilst running back may be their obvious need, they can address that in the later rounds. Barmore is the best player left on the board and is the clear standout in the interior defensive line group. He was an excellent pass rusher for the Crimson Tide in 2020, racking up 39 pressures and eight sacks on his 342 pass rushing snaps. His best performances came against top competition and he would provide the Bucs with even more talent along an impressive defensive line.