Week 3 in the XFL was full of drama and there are some big games coming up this weekend. DC and New York will both be looking to bounce back from poor results and Dallas will host the unbeaten Houston Roughnecks in the game of the weekend. Here are my picks for Week 4.
Los Angeles Wildcats at New York Guardians
Saturday, 2pm ET
Point spread: Wildcats -7.5
Over/Under: 38.5
These two teams could not be coming into Week 4 from more different standpoints. The Wildcats put in the shock performance of Week 3 in their blowout 39-9 victory against the Defenders whilst the Guardians fell to their second loss in two weeks with an abysmal 29-9 loss to the BattleHawks.
I would expect these trends to continue again in Week 4 and the Wildcats should take the win here. There is too much uncertainty around the Guardians at the quarterback position and they have scored just 12 points in their last two games. They have struggled moving the chains and their record of 26 possessions without a touchdown is emblematic of a team that can’t get their offense to click.
I think that New York should at least manage double digit points this week but given how they have played since their opening win against Tampa Bay there is no chance I would take them here. Josh Jackson and the Wildcats seem to be improving week by week and though I wouldn’t expect them to put up six touchdowns like they did against DC, they should have too much for New York. I’d be fairly comfortable taking the under here too.
Picks: Wildcats -7.5, Under
Seattle Dragons at St. Louis BattleHawks
Saturday, 5pm ET
Point spread: Battlehawks -11.5
Over/Under: 38
For the second successive week the BattleHawks come into a game as double digit favourites and they are comfortably the second best team in the league behind Houston. Seattle in contrast have struggled to get going offensively and this looks set to be a tough game for them.
The BattleHawks love to run the ball and have the league’s leading rusher in Matt Jones in the backfield. Jordan Ta’amu has also impressed, with 612 passing yards and five total touchdowns on the season and I just can’t see Seattle outscoring them here. My only cause for concern is that Seattle are a run-first offense coming up against a BattleHawks side that have struggled all season in run defense, allowing 4.96 yards per carry.
I have no doubt that the BattleHawks will win here but would be wary of picking them as 11.5 point favourites. The total is low again here and I’d much rather wager my money on the over in this game given the potency of this BattleHawks offense.
Picks: Dragons +11.5, Over
Houston Roughnecks at Dallas Renegades
Sunday, 4pm ET
Point spread: Roughnecks -3
Over/Under: 50.5
Houston’s Week 3 win against the Vipers was not nearly as comfortable as many expected but they remain the XFL’s only unbeaten team going into Week 4. Dallas have been impressive in recent outings and I think that this is definitely going to be the game of the week.
I’m expecting a close game but I would take the Roughnecks at -3. P.J. Walker is continuing to state his case as the XFL’s MVP, leading the league in both passing (748 yards) and touchdowns (10) and I can’t see Dallas doing enough to stop them winning here. Landry Jones has put up decent yardage in his two starts but has struggled with turnovers and their insistence on passing the ball despite a good running game could cost them here.
The total of 50.5 is high and I think this will finish just under. Dallas have been good on defense all season, never allowing more than 18 points and at some point this Houston offense will slow down slightly from their unsustainable 36.3 points per game average. I think this will be a narrow Houston victory to keep their unbeaten run going.
Picks: Roughnecks -3, Under
DC Defenders at Tampa Bay Vipers
Sunday, 7pm ET
Point spread: Defenders -2.5
Over/Under: 44.5
DC are coming into Week 4 much like New York did last week. They suffered a blowout defeat with Cardale Jones collapsing completely, throwing four picks and finishing with a passer rating of 20.7 before being benched.
Unlike New York though DC have shown substance throughout the season and their loss last week shouldn’t put you off taking them here against a winless Tampa Bay. DC have shown talent on both sides of the ball and will be keen to show that last week’s loss was not a sign of things to come. Cardale Jones simply cannot play as badly as he did against LA last weekend and the Defenders have too much strength at key positions not to secure the bounce-back win here.
Tampa Bay showed that they can put up points at home last week against Houston but I think that the Defenders should have just enough to secure the win here. Both teams will be desperate for the win here for different reasons and I’m expecting a lot of points on the board as a result.
Picks: Defenders -2.5, Over
