With the 2021 NFL Draft now concluded these are my grades for each pick from the first round. These are just initial thoughts on each pick and only time will tell which of these players prove to be significant to their respective franchises in years to come. I hope you enjoy.
1. Jacksonville Jaguars – Trevor Lawrence | QB, Clemson
Grade: A+
This is the easiest grade of the entire first round. This pick has been locked in ever since the Jags were confirmed as holders of the No. 1 overall pick back in December. Lawrence is the clear consensus No. 1 overall player in the 2021 class and the best quarterback prospect in a decade. It will be exciting to see what he and Urban Meyer can do together in Jacksonville.
2. New York Jets – Zach Wilson | QB, BYU
Grade: A+
As consolation prizes go, Zach Wilson is a damn good one. Whilst I could see the merit in picking Justin Fields at this spot, I don’t think there is much to criticise about the move for Wilson. He was one of the most accurate quarterbacks in college football last season and is an ideal fit for Mike LaFleur’s wide zone offense. The AFC East could be one of the most exciting divisions in football next year.
3. San Francisco 49ers – Trey Lance | QB, North Dakota State
Grade: B-
The 49ers have got their quarterback of the future. Lance has all of the traits to develop into a quality player and it will be interesting to see how Kyle Shanahan employs his mobility in the running game. Lance is very much a project though, with major accuracy issues and a really limited sample size. I struggle to see how they looked past Fields at this spot. Lance is a high variance quarterback, with genuine boom or bust potential.
4. Atlanta Falcons – Kyle Pitts | TE, Florida
Grade: A+
In an ideal world the Falcons would have traded down from this spot and picked up future draft capital. That said, all reports suggest there were no takers so you can’t really knock them for staying put. In Pitts they get the best pass catcher in this year’s draft and a genuine mismatch weapon. Combining him with Julio Jones and Calvin Ridley will give them one of the best receiving corps in the NFL and it will be exciting to see how it all comes together next season.
5. Cincinnati Bengals – Ja’Marr Chase | WR, LSU
Grade: A+
The Bengals could have taken Penei Sewell or Ja’Marr Chase and both picks would have received an A+ grade. Chase is an elite receiver prospect who will be their WR1 from Week 1. He has the ideal combination of speed and physicality and gets to re-unite with his college quarterback in Joe Burrow. Some will have concerns about pass protection in Cincinnati, but a wide open receiver helps a quarterback as much as a stout left tackle.
6. Miami Dolphins – Jaylen Waddle | WR, Alabama
Grade: B+
The Dolphins signalled their intention to build around Tua with the drafting of his former Crimson Tide teammate. Waddle is an electric receiver with the quickness and burst to win at all three levels of the field. There is a lot to like about the pick, but Miami’s decision to trade a future first rounder to get back up to No. 6 looks like a poor move in hindsight. Waddle should be a great player for the Dolphins, but he was he worth two first round picks?
7. Detroit Lions – Penei Sewell | OT, Oregon
Grade: A
The first round could not have gone any better for the Lions. In Sewell they secured the best tackle prospect in recent years and he should be a cornerstone of their franchise for years to come. He is elite as a pass protector and is a mauler in the running game. He was the first sophomore in college football history to win the Outland Trophy for best lineman and he is still just 20 years old. The only thing stopping this from being an A+ was their decision to pass on Justin Fields and stick with Jared Goff.
8. Carolina Panthers – Jaycee Horn | CB, South Carolina
Grade: C
This was the first real headscratcher of the first round. Horn is a talented player, but I don’t see him anywhere near CB1 territory. His 2020 tape was impressive but his numbers were propped up by the Auburn game. Through his six other games he didn’t have a single forced incompletion and allowed a passer rating of 95.5. The scheme fit also seems odd. Horn excels as a press man corner, but the Panthers played press coverage at the lowest rate in the NFL last season. They also ran zone defense on over 75 per cent of their snaps last seasons. The grade takes a hit due to them passing on a quarterback too.
