The playoffs are just around the corner and this year we have 14 teams to look forward to. Each of them brings their own strengths and weaknesses to the table. These are the biggest questions facing each franchise as they approach the postseason.
Green Bay Packers
Q: Will their defense limit their success?
Even in the postseason there are not many teams that can rival the Packers’ offense. With the presumptive MVP under center, a strong backfield and one of the league’s best receivers, the pieces are in place to succeed. Green Bay leads the NFL in offensive EPA and DVOA and are averaging a league-high 31.8 points per game.
It hasn’t always been as easy on the other side of the ball though. Green Bay’s defense ranks 11th in EPA per dropback and 17th in EPA per run this season. Per PFF they rank 15th in pass rushing grade and 22nd in tackling. Everyone remembers their spectacular collapse against the 49ers last season where they were utterly incapable of containing the run.
The good thing for Green Bay is that the worst may just be behind them. They have allowed an average of just 18.5 points per game through their last six outings, three of which were against playoff teams. With Aaron Rodgers playing the way he is that makes them a difficult task for any opponent. That said, if there is something that will stop them winning another championship, it will be their defense.
New Orleans Saints
Q: Can they stay healthy and end their playoff curse?
The Saints might not be the No. 1 seed in the NFC, but they are arguably the most well-rounded roster in all of football. The issue this season has been whether or not they can stay healthy. Michael Thomas was limited to just seven games, whilst Drew Brees is still only two months removed from suffering 11 broken ribs and a collapsed lung against the 49ers.
Alvin Kamara looks set to return in this one after missing last weekend’s game against the Panthers after testing positive for COVID-19. That said, he won’t be available for practice and it could take some time for him to get back to full fitness. It remains to be seen how high their ceiling is if they cannot rely on their leading rusher and receiver.
The other big focus will be on whether or not they are able to break their run of playoff exits. The Saints have been one of the most consistent teams in football through recent years, but their habit of falling at the final hurdle seems to be becoming a trend. Last year they lost on a controversial final play to the Vikings. The season before there was the infamous no-call on Nickell Robey-Coleman that saw them miss the Super Bowl, and in 2017 they were victims of the Minneapolis Miracle.
If they can retain a full complement of offensive weapons throughout the playoffs they will be one of the toughest teams to beat. Drew Brees might not be the player he once was, but this is a team with the potential to beat anyone on their day.
Seattle Seahawks
Q: Can Russell Wilson recapture his early season form?
Seattle’s defense may have been the focus of criticism throughout the season, but that is not the biggest question facing the team in the playoffs. They have quietly begun to turn things around and in their last eight games they have ranked 8th in EPA per play. They’ve improved notably in coverage: after allowing an average of 372.5 passing yards through the first half of the season they have given up just 228.9 through the second half.
The biggest question mark actually surrounds Wilson. His form has been in direct contrast to their defense, dropping off a cliff since the middle of the season. Through Weeks 1-8 Wilson ranked 2nd in EPA per play, 2nd in deep passing yards, 4th in yards per attempt, and 5th in TD/INT ratio. Since Week 9 he has dropped to 18th, 16th, 20th, 18th respectively.
This has not only been a decline by Wilson, but a return to more conservative play calling. The Seahawks ranked 1st in pass heaviness on early downs through Weeks 1-8 and logged a Pass Frequency over Expected of 11 per cent. They have since dropped to 5th place and to just 4 per cent since Week 9. If the Seahawks are to have any chance of success in the post-season they will need Wilson to get back to his best – it will be interesting to see how he performs.
Washington Football Team
Q: Can the defense carry this team to a win?
The NFC East was easily the worst and most underwhelming division in football. In truth, none of the teams could claim to be amongst the seven best in the conference, let alone worthy of the No. 4 seed. That said, Washington made it and will be looking to make waves against the Bucs in the Wild Card Weekend.
If they are to have any chance of progressing past this game it will be based on their defensive prowess. They jumped from 28th in EPA per play in 2019 to 3rd in the NFL, behind only the Steelers and Rams. Their front four has garnered plenty of credit, but their secondary was one of 2020’s unheralded units. Ronald Darby led the NFL in pass breakups and none of their defensive backs allowed a passer rating over 100.
