It’s almost playoff time, and we have 14 teams ready and raring to go. The AFC once again appears to be a juggernaut, with a handful of legitimate Super Bowl contenders. With that in mind, here are the biggest questions facing all seven NFC teams in the 2022 postseason.
Kansas City Chiefs
Is their defense good enough?
It’s worth saying that finding any source of doubt about this Chiefs team is very tricky. For my money they are the clear best team in football and the deserving favourites for the Super Bowl. That said, there will be some lingering questions about their defense. This has by no means been a poor unit. When it comes to getting after opposing quarterbacks, only the Eagles have been more successful. The defense is pretty much league average when it comes to DVOA and sit 15th in yards per drive.
They aren’t particularly great though either, especially when compared to the other leading contenders for this year’s Lombardi Trophy. I don’t think this will be a major concern – it certainly hasn’t stopped them having success previously – but if there is any reason to doubt this team, it is their ceiling on defense.
Buffalo Bills
Can an inexperienced cornerback room hold up?
Much like with the Chiefs, it is difficult to find a major concern with this Bills team. If there is one though, it is their cornerback room. Tre’Davious White has returned down the stretch and is at least giving them a solid starter on the outside. The rest of the group is far less convincing though. Taron Johnson has shown flashes in the slot, but his seven touchdowns allowed are the most amongst slot corners. He also ranks second in yards allowed.
At the other cornerback spots they are most likely to rely on Dane Jackson, who has been solid but little more. Rookies Kaiir Elam and Christian Benford have both struggled when called into duty and opposing offenses will no doubt feel that this is a beatable unit. After all, Buffalo ranks 24th in EPA per dropback since Week 10 – for context, that’s below the likes of Washington, Houston, and Arizona.
Cincinnati Bengals
Can the offensive line hold up against top competition?
Not to sound like a broken record, but the Bengals’ offensive line is once again the biggest question mark facing this team. Their investment over the offseason certainly helped things but this is still a unit that ranked 30th in both PFF pass blocking grade and ESPN’s pass block win rate. Left tackle Jonah Williams has allowed a league-high 12 sacks and the seventh most pressures at his position. Left guard Cordell Volson has allowed the sixth most pressures and the fifth most sacks amongst interior linemen.
Joe Burrow deserves credit for his ability to mitigate this, namely by getting the ball out incredibly quickly. His 2.49 second average time to throw is a big reason why he owned the third lowest pressure rate amongst starters this season. The problem is that nullifies his ability to get the most out of the Bengals’ deep passing game. Just 8.9% of Burrow’s throws this season have travelled 20+ air yard. This ranks 30th across the NFL. We have seen bad offensive lines sink teams in each of the last two Super Bowls. Could it prove to be the Bengals’ Achilles heel again?
Jacksonville Jaguars
Can they finally find some consistency?
When this Jaguars team is clicking they are up there with the very best teams to watch in the NFL. The offensive is explosive under Doug Pederson, whilst Mike Caldwell has shown the ability to spice things up on the defensive side of the ball. They have had one big problem though – consistency. The Jaguars’ inability to find a rhythm on either side of the ball has cost them on a number of occasions this season and you just don’t know which team is going to turn up for any given game.
The numbers back this up too. The Jaguars’ offense ranks 25th in variance, a metric from Football Outsiders that measures consistency from game to game. The defense is only marginally better, ranking 24th. There’s no room for slow starts or off days in the postseason, and if Jacksonville can’t fix this soon it could torpedo any chance they have of upsetting the apple cart.
Los Angeles Chargers
Can their stars stay healthy?
The Chargers struggling with injuries is a tale as old as time. We’ve seen it derail their seasons before and it at times this year it almost looked like it might happen again. Keenan Allen, Mike Williams, and Joey Bosa have all missed time and they are still without left tackle Rashawn Slater. There was then Brandon Staley’s surprising decision to play all of his starters in a meaningless game against the Broncos that saw both Williams and Bosa leave early with knocks.
I don’t think that anyone would have any real doubt that when all of their stars are healthy that this Chargers team is capable of holding its own against the very best the NFL has to offer. On offense they have an elite quarterback, two great pass catchers, and a brilliant three-down back. On defense they have a pair of heavy-hitting veteran edge rushers and a young, talented secondary. When those guys miss time and they have to utilise their depth pieces it is an entirely different story.
Baltimore Ravens
Will Lamar Jackson be healthy?
I’m sure that this is the question that Ravens fans everywhere have been asking themselves for weeks. Lamar hasn’t played since suffering an injury against the Broncos in Week 13. Whilst at the time it was reported to be a short-term injury with a recovery of a few weeks, it has now been well over a month and there is still no sign of his return. He has now been ruled out of their wild card matchup against the Bengals.
It is going to be almost impossible to have any success without him. Since his injury the offense hasn’t exceeded 17 points and they are averaging just 12.5 per game. They rank 28th in EPA per dropback, whilst 35.5% dropback success rate is better than only the Cardinals since Week 14. Even if they manage to get the upset over the Bengals, they have little chance of going much further without him.
Miami Dolphins
Will Tua Tagovailoa make a return?
The Dolphins’ season was almost derailed by injuries to their quarterbacks. Tagovailoa is once again in the concussion protocol and some have suggested that he might not play again this season. He has officially been ruled out of their postseason opener against the Bills. Teddy Bridgewater at least made the gameday roster in Week 18, but a dislocated finger prevented him from getting the start.
The Dolphins have had to entrust the offense to rookie seventh rounder Skylar Thompson and it hasn’t looked great. He has played for six quarters in Weeks 17 and 18. In that period the Dolphins have just one total touchdown. Thompson ranks 26th in EPA per dropback and 31st in dropback success rate. It’s highly unlikely that they win against the Bills without Tua, but even if they do they willl need him back to have any chance of going all the way.
