Mel Kiper dropped his latest 2021 mock draft earlier today over on ESPN. Whilst there weren’t as many surprising picks as there were in his Mock Draft 2.0 in February, there were a fair few interesting selections. Here are three of the best and worst moves from his latest mock. You can read Kiper’s full list of first round predictions here.
The Best
Denver trade down at get Micah Parsons
Almost every mock draft over the last few months has had the Broncos taking a cornerback in the first round. With the signings of Kyle Fuller and Ronald Darby, that no longer looks like a major need. This leaves them free to address other spots and getting the long term solution at linebacker would make a tonne of sense. Josey Jewell and Alexander Johnson were solid enough in 2020, but both are free agents next summer and the Broncos need to replenish at the position.
Kiper has them trading back to No. 14 with the Vikings and still getting Parsons, which would be a major win for Denver. Parsons has some off-field concerns but on the field he is the best defensive player in the class. Whilst we didn’t get to see him play in 2020, there is a lot to like about his game. He is an excellent tackler, with just 11 misses on 188 career attempts. He is an elite athlete too, with 4.4 speed and prototypical sideline-to-sideline agility. Parsons would also shore up a Broncos run defense that ranked 20th in rushing EPA per play in 2020. His 94.8 PFF run defense grade is the second highest ever given to a college prospect.
The Vikings get Penei Sewell at No. 9
Kiper’s proposed Broncos/Vikings trade is one of the rare occasions where both teams are the winners. Whilst the Vikings would have to forfeit future draft capital, it would be worth it to get Sewell. Entering 2021, the Vikings’ offensive line is a clear weakness. With Riley Reiff now in Cincinnati, they are looking particularly thin at left tackle. Sewell would solve this immediately and could be a cornerstone of this franchise for years to come.
There isn’t much to say about Sewell that hasn’t already been said. The phrase ‘generational’ is over-used in draft circles, but Sewell deserves the label. At 6’5″ and 325 lbs he has prototypical tackle size but moves like a man 20 lbs lighter. He is excellent in pass protection, allowing just 15 pressures across 706 career pass blocking snaps. He can be a mauler in the running game too and is a nightmare when moving up to the second level. Sewell is still just scratching the surface of what he could become.
The Bucs get Christian Barmore at No. 32
It should come as no surprise as the reigning Super Bowl champions, but the Bucs don’t have any major weak spots on their roster. They are trying to run it back and did a good job bringing back all of their big name free agents for 2021. That said, if there is one spot where they could stand to improve is the interior defensive line. Vita Vea is excellent, but they have lost Ndamukong Suh and William Gholston will be a free agent next summer. This might not be the most glamorous pick, but it is a great one.
Barmore is the clear top prospect at the position and was one of the most dominant pass rushers in college football this season. He has the ideal size/athleticism combination and posted a pass rush win rate of 19.5 per cent. This ranked second amongst draft-eligible interior linemen. He finished the season with 39 pressures on just 324 pass rushing snaps and his best performances came against top competition in Notre Dame and Ohio State. Barmore would make an already impressive defensive front even more frightening.
The Worst
The Saints take Tutu Atwell at No. 28
The Saints managed to get their cap under control but only at the expense of several big names. They now look particularly short at wide receiver, cornerback, and linebacker. Whether it is Taysom Hill or Jameis Winston who ends up under center in 2021, the Saints need more quality behind Michael Thomas. As things stand, Tre’Quan Smith and Deonta Harris look like the presumptive WR2 and WR3. Both are decent players but the team could certaintly do with upgrading them.
Whilst taking a receiver at this spot makes sense, taking a player like Atwell doesn’t. He offers elite deep speed but right now is little more than a gadget player. 32.7 per cent of his receptions over the last two seasons have come behind the line of scrimmage. His route tree was incredibly limited at Louisville and at 5’9″ and 165 lbs he is tiny even for a slot receiver. Kiper has them passing up Rashod Bateman to take Atwell. Even if they are after a slot type, players like Rondale and Elijah Moore both offer more NFL-ready skillsets than Atwell.
The Bills take Najee Harris at No. 30
There aren’t a tonne of holes on the Bills’ roster, so superficially it might look sensible to take a player like Harris. He is clearly a talented running back, who offers an extra dimension as a receiver out of the backfield. That said, this is a pass-first offense under Brian Daboll. The Bills ranked third in early down pass frequency in 2020 and the idea that they will prioritise a running back in the first round seems counter-intuitive.
If this really is the Bills’ aim, there are better ways to go about it. The main one is to improve their offensive line, which has a far greater impact on rushing production than an individual running back. Jon Feliciano was their highest graded interior run blocker per PFF in 2020, but his 72.3 grade ranked just 52nd in the NFL. The Bills as a whole ranked 15th in Adjusted Line Yards, so if the goal is to improve their running game they would be better served by addressing their line.
The Raiders get Jamin Davis at No. 17
Davis has been one of the draft’s biggest risers over recent months and his performances with Kentucky this past season were very impressive. He has the ideal combination of size and athleticism and is one of the best run defending linebackers in this class. He looked good in coverage too, allowing a passer rating of just 66.6 in 2020. The positional fit makes a tonne sense for the Raiders, particularly given how disappointing Cory Littleton was this season.
Whilst I like Davis, this pick seems to be a reach – GrindingTheMocks has his estimated draft position at 100.7. It is also even more confusing when considering that Kiper has him going ahead of Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah, who falls to the Jets at No. 23. Owusu-Koramoah is streets ahead of Davis, particularly in coverage, which is where the Raiders defense really needs to improve. Davis played a simplistic spot-drop role at Kentucky and was rarely asked to do a tonne in space. Compare that to Owusu-Koramoah who is comfortable moving out to the slot and playing man coverage against receivers. It is also fair to wonder why the Raiders aren’t considering the offensive line at this spot given that they have just two returning starters in 2021.
