On September 8th 2022, Dabo Swinney signed a new contract with Clemson that extended him through December 2031. In doing so he became the second highest paid coach in college football (behind Nick Saban). Entering his 14th season at the helm, it made perfect sense to secure the pivotal keystone of the program. Swinney’s impressive record of two National Championships and six playoff appearances is second only to “You Know Who”.
This season would bring a change in staff with Brent Venables taking the helm at Oklahoma and Tony Elliott, Swinney’s longtime right-hand man, moving on to Virginia. The loss of Venables in particular was expected to be impactful to the Tigers defense. That unit had been a strength of the program since Venables took charge, going on a 10-year run that included finishing with seven top 10 defenses, three top five, and the nation’s No. 1 in 2014.
The cracks had begun to show last season though, and after four games their record read 2-2. A further loss to Pittsburgh saw them miss out on the CFP semi-finals for the first time since the 2014 format was put in place. They also failed to make the ACC Championship final, a game they’d competed and triumphed in since 2014. Instead, the 14th ranked Tigers had to settle for a trip to the Cheeze-It Bowl for a matchup against Iowa State.
If the contract extension was a statement of intent from the administrative hierarchy, then Swinney made one of his own by stating DJ is “our guy” for the starting quarterback role. The show of faith in the third-year quarterback was one that would hopefully bring confidence, as well as a return to the promise he showed as a freshman whilst subbing Trevor Lawrence in 2020.
Fast forward to November and it’s not looking good. Their loss last weekend to an unranked Notre Dame team has them falling out of the Top 10. As things stand, they seem to be facing another season with no playoff appearance. That contract signing press conference now seems a long way off.
ACC Domination
Clemson’s dominance over their ACC counterparts from 2015 has largely been due to their success along the defensive line. Entering 2022, they were first in conference play with 276 sacks dating back to (and including) the 2016 season. For context, Pittsburgh is in second place with 257.
From a homefield perspective Memorial Stadium has been a fortress with 38 consecutive home wins and counting. In conference play over the previous five seasons their 37 wins dwarfs Miami in second place with 27. Including non-conference play this figure goes up to a staggering 60 wins. NC State languishes in second place with 38. This is not a program who are content with just taking part. An ACC Championship is the minimum requirement each season with an eye on the CFP final.
So the question is remains, what has changed over the past 2 seasons? Why has Clemson gone off the boil? Is it any one thing, or a number of things?
Defensive Struggles
This season Clemson returned all their starters along a stacked defensive front. In 2021 the defense (without the injured Bryan Bresee) finished top five in EPA allowed. Entering this season, they were in the conversation for the best defensive front and expectations were high. The starting quartet of Bresee, K.J Henry, Tyler Davis and Myles Murphy consist of three five-star recruits and a four-star in Davis. Even rotational senior Xavier Thomas, (who’s had a start-stop career) was a five-star prospect.
The 2022 crop arguably has more talent than the record-breaking championship winning 2018 foursome of Clelin Ferrell, Austin Bryant, Dexter Lawrence and Christian Wilkins. They combined for 54 sacks in a season setting a new school record. They led the NCAA in yards per rush allowed (2.5) and were second in yards per play (4.2) and rushing touchdowns allowed (8). In all they were fifth in total defense with 285.9 yards per game and led the nation allowing 13.1 points per game. Nine of the 11 starters were drafted, giving comparisons to Georgia’s 2021 defensive class.
This season’s statistics in the same categories finds them competitive but far from dominant.
| 2018 Defense | 2022 Defense |
| 54 sacks (1st) | 23 sacks (32nd) |
| Yards per rush 2.5 (1st) | Yards per rush 3.5 (18th) |
| Yards per Play 4.2 (2nd) | Yards per play 4.8 (17th) |
| 8 rushing TDs conceded (1st) | 7 rushing TDs conceded (14th) |
| Yards per game 285.9 (5th) | Yards per game 334.2 (28th) |
| 13.1 points per game (1st) | 22.8 points per game (33rd) |
The rushing defense is still a force but they’re a long way off the aforementioned 2018 squad, despite their high-profile recruitment. They have however flashed in critical situations this season. Wake Forest’s final drive was stalled with persistent pressure up the middle. They forced Syracuse into six straight punts and suffocated their second half advance following a 21-7 deficit. In retrospect this group may not be the feared force that many expected, but let’s not kid ourselves – they’re still more than just a complement to an efficient offense.