9. Denver Broncos – Patrick Surtain | CB, Alabama
Grade: B
Cornerback was a weakness for the Broncos only a few months ago. Now they look to have one of the best secondaries in football. Surtain is the most polished technician at corner in this year’s class and had three years of standout production at Alabama. He isn’t the most agile player on the field, but he consistently gets the job done. Much like the Panthers though, it is difficult to see how they passed on Justin Fields. They enter 2021 with the worst quarterback situation in the entire NFL.
10. Philadelphia Eagles – Devonta Smith | WR, Alabama
Grade: A
You don’t often see inter-divisional trades, but this worked out well for both parties. The Eagles need more weapons on offense and managed to jump in front of the Giants and snag the last of the top tier receivers. Smith’s size will be a concern, but there is no doubting his talent or production. He is a smooth route runner who can win in a number of ways and should be an immediate impact starter in Philly. That being said, they are another team who could have considered Fields at this spot.
11. Chicago Bears – Justin Fields | QB, Ohio State
Grade: A+
This was one of the best moves of the night. Chicago managed to snag their quarterback of the future whilst giving up relatively little in terms of future draft capital. Fields is an excellent player who should have gone inside the top five. His processing speed is a tick slow, but he does everything else to a high level. He is accurate, with great arm strength and mobility. From a value perspective, this might be the best pick in the first round.
12. Dallas Cowboys – Micah Parsons | LB, Penn State
Grade: A
Linebacker didn’t look like a major need for the Cowboys but they secured a really talented player in Parsons. He was the clear top defensive prospect on my board and will be a welcome addition on a defense that struggled in 2020. He is an elite run defender and one of the most reliable open field tacklers in the class. Parsons was a former five-star recruit as a defensive end and it wouldn’t be a surprise to see Dallas use him off the edge as a pass rusher.
13. Los Angeles Chargers – Rashawn Slater | OT, Northwestern
Grade: A+
Offensive line has been an issue with the Chargers for years and they look to have finally sorted things out. Getting Slater in addition to their free agency moves should see Justin Herbert well protected in the pocket for years to come. Slater is an incredible athlete, with really smooth technique in his pass sets. Whilst he lacks ideal size and length, he makes up for it with his polish and allowed just five pressures on his 355 pass blocking snaps in 2019.
14. New York Jets – Alijah Vera-Tucker | IOL, USC
Grade: C+
Getting a quality player is obviously the aim of the draft, but doing so at the right spot is also important. There is no questioning the quality of Vera-Tucker and he should be a great starter in New York for years to come. The big question though is whether it was worth trading two third round picks and taking an interior lineman inside the top 15, particularly given the major holes elsewhere on the roster. They may view Vera-Tucker as a tackle, but is so why would they pass on Christian Darrisaw?
15. New England Patriots – Mac Jones | QB, Alabama
Grade: C
The hysteria surrounding Mac Jones got a little out of hand in the pre-draft process and in the end he fell to the Patriots without them having to trade up. He offers great accuracy and is one of the quickest processors in the class. He lacks the high end traits of the top four quarterbacks though, and it is difficult to get too excited about his ceiling. This is a solid pick, but I don’t see Jones developing into a top tier NFL quarterback.
16. Arizona Cardinals – Zaven Collins | LB, Tulsa
Grade: C
The Cardinals are clearly intent on building a quality front seven this offseason and Collins gives them an exciting linebacker pairing with last year’s first rounder Isaiah Simmons. He is an outstanding blitzer who will fit nicely in Vance Joseph’s scheme and he’s surprisingly effective in coverage given his size. That said, I don’t see him as being worthy of a top 20 pick and I can’t help feeling that they could have addressed their dire needs in the secondary at this point.
