There aren’t many teams that have disappointed as badly as the Eagles in 2020. Philadelphia had reached the playoffs in each of the last three seasons, including the memorable Super Bowl win in 2018. On paper they looked like one of the strongest teams in the NFC, with the pieces in place to succeed.
Fast forward to December and things don’t look so good. The Eagles are 3-7-1 with a -40 point differential, sat third in a historically poor NFC East. Everyone has their own theories of how and why this happened, but the biggest question is what they do about Carson Wentz moving forward.
The numbers
Wentz is certainly not the Eagles’ only problem, but he’s been the most glaring issue in almost every single game. This is obvious when you take a look at how his numbers compare to the rest of the NFL. The list below looks at some key quarterback stats and how Wentz compares. This is amongst the 31 quarterbacks with at least 200 dropbacks in 2020. Safe to say they don’t look good.
| Interceptions | 15 | 31st |
| Fumbles | 11 | 30th |
| Turnover-Worthy Plays | 29 | 31st |
| Sacks | 46 | 31st |
| EPA per play | -0.049 | 30th |
| CPOE | -3 | 31st |
| DVOA | -38.2% | 30th |
| QBR in a clean pocket | 83.5 | 30th |
| Air Yards Per Attempt | 3.7 | 20th |
The other concern will be that this regression is actually part of a downward trend. If you compare some of those key statistics over the past three seasons, Wentz has regressed in each category.
| 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | |
| EPA per play | 17th | 20th | 30th |
| CPOE | 4th | 20th | 31st |
| DVOA | 13th | 20th | 30th |
| QBR in a clean pocket | 9th | 21st | 30th |
The next numbers to consider are those relating to his contract. Wentz signed a four-year, $128 million deal with the Eagles in 2019. Next season his cap hit will almost double from $18.6 million in 2020 to $34.6 million in 2021. They are not locked into him in the long-term though and the Eagles have a potential get-out in 2022. Cutting Wentz would carry a $24.5 million cap hit, but would see them save almost $7 million.
With a proven path of regression and an opportunity to move on in 2022, the Eagles would be stupid not to explore their options. There are three main approaches they could take: start Jalen Hurts; draft a replacement in 2021; or stick with Wentz.
Option 1: Sit him for Jalen Hurts
Right now this seems like the most popular option amongst Eagles fans. It is understandable too. The Eagles didn’t spend a 2020 second rounder on Hurts just so he could sit as a backup. Whilst Hurts was never regarded as a top tier prospect, he played well in college. He has excellent accuracy on short and intermediate throws and adds another dimension with his mobility. There is a point to the argument that the Eagles need to see what they have waiting in the wings.
That said, its not necessarily as simple as that. For starters, benching Wentz would have a huge impact on his potential trade value. He might not be having a great year, but he’s still a well-regarded player with multiple years as a starter. It would be difficult to trade him anyway given his sizeable contract and benching him would make that even harder. Just look what happened to Nick Foles last year. After losing his starting job to Gardner Minshew, the Jags got just a fourth round compensatory pick from the Bears. Giving up on Wentz now could have a similar impact and that’s not something in anyone’s interest.
The other danger with this approach is the impact it could have on Jalen Hurts. With one of the weakest receiving corps in the league and an injury-wracked offensive line, there is no guarantee that Hurts would be an improvement. Putting him in this position could actually do harm to his long-term development as a quarterback. Even if the Eagles think he is the long-term solution, there is no rush to start him in 2020.
Option 2: Draft a replacement in 2021
I think this is the least likely option for the Eagles to take. Given their record so far though it isn’t entirely implausible either. Right now the Eagles are on course to have the sixth overall pick in the 2021 Draft. With their next three games against the Packers, Saints, and Cardinals, this could end up being a top five pick. Given the quality at quarterback in this year’s draft, they would be foolish not to consider it as an option.
They did spend a second round pick on Hurts last year but that shouldn’t stop them from swinging at the position again. There is a world of difference in quality between Hurts and the kind of player you could get in the top five.
It is unlikely they would get a shot at Trevor Lawrence or Justin Fields at this spot. It’s likely that one or both of Zach Wilson or Trey Lance will be available though. Both are tremendously exciting prospects with excellent collegiate careers. It isn’t every day that an opportunity like this presents itself. The Eagles have only picked inside the top ten twice in the last 20 years so maximising this chance is incredibly important.
That said, there are a handful of reasons to take a different approach. There are obvious holes on the Eagles roster at other positions that need to be addressed. They’re threadbare at receiver, with Travis Fulgham being the only consistent presence. Cornerback is another major need, with none of their starters grading above 60 in PFF’s coverage grade. They could even look to improve at linebacker with a player like Micah Parsons. In each case they have a shot at the top player in each of those positions in the 2021 Draft and that might be a more sensible approach.
Option 3: Stick with Wentz
The third option is probably the most likely, particularly if Doug Pederson keeps his job. Wentz unlikely to ever be a top ten quarterback in the NFL, but he could improve next season. Given their substantial investment, the Eagles will want to make sure before they make a final decision on whether or not to move him on. Whilst they are still improbably in contention for the playoffs, I wouldn’t place too much importance on that. Even if they make it they are unlikely to do anything of note against much better sides. They might as well consider the 2020 season a write-off and look forward to next season.
With Jalen Hurts on the bench they already have an insurance policy. Should Wentz’s poor performance continue into next season, they have a replacement who is already embedded in the team’s culture. They can spend the offseason strengthening the roster and putting Wentz in the best possible scenario to succeed. If that fails next season, they have an ideal opportunity to move on in 2022 and save on cap space.
Whatever happens this weekend against the Packers, the Carson Wentz situation will rumble on. Expect it to dominate the rest of the season’s narrative around Philadelphia and continue into 2021. A lot will depend on whether or not Doug Pederson keeps his job, but it will definitely be one of the more interesting stories to follow in the offseason.