QB Controversy
Since the early 2010s Clemson have churned out talent at quarterback and receiver. Taj Boyd didn’t have the longest NFL career, but was throwing to genuine stars in Sammy Watkins, DeAndre Hopkins and Martavius Bryant. Deshaun Watson took the starting job in 2014 over Cole Stoudt and despite injuring his hand the job was essentially his. In 2016 with a supporting cast of Mike Williams, Hunter Renfrow and Wayne Gallman, Clemson were national champions.
The question this season is around the production of the offensive personnel and a quarterback controversy that’s been brewing since spring practice.
Quarterback controversies are nothing new for Clemson. In 2017 three-star recruit Kelly Bryant led them to an 11-1 regular season record. That season they marched to the ACC Championship game, beating Miami but lost to Alabama in the CFP final. Bryant was a big-bodied athletic dual threat, who was not known for his accuracy and touch. Does this remind you of anyone on the current roster? Clemson got the most out of Bryant by using him as a running threat. In 2017 he threw for 2,800 yards, with 12 touchdowns to eight interceptions. On the ground Bryant ran for 665 yards and had 11 rushing touchdowns.
In 2018 a five-star recruit named Trevor Lawrence committed to Clemson. Despite being 16-2 as a starter, Bryant and Lawrence shared offensive snaps in the opening four games. Lawrence was clearly the more talented player and allowed Tony Elliot’s offense to be far more multi-dimensional in its approach. This also meant in Lawrence they had a potential future No. 1 pick and were confident they could win the CFP Final with him under center. Bryant did not take the news well and opted to take advantage of the transfer rules of the time allowing a four game redshirt year giving an added year of eligibility. It’s worth noting Clemson were 4-0 at the time and Bryant described it as a “slap in the face”.
Fast forward to 2022 and we have a similar situation. Five-star Cade Klubnik committed to Clemson as the No. 1 quarterback recruit and sixth overall according to 247.
DJ and the Offense
Trevor Lawrence is of course now in the NFL along with running mate Travis Etienne. Replacing Lawrence and Clemson’s all-time rushing yards and touchdown leader Etienne was always going to be a challenge. In running back Will Shipley they have a dynamic ball carrier who is described by his coach as the heartbeat of the offense. So what about the quarterback position?
DJ Uiagalelei’s career has been very up and down with the Tigers. When called into action following Trevor Lawrence’s positive Covid test he threw for record yardage by an opposing quarterback in South Bend. Despite losing the game he filled in superbly in his two games and the future looked promising.
In 2021 the offense fell well short of the 2020 unit’s success. Clemson’s first sub-10 win regular season since 2015 could certainly be attributed to the offensive struggles. As PFF stated in their preseason College Guide:
“Their passing offense went from 12th in the Power Five to 58th in passing efficiency year-over-year. Quarterback DJ Uiagalelei struggled to overcome his accuracy woes and turned in a 64.8 passing grade for the season”
PFF College Draft Guide 2022
Notre Dame Video Nasty
I re-watched his 2020 Notre Dame game and compared the progress (or lack thereof) to the 2022 version. This is by no means an exhaustive film breakdown of his play, but more a visual representation of consistent issues that appear time and time again.
In the first clip from the 2020 game, Clemson has two receivers on the open side of the formation. The #1 receiver is on a go route, whilst the slot receiver is on an out-breaking route to bait the safety. If the safety takes the bait, he hits the go route and if he doesn’t, he hits the slot receiver in stride for a short gain. Here he sees the receiver roll to the deep route on the coverage and takes the easy throw accordingly.
This clip is from the 2022 game and Clemson are running the same route concept. The safety again steps to the deep route but instead of taking the easy option, Uiagalelei he tries to throw some sort of floated back shoulder throw. I’m assuming this was the intention to keep a deep bomb away from the safety, but he should take what’s there rather than overthinking it.