There is no doubting the quality of this defense. The question is whether it is enough to carry a toothless offense. For all of the buzz surrounding Alex Smith’s miraculous comeback, the team ranks 28th in offensive EPA, with Smith ranked 33rd amongst quarterbacks, behind the likes of Carson Wentz and Nick Foles.
They have scored 30+ points just once this season and that was against the Cowboys. They have also managed just one win over a team with a winning record, their 23-17 victory over the Steelers in Week 13. This offense won’t win any shootouts and any success will come down to their defense carrying the team.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Q: Which version of the Bucs offense will we see?
Brady’s first season with the Bucs has been successful so far. Tampa Bay have made the playoffs for the first time since 2007 and Brady finished the year with 4,633 yards, 40 touchdowns and 12 interceptions. In doing so he becomes only the second quarterback in NFL history to throw for 40+ touchdowns in a season with two different franchises.
That said, the partnership hasn’t always worked. Despite an unrivalled array of receiving weapons, this offense has failed to show up at times. The 38-3 blowout loss to the Saints and the scoreless first half against the Falcons in Week 14 both come to mind, but these are certainly not the only occasions.
Much has been made of the Brady-Arians relationships and how the former Patriot is adjusting to a downfield, pass-heavy offense. Whilst some of this has gotten out of control, there are legitimate question marks over Brady’s performance. 14.9 per cent of his attempts have been 20+ yards downfield, ranked second only to Drew Lock (16 per cent). In spite of this he ranks just 23rd in Adjusted Completion Percentage on these throws. He will have a tough task in the Wild Card game as Washington have allowed just 21 passes of 20+ air yards all season.
If the Bucs can hit their ceiling then the sky is the limits in the playoffs. They have led the NFL in EPA per play since Week 13 and have averaged 37 points in that period. Their defense is strong too and they are amongst the most well-rounded teams in the NFL this season. If they keep up their current form, Brady’s seventh Super Bowl ring is a genuine possibility.
Los Angeles Rams
Q: Is Jared Goff good enough to win in the postseason?
Winning a Super Bowl is difficult at the best of times, but doing it without a top tier quarterback is almost impossible these days. Joe Flacco and Nick Foles are probably the only two quarterbacks to win it in the last fifteen years who won’t end up in the Hall of Fame. Both of those teams were built on the foundations of a great defense and the same can be said about this Rams team.
The biggest question though is whether or not Goff can overcome his limitations and take the Rams deep in the postseason. He has done it once before, but he hasn’t lived up to the form of his 2018 season. That year he ranked 7th in PFF passing grade and 8th in EPA per play. This season he sits 20th and 23rd respectively.
His recent form has been concerning and he missed their Week 17 matchup against the Cardinals with a thumb injury. He is likely to play this weekend against the Seahawks, but Sean McVay is still refusing to name a starter. There is no question about the Rams’ defense or their running game, but the team ranks 22nd in EPA per dropback, six places below the next worst playoff team in Pittsburgh. Any success will rest on improving this quickly.
Chicago Bears
Q: Can this offense perform against top teams?
Few teams can match the highs and lows experienced by the Bears this season. Whether it was dramatic early season finishes, quarterback changes, or their midseason slump, we saw all sides of this team in 2020. They have now become the first team in NFL history to make the playoffs after recording a six game losing streak.
The biggest question facing the Bears is whether or not their offense can perform against top teams in the postseason. They made headlines after registering four straight games of 30+ points, the first time the team have achieved this since George Halas was the coach in 1965. Through those four games, Trubisky ranked 9th in CPOE and 10th in EPA per play.
The big asterisk on those results was the opponents. Three of these games came against the three worst defenses in the NFL in the Texans, Lions, and Jaguars. The other was against the Vikings, who rank marginally better at 26th in EPA per play.
Trubisky had four games against other opponents, the Giants, Falcons, and two against the Packers. In those four games he had 818 yards passing, with six touchdowns and six interceptions. He ranked 34th in PFF grade, 35th in yards per attempt, and 30th in QBR. With a game against the Saints on the horizon, this offense will need to be at their best.
