After Tom Brady’s spectacular un-retirement, the Bucs entered the 2022 season with hopes of another Super Bowl run. Whilst the team did manage to become back-to-back divisional champions for the first time in franchise history, the year still felt like a disappointment. They finished with an 8-9 record and fell apart in their wild card round fixture with the Cowboys, losing 31-14.
Roster changes
2022 marked the end of a short but successful period in the Bucs’ history. Tom Brady retired after three seasons with the team and he will still count a whopping $35 million against the salary cap this season. With Brady gone, Tampa Bay said goodbye to a number of other veterans, with Mike Edwards and Donovan Smith departing for Kansas City, cutting Leonard Fournette, and trading Shaq Mason to the Texans.
They made efforts to re-tool in free agency, though their lack of cap space meant that they did so with budget options. All seven of their free agent acquisitions join on one-year deals and the most expensive of these is former No. 1 overall pick Baker Mayfield, who joins on a $4 million deal.
Coaching situation
The Bucs’ turnover hasn’t just been to their roster, with a handful of notable changes to the coaching staff. Offensive coordinator Byron Leftwich was relieved of his duties after the 2022 season, with the offense taking a major step backwards in their first year without Bruce Arians.
Leftwitch has been replaced by Dave Canales, who spent 2022 as the Seahawks’ quarterback coach. Much of the rest of the offensive staff will also be new after a range of firings and retirements. Todd Bowles will continue to hold both the head coach and defensive coordinator roles and will need to show signs of improvement after a very disappointing 2022 season.
2023 NFL Draft
| Pick | Player |
| 1.19 | Calijah Kancey – IDL, Pittsburgh |
| 2.48 | Cody Mauch – OT, North Dakota State |
| 3.82 | YaYa Diaby – EDGE, Louisville |
| 5.153 | SirVocea Dennis – LB, Pittsburgh |
| 5.171 | Payne Durham – TE, Purdue |
| 6.181 | Josh Hayes – CB, Kansas State |
| 6.191 | Trey Palmer – WR, Nebraska |
| 6.196 | Jose Ramirez – LB, Eastern Michigan |
The Buccaneers got some much needed pass rush help with Calijah Kancey. The former Pitt Panther is an electric athlete who made his living in the backfield in college, though there are legitimate questions about how well he can hold up on early downs in the NFL given his size. Outside of that, there wasn’t a tonne about this class to get excited about. Cody Mauch was admittedly a nice addition in the second round, but the rest feel like solid additions at best.
Offense
Whatever you want to say about the Bucs entering this season, they still boast one of the better wide receiver duos in the NFL. Mike Evans has been one of the most consistent producers in football over recent years, with his nine straight seasons of 1,000+ yards ranking second behind Jerry Rice’s NFL record of 11. Chris Godwin has also been a very reliable pass catcher throughout his NFL career, with 5,666 yards and 32 touchdowns in six seasons.
Outside of that, things look very shaky. Baker Mayfield is currently in line to start at quarterback, and he has been very poor wherever he has been over the last few years. Mayfield has logged the highest pressure to sack rate in each of the last two seasons and he ranks 32nd in EPA per play since 2021. For context, that puts him below the likes of Taylor Heinecke and Andy Dalton.
The concerns around Mayfield are magnified further when you look at the offensive line. Tristan Wirfs is phenomenal, but he is moving over to left tackle, a position he only played sparingly in college. Outside of center Ryan Jensen, there are a bunch of big question marks. Matt Feiler allowed the fifth most pressures of any guard in 2022. Luke Goedeke will start at right tackle after struggling massively at guard last season. Cody Mauch is another unknown quantity. The rookie is penciled in at right guard, having played just three snaps there in six years in college.
Defense
The Bucs have had a reputation for talented defensive lines over recent years and that continues into 2023. In Vita Vea they have one of the league’s best nose tackles who is excellent against the run and the pass. Joe Tryon-Shoyinka impressed with 46 pressures in 2022 and could be primed for a big season. They will also be hoping that Calijah Kancey adds to their pass rushing arsenal, with the former Pitt defensive tackle racking up an incredible 47 pressures on just 275 pass rushing snaps in 2022.
Linebacker continues to be another strength for them. Lavonte David is still excellent and defying expectations for a 33-year old linebacker. His incredible football intelligence and ability in coverage allows the Bucs to turn Devin White loose as a blitzer to devastating effect. White’s 32 pressures in 2022 were eight more than any other linebacker.
The concern heading into 2023 is whether this team still has the requisite depth in the secondary. They let a bunch of players walk in free agency, including Sean Murphy-Bunting and three safeties. The four players combined for almost 2,500 snaps in 2022. This turnover will see Antoine Winfield Jr move back to safety, leaving a hole at nickel. They are likely to start Dee Delaney or Zyon McCollum. Delaney has spent most of his career on special teams, whilst McCollum played less than 300 snaps as a rookie in 2022.
Prediction
The Bucs have resisted a full rebuild this offseason, but with Baker Mayfield at quarterback and some serious question marks along the offensive line and in the secondary, it feels like they are primed for some major regression. They have an outside shot at a wildcard berth given how weak the NFC is, but in reality a losing season feels far more likely.