17. Las Vegas Raiders – Alex Leatherwood | OT, Alabama
Grade: E
The Raiders seem to have made over-drafting a player in the first round an annual tradition. According to The Athletic’s Consensus Board, Leatherwood was the 45th ranked prospect. It is really difficult to understand what they see in Leatherwood that makes him worthy of the No. 17 overall pick and this is compounded by the fact that Darrisaw and Teven Jenkins were still available. Leatherwood has the size and length you want in a tackle but gives up the edge far too easily.
18. Miami Dolphins – Jaelan Phillips | EDGE, Miami
Grade: A
The Dolphins were in dire need of a quality pass rusher and they got one here. Phillips comes with obvious injury red flags, but there is no questioning his talent. He is the most polished pass rusher in this year’s class, with a wide variety of moves and excellent hand usage. He does a nice job of setting the edge against the run too. Phillips enters the draft on the back of an exceptional 2020 season that saw him rack up 42 pressures on just 284 pass rushing snaps.
19. Washington Football Team – Jamin Davis | LB, Kentucky
Grade: C-
It is easy to see why a player like Davis would be so appealing as a prospect. His athletic traits are off the charts and has all of the tools to be a versatile linebacker in the modern NFL. That said, we didn’t really see enough in college for him to be worthy of a top 20 pick. Davis only became a starter in 2020 and has just 837 career snaps to his name. Whilst he was a solid run defender and tackler, he benefitted from a simplistic coverage role in Kentucky. Picking him over Owusu-Koramoah seems like an odd move too.
20. New York Giants – Kadarius Toney | WR, Florida
Grade: B-
Dave Gettleman surprised everyone with his decision to trade down and he deserves credit for picking up a future first rounder for the Giants. Whilst the process is excellent, the pick at this spot isn’t quite as impressive. Toney was a dynamic weapon in Florida’s offense and is easily one of the most entertaining players to watch in the 2021 class. It just felt like there were a number of better receivers on the board at this point that they could have taken instead.
21. Indianapolis Colts – Kwity Paye | EDGE, Michigan
Grade: A
This was a dream scenario for the Colts as they secured arguably the best edge rusher in the class without having to move from No. 21 overall. They struggled to generate consistent pressure last season and they have since lost Denico Autry and Justin Houston to free agency. Paye is a raw prospect but showed promising signs in 2020. He accounted for 22 pressures on just 138 pass rushing snaps and his 25.8 per cent pass rush win rate ranks second amongst draft-eligible prospects.
22. Tennessee Titans – Caleb Farley | CB, Virginia Tech
Grade: A-
In 2019 the Titans drafted Jeffery Simmons in the first round, despite his recent torn ACL. That gamble paid off and they have taken a similar approach by taking Farley at this spot. His back issues are an obvious worry, but if he can stay healthy he has everything you need to be a shutdown corner in the NFL. Farley was my CB1 for the vast majority of the pre-draft process and he is well worth a gamble at this point in the first round.
23. Minnesota Vikings – Christian Darrisaw | OT, Virginia Tech
Grade: A+
This is up there with the Justin Fields pick for me. Darrisaw was one of the most reliable tackles in college football last season and didn’t allow a single sack or hit on his 293 pass blocking snaps. If the Vikings had taken him at 14 I would have been tempted to give them an A+, so their ability to trade down and still get their guy makes this even more impressive. Darrisaw addresses their glaring need at tackle and should be a reliable presence there for years to come.
24. Pittsburgh Steelers – Najee Harris | RB, Alabama
Grade: D
Harris is a good player but this pick was terrible from a value standpoint. It has been proven time and time again that you do not need to invest large amounts of draft capital in a running back, yet a couple of teams continue to do so. The Steelers have a tonne of holes along their offensive line, which is a far bigger influence on running game production that the back in the backfield. The team ranked 32nd in Adjusted Line Yards last season and could have snagged a top tackle like Teven Jenkins at this spot. Harris won’t move the needle enough to be worth this kind of pick.