Taking what is in front of him is exactly what he did in the next clip from the 2020 game. Here he reads the middle linebacker to see if he takes the bait on the hand off. If he does, there’s a nice big coverage hole between linebacker and safety. This is exactly what happens, and DJ unleashes a rocket for a nice gain.
In 2022 that confidence is gone. On this play he has three receivers to the field side on short in-breaking routes. Any of the three of these receivers could be hit for a short gain, leaving third and manageable when you’re 14-0 down. He’s staring at the #3 receiver whose momentum appears to be opposite of the linebackers in the seam/drop zone. Instead, he tucks and runs the ball and whilst he does gain about seven yards, you can’t ignore him passing up open receivers.
Back to 2020 again. Clemson likes to spread their receivers out and intersperse short throws baiting safeties. In this concept they have Cornell Powell on a deep route hoping to get inside leverage one on one with the corner. The two intermediate deep routes tempt the free safety and DJ unleashes his arm, albeit a little underthrown, to Powell for the touchdown.
This next clip was one of the ugliest moments of the 2022 game. For context they’re down 21-0 in the fourth quarter and need to get something going. At this point, Uiagalelei has already been benched and brought back into the game again. This time they have four receivers and leave the running back in to provide protection. The deep safety is stepping towards the field side and the #1 receiver on the boundary side is faced with press coverage.
On the snap the second safety takes a step inside, which leaves the outside receiver one-on-one if he can beat press, which he does. This ball should be thrown into the corner of the end zone for his receiver to win. Instead he doesn’t trust his arm and instead appears to under throw or back shoulder the ball. It’s unclear if he expected his receiver to jump ball this, but the placement was awful.
One thing of note whilst watching the two games above is Uiagalelei’s mechanics. His feet don’t align with where he’s throwing, and as a result the ball rarely comes out clean.
Dabo Swinney has now stated there will be a change if things can’t improve. If this happens, which it probably should, then I will be interested to see if the offensive scheme changes. Whilst Uiagalelei’s play has hamstrung the team, I also question the amount of short throws behind the line of scrimmage. This types of offensive design made them very predictable in recent games. Against both Notre Dame and Syracuse both teams flooded to the ball carrier and constantly put them in third and long situations, essentially setting DJ up to fail.
Transfer Portal & the Draft
The final point to mention is Coach Swinney’s reluctance to add quality from the transfer portal. I admire the loyalty to the players he personally recruited and sat in front of their parents promising their son an opportunity to shine. However, when you consider how other teams are using the portal to get stronger, Clemson could potentially get left behind.
Big name quarterbacks aside, Jahmyr Gibbs and Jordan Addison were transfers. As was Eli Ricks, who moved from LSU to Alabama. O’Cyrus Torrance moved from Louisiana to Florida and will likely be one of the highest interior players drafted. Unless you count Jackson Carman (and I’m sure Bengals fans don’t), Clemson have had no significant offensive lineman drafted in the past 10 years. Compare that with the defensive players listed previously and other notable alums such as Grady Jarrett, D.J Reader, Vic Beasley and Shaq Lawson and it’s clear something has to change.
Conclusion
So is it the defense not carrying the team as they’ve previously done? Are the offensive struggles solely to blame? Is it coaching and a failure to maximise the potential of their recent recruiting classes? Or are we not giving enough consideration for losing previous coordinators Venables & Elliott? As things stand I think it’s clear something needs to change on offense. You certainly wonder how much longer that decision will take.
Elsewhere in the ACC, Florida State is showing some life and Miami is throwing cash into Mario Cristobal’s regime. It is also worth mentioning North Carolina, who have a star at the quarterback position in Drake Maye and could oust Clemson as ACC champions this season.
As the man who’s paid the big bucks and has the new contract, this will fall on Coach Swinney’s shoulders to resolve. His proven résumé of success will give some confidence that he is capable of pulling the program back to postseason contention. His words after the Notre Dame defeat show he’ll continue to look forward to put his program in the best position possible:
“There’s not a single goal that’s not there for us, I know everybody wants to win the national championship, and we don’t control that. But what we do control is try to win this division, try to win the league, the state championship and win the closer, whatever that is”
Dabo Swinney
Maybe next season the rest of the ACC conference will be looking up with interest and expectation in closing that gap!
