QB, North Dakota State
Height: 6’3″
Weight: 224 lbs
Class: rs-Sophomore
Lance is one of the most interesting and exciting prospects in the draft. In just one season as a starter he came from obscurity to being considered a top ten pick in next year’s draft. With the ideal combination of size, arm talent, and speed, he is one of the most exciting quarterbacks in this class.
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Strengths
Lance is coming of an incredibly impressive 2019 season. He won the Walter Payton Award, the FCS Heisman equivalent, becoming the first freshman to do so. In total he passed for 2,786 yards and 28 touchdowns, adding 1,100 yards and 14 touchdowns as a runner. He didn’t throw a single interception and took great care of the ball, with just four turnover worthy plays all year.
Lance has everything you want in terms of arm strength, with excellent velocity and accuracy. He is comfortable letting it loose and was responsible for 16 big-time throws in 2019. He posted a PFF deep passing grade of 93.0 and has the ability and vision to make any throw. His pocket presence is excellent too and he is good at understanding when to stand in and when to flush out and makes plays with his legs.
Another huge plus point for Lance is his athleticism. He was a legitimate weapon on designed runs and is one of the best dual threat quarterbacks in this class. In 2019 he averaged eight designed runs per game and was tough to bring down, with 40 forced missed tackles. For context, this was the same number as Georgia running back D’Andre Swift.
Weaknesses
Whilst there will be some concerns about the level of competition Lance has faced in the FCS, the big question mark surrounding him as a prospect is sample size. He has just one season as a starter and whilst he was incredibly impressive in 2019, he was protected by NDSU’s run-heavy offense. He averaged just 18 passes per game and has just 289 career attempts, both numbers way below what you would expect from a first round prospect. The last quarterback drafted in the first round with under 300 career attempts was fellow NDSU alum Carson Wentz in 2016.
From a technical standpoint he is still a little raw and could do with adding some nuance to his game. He hasn’t shown much in terms of manipulating safeties and his accuracy is still pretty inconsistent. His ability as a runner also meant he was never really forced to make tight window throws and this is a concern when projecting to the NFL. If none of his receivers were open he would scramble rather than take the risk.
Bottom Line
Whilst there are question marks surrounding level of competition faced and his limited sample size, Lance was so impressive in 2019 that it is difficult to give too much weight to these concerns. Only three FCS quarterbacks have been drafted in the first round in the modern era but when April comes around, you can expect Lance to make it four.