25. Jacksonville Jaguars – Travis Etienne | RB, Clemson
Grade: D
The Etienne pick is in a similar boat to the one before it. He is a tremendously talented player, but the process is all wrong. With a roster that went 1-15 last year, the Jags have a tonne of holes to fill at valuable positions, but instead prioritised one of the least valuable positions in football. The Jags are also living proof that you don’t need to invest heavily at running back to have success there. James Robinson was a UDFA in 2020 and went on to account for almost 1,500 scrimmage yards as a rookie. Wasting a first round pick on a running back when they could have taken a top tier tackle, safety, or corner makes little sense.
26. Cleveland Browns – Greg Newsome II | CB, Northwestern
Grade: A+
The Browns have clearly made a point of building up one of the most talented secondaries in football and they add to it here with Newsome. Whilst his sample size was limited in college, Newsome has the fluidity and burst you want from a cornerback. He rarely gets beaten deep and didn’t allow a single completion of 20+ yards last season. His passer rating allowed of 31.7 ranked as the lowest amongst draft-eligible cornerbacks. This is a really smart pick.
27. Baltimore Ravens – Rashod Bateman | WR, Minnesota
Grade: A+
It became increasingly apparent last season that Baltimore need more talent at wide receiver. Bateman gives them a solid weapon who can win from the boundary or the slot. He is the big-bodied receiver that Lamar Jackson needs and should be able to contribute effectively from day one. Bateman is arguably the best route runner in the entire class, with the ability to win at all three levels of the field. He racked up 1,219 yards and averaged 20.3 yards per reception in 2019.
28. New Orleans Saints – Payton Turner | EDGE, Houston
Grade: D
I really like Turner as a prospect, but I don’t think he is anywhere close to being worth a first round pick. He didn’t really break out as a pass rusher until 2020, and this came across just four games. Turner didn’t show the sustained success you want from a Group of Five player and his 16.8 per cent pass rush win rate ranked just 73rd in the country. Turner is the epitome of a project, and you don’t take those kinds of players in the first round.
29. Green Bay Packers – Eric Stokes | CB, Georgia
Grade: C-
The Packers addressed a major need with this pick, but Stokes looks like a reach, particularly with a player like Asante Samuel Jr. still on the board. It is also an odd fit from a scheme perspective. Stokes excelled in a press man role at Georgia, but with the Packers he will be playing mostly off zone. Whilst he has incredible speed and tackling ability, he lacks agility and is incredibly grabby downfield. He could develop into a quality player, but plenty of work required.
30. Buffalo Bills – Gregory Rousseau | EDGE, Miami
Grade: C
Rousseau’s 16 sacks in 2019 initially put him in the conversation to be the top edge in this year’s class, but his opt out really hurt his stock. He is still incredibly raw and lacks the technique to win consistently from the edge. His pro day was poor and he didn’t show the explosiveness that many were expecting. His wins as a pass rusher came primarily from the inside, but he lacks the size to play there in the NFL. Rousseau is another example of a project player and comes with real boom or bust potential.
31. Baltimore Ravens – Jayson Oweh | EDGE, Penn State
Grade: A
The first round could not have gone any better for the Ravens. Whilst they chose not to address their need at tackle they managed to get two quality prospects at their other major positions of need. Oweh’s lack of sacks in 2020 have made the headlines, but he showed he could be consistently disruptive. He racked up an impressive 20 pressures on 171 pass rushing snaps and offers rare athleticism for the position, running a 4.39 40 at 257 lbs. He is also one of the more reliable run defenders in this year’s class.
32. Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Joe Tryon | EDGE, Washington
Grade: E
The Raiders’ decision to reach for Alex Leatherwood got plenty of attention, but the Joe Tryon pick was also a poor move. I had Tryon as the No. 83 ranked prospect in the class and he wasn’t even inside my top ten edge rushers. He has all of the athletic tools you want, but he never managed to put everything together in college. His 16.1 per cent pass rush win rate ranked just 94th in college football in 2019 and almost half of his pressures were unblocked or clean-ups. I struggle to see how the Bucs passed on the likes of Azeez Ojulari and Ronnie Perkins for Tryon.
